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 Originally Posted by andy-akb
For us to make money when we hit, our opponent [essentially] needs to hit it as well, and what boards will they hit that is going to allow this to happen. Yea, we are getting 10:1 but what are we to hit two pair [and even then as we see thats not too great] or a strong draws?
Now, you say this board fills in some middle connected cards, none of them have a hand and only have a draw, we are ahead of them and if the board pairs we are couterfeited but we should be able to back down then. If we make a PSB our opponents make a mistake by calling with an OESD, we want them to call here with those hands, we dont want them to fold.
Its early in the tournament and Hero is investing about 1% of his stack. The risk/reward ratio here is excellent IMO. Hero hits the flop and is most likely ahead right now which is a good accomplishment considering the starting hand. So from my interpretation you are saying that either Hero needs to extract even more in order to justify his loose preflop call or should only call preflop with hands that his opponent can hit otherwise he can't make money playing hands like 85o in the SB?
And yes you want opponents to make mistakes, however Hero is in the SB and there are still 5 other players to act so a pot sized bet might be fine with one or two opponents, however with 5 half the deck could be poisonous and that isn't exactly a situation I want to be in with bottom two. So the question at this point is what should be done with the hand that probably has the best EV. The reason I prefer an overbet is that I think it has the better potential since it builds a bigger pot with what is likely the best hand right now, will shake loose some of the riff raff, and still has a good chance of being called, especially by those with strong draws such as 67(d), 79(d) or J9(d). Bottom two pair on a fairly coordinated board with with a flush draw against multiple opponents makes me a little defensive so I prefer to play them a little quickly on the flop.
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