My last hand from the Sunday Million

[Lukie]

I don't claim to be a tourney expert, as I almost never play them, but I was going back and forth in my mind about whether to push or fold this. FWIW I thought it was close, but a +EV, high variance play.

I had been playing very tight during an absolutely terrible run of cards, and everytime I had something even slightly marginal, there was already a push in front of me. So my image is very tight, and the table is playing tight as well, especially when it came to calling raises/allins.

Pot is 74k, stack is 415k, M of about 5.5. 5 Players to act after me. I don't expect calls from AJ/AQ type hands. I have KJs.

21 players left I believe, payout is ~3.5kish but will increase to about 5.5k after 1 or 2 more players bust. Prize pool is VERY top heavy, with first being about 175k.

Thoughts?

PokerStars Game #5661547250: Tournament #27706165, $200+$15 Hold'em No Limit - Level XXVII (20000/40000) - 2006/07/23 - 23:41:27 (ET)
Table '27706165 619' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Bad_reflex (414820 in chips)
Seat 2: Lukieplaya (414922 in chips)
Seat 4: scarface_79 (773471 in chips)
Seat 6: mycenter (683970 in chips)
Seat 7: betgo (702943 in chips)
Seat 8: AbusiveSmurf (1288508 in chips)
Seat 9: survival (545435 in chips)
Bad_reflex: posts the ante 2000
Lukieplaya: posts the ante 2000
scarface_79: posts the ante 2000
mycenter: posts the ante 2000
betgo: posts the ante 2000
AbusiveSmurf: posts the ante 2000
survival: posts the ante 2000
AbusiveSmurf: posts small blind 20000
survival: posts big blind 40000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Bad_reflex: folds
Lukieplaya: raises 372922 to 412922 and is all-in

[knoedel]

Hi Lukie, I don't play the limits you play usually, but have played the sunday million before. Why all in? why not just steal the blinds? I remember I pushed pocket Queens and got called by Kings and I am still wondering if I should have just reraised them to possibly be able to lay them down after the flop. But here you will only be called by stronger hands, and a lot of hands are stronger then KJ... I would have bet 100000 pre flop and folded to a raise. I know this really hurts your M and you will have to push any Ace and any pp/KQ afterwards, but if the table is tight the steal works out most of the times, doesn't it?

Or did you just lose your patience? I just don't see the need to push here!

[LimpinAintEZ]

fold your way to 6K? I fold it - advice wise, have to agree with guy above me -

[LimpinAintEZ]

if you can fold your way to 6K, I fold it - advice wise, have to agree with guy above me -

[zenbitz]

I think your position is too bad with a stack that small all 5 players left to act cover you.

I would make an exception if there were no stacks much shorter (1/2 or less) yours (in the tournament, not necessarily at your table).

It's pretty close though.

[IowaSkinsFan]

You're probably right about the calling range of opps. I'd extend it to QQ, JJ, and AQ because people can be kinda stupid. I think it's fine.

[Reidak]

I think this was a good move, if i did my math right then you sohuldve picked up 75K, which is huge for your stack. The only thing I did'nt like was the fact the 2k you risked in prize money. With a run of bad cards however you need to do what u need to do. Its tough but I feel i woudlve done the same.

[WildBobAA]

The only thing I did'nt like was the fact the 2k you risked in prize money.

2K may seem like a lot now but when you're deep in that tournament all you can think about is the 173k for first. If you try to fold to move up a couple spots I guarantee you will regret it later.

[fjuanl]

when i first looked at it, i didnt like it...and i wouldnt if it was a mid-stakes small freezout. but in a tournament this big so close to the final table, you have so much fold equity that i think this is ok

if they will only call you with AK/JJ+, you'll be taking the blinds roughly 85% of the time, even with 5 to act. Even if your destroyed when called, this is pretty +EV because of how many times you pick up the blinds

[drmcboy]

it's a weird spot where you would almost rather just be dealt a worse hand so you could fold.

This is a push assuming you want the 175k.

If the 2k is going to be a big boost to the BR, folding seems OK. But if that's the case, take the T$s instead.