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Terrible, Meh, or Goot?

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  1. #1

    Default Terrible, Meh, or Goot?

    The blinds are about to go up (100/200 + 25 ante) and both me and the SB have 1/3 the stack of all three of the other remaining players.

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

    SB (t2870)
    BB (t7785)
    Hero (t2400)
    MP (t7160)
    Button (t6785)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, 8.
    Hero calls t200, MP raises to t400, 1 fold, SB calls t300, 1 fold, Hero calls t200.

    What do you think of my initial preflop call? How should you play A8s 5-handed UTG with an M of 8?

    Flop: (t1400) 4, 4, Q (3 players)
    SB bets t1200, Hero raises to t2000

    I know the SB probably has a hand, Qx? Since the SB is committed to call my push its effectively 2000 to win 3400 so I have to win ~37% to break even (I think, if I can do math)

    Board: 4d 4s Qd
    Dead:

    equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
    Hand 1: 60.2291 % 60.23% 00.00% { Q2o+ }
    Hand 2: 39.7709 % 39.77% 00.00% { Ad8d }

    So what would you do here? Top 4 players get paid and everyone outstacks you 3 to 1 except the SB and blinds are about to go up. Walk away from the hand and play with 2000 at the 100/200 25 ante level? Or push?
  2. #2
    swiggidy's Avatar
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    You are not considering chipeV ~= $eV. You probably actually need to be 40-45%. There are ICM posts and stickies that discuss this idea.

    Don't limp UTG in a SnG, basically ever. You need to push or fold pre-flop, which means you should fold.

    Even when the blinds go up you have a healthy stack and are not in imminent danger.
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  3. #3
    18 man SnG on the bubble? A8s looks nice, but it's a fold here.
    Quote Originally Posted by Fnord View Post
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  4. #4
    Raise or fold preflop depending on the table - tight or loose


  5. #5
    ok now that we've established my preflop play was crap, how about the post flop play? standard?
  6. #6
    I dont like the postplop play either. SB is not going anywhere, and he probably has some sort of a hand (Qx or mid PP most likely) there is still one guy to act after you. so basically you are risking your tourney on hoping the flush will hit ~35%.
    You are short stack but not depsarate yet, I look for a better spot


  7. #7
    swiggidy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by swiggidy
    You are not considering chipeV ~= $eV. You probably actually need to be 40-45%. There are ICM posts and stickies that discuss this idea.
    This is for post flop.

    Fold

    {EDIT: I screwed up. chipeV != $eV, they are not the same. Your analysis is not considering the payout structure.}
    (\__/)
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  8. #8
    Pre-Flop. Either push or fold. Limping is really bad here
    Post-Flop. With your stack size I would push HU but fold in a 3-way pot
  9. #9
    terrible.
    for reasons already stated.

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