to win these things, is this a must-call with AK?

[donkbee]

No idea how to play MTTs, so I have no idea how retarded this question is. Playing the million on Stars today because of the bonus they're offering to those who play it (see the post in OPR), and I found myself with a nice stack in the third hour.

My bankroll is such that any sort of cash in this tourney would be very very nice. Given that, how good or bad is this fold? What do short-ish stacks reraise all in with in EP? If I were playing to win this tourney, would this have been an instacall? Or am I retarded here?

I would still have 8k in chips if I called this and lost it.

PokerStars Game #5657889653: Tournament #27706165, $200+$15 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (200/400) - 2006/07/23 - 18:54:33 (ET)
Table '27706165 64' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: EightLarge (11957 in chips)
Seat 2: tonio(fr) (9432 in chips)
Seat 3: COOLSID (6425 in chips)
Seat 4: Carmel (1855 in chips)
Seat 5: jebrian (12762 in chips)
Seat 6: courtiebee (13810 in chips)
Seat 7: cuttack (5165 in chips)
Seat 8: nuts888 (314 in chips)
Seat 9: Headly69 (710 in chips)
EightLarge: posts the ante 20
tonio(fr): posts the ante 20
COOLSID: posts the ante 20
Carmel: posts the ante 20
jebrian: posts the ante 20
courtiebee: posts the ante 20
cuttack: posts the ante 20
nuts888: posts the ante 20
Headly69: posts the ante 20
Carmel: posts small blind 200
jebrian: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to courtiebee [Ad Kh]
courtiebee: raises 600 to 1000
cuttack: raises 4145 to 5145 and is all-in
nuts888: folds
Headly69: folds
EightLarge: folds
tonio(fr): folds
COOLSID: folds
Carmel: folds
jebrian: folds
courtiebee: folds
cuttack collected 2780 from pot
cuttack: doesn't show hand

[chardrian]

Yeah I'd call that because you are most likely a race at worst so you have odds to call.

You are most likely up against AK, QQ-, and maybe AQ. Because of stacks sizes, it is possible he'd play AA or KK that way too though so a fold in that spot is not as bad as I think you think it is.

[WildBobAA]

I would call.

[WildBobAA]

I should go into a little more detail. There's way too much money in the pot to be folding this. If he had like 9K chips you could get away from this but with only 5k this is a must call.

[Sprayed]

I have to agree with the analogy above.

[magneticskull]

I should go into a little more detail. There's way too much money in the pot to be folding this. If he had like 9K chips you could get away from this but with only 5k this is a must call.

WB,
I completely understand if after my "where is the button" incident, you completely disregard anything I say for a while...

Court is the big stack at this table. She only raised 2.5 BB, she will still be the big stack after folding.
AK is a race against any PP here, which given the decent size(table/blinds wise) of opps stack, is probably what she is looking at... I'm not a math guy, but is 4145 to win 6700-ish correct odds with AK off?

[tommyd7878]

Yes unless you're up against AA or KK. You are getting 1.6 to 1 on your money and are at worst a little less than 50/50..

[WildBobAA]

Part of being the big stack is being able to take coinflips like this and still be fine if you lose. Also, just because this is the million doesn't mean the players are automatically good. I would definatly put AQ, AJ, and JJ-99 in his (average million player's) range. Obviously if she had a read that he would only do this with AA-QQ then it's a fold but I dont' think you can get a read that good on a player this early.

[zenbitz]

This one is pretty close.
He can't put you on a steal UTG. He's short-ISH, but no where near redzoned. Since you are a big stack, he has to think you will call at 1.6:1.

I would put him on TT+/AK ONLY. And TT seems a little marginal.
36 pairs you flip
12 pairs dominate you
9 AK split.

It's close, but I think you should call "for metagame reasons". You don't want people to think they can push you off a raise with a r/r a/i.

[chardrian]

For the math nuts/pokerstove users out there it is a call of about 4150 to win about 11000.

4150/11000=.377

AK versus the following pretty tight range gives you an equity of about 43% which means you should call.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 43.1354 % 32.55% 10.58% { AKo }
Hand 2: 56.8646 % 46.28% 10.58% { 99+, AQs+, AKo }

Even with JJ+;AK you have the equity to call here as seen below:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.7855 % 23.66% 16.13% { AKo }
Hand 2: 60.2145 % 44.09% 16.13% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

But that's taking into account that you will be tying a lot of the time. So as I think I have said before, if you include AQ (or less) in your opp's range when deciding whether or not to call an all-in with AK, you should always call. If AQ is not in that range (i.e. you are only up against pairs or another AK) - a call is ok if you are a gambler, but a fold is fine as well.

[DaNutsInYoEye]

Also, just because this is the million doesn't mean the players are automatically good.

[knoedel]

I would always call that. A little over 4000 for a pot of just about 11000? Are you kidding poeple? Holding AK I would push this forever. Lowstacks push with AJ here...

If your chance of taking down this pot is only 40% its still worth it!

By the way: Most players would slowplay a monster in this situation, so they would just call or reraise little (begging for action).