Big draw facing overaise

[andr3w321]

Can someone do the math and tell me making this call is profitable? Or maybe I'm just dumb and this is an autofold? There's virtually no fold equity so this is a pure math problem. If this is an autofold for you what kind of hand would you need to make this call? I'm curious to hear anwers. Obviously 2pair or better would call but what about straight flush draw or pair+flush draw?

***** Hand History for Game 4941014736 *****
$100 NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, August 13, 15:40:09 ET 2006
Table Table 106812 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: grandma772 ( $193.35 )
Seat 5: jage863 ( $100.91 )
Seat 3: DaddyDastard ( $39.85 )
Seat 4: kipintheuk ( $136.15 )
Seat 2: DonVito338 ( $81.74 )
grandma772 posts small blind [$0.50].
DonVito338 posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to grandma772 [ ]
>You have options at Table 108728 (No DP) Table!.
DaddyDastard calls [$1].
kipintheuk calls [$1].
jage863 folds.
grandma772 calls [$0.50].
DonVito338 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ , , ]
grandma772 bets [$2].
DonVito338 folds.
>You have options at Table 108728 (No DP) Table!.
DaddyDastard raises [$23.91].
kipintheuk folds.
>You have options at Table 108728 (No DP) Table!.
>You have options at Table 108728 (No DP) Table!.
grandma772...

[Renton]

insta fold

your draw is in no way big

[Irisheyes]

how could anything other than fold be even close to being a good option?

[andr3w321]

Wow I misread my hand lol I thought a 5 would give me a straight. I also think a 9 might be outs for me. But anyways what hands would you call with here. That was my main reason for posting. Imagine the 4 of spades is actually a 5 of spades.

[CavemanWins]

I would push on pair + flush draw though...

[Irisheyes]

Gutshot and FD is good to push.

[CavemanWins]

Lets see (If my math is wrong somewhere, please correct!):
For two cards to come (Pushing the flop)
FD+1Pr : 28 [14 = 9(flush) + 2(Trips) + 3(2Pr)]*2
FD+ GS : 24 [12 = 9(Flush) + 3(Str8)]*2
FD+ OE : 30 [15 = 9(Flush) + 6(Str8)]*2

To make the math easy, assume 46 remaining cards

28/46 = 60.86%
24/46 = 52.17%
30/46 = 65.21%

Looks like all are favorites to win, against top pair. (These numbers will go down slightly, because we didn't include the villains chance of improving)

It still hurts when you loose though:
Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($14.70)
Hero ($6.70)
BB ($10.25)
UTG ($4.25)
MP ($13.55)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, 5. Hero posts a blind of $0.05.
UTG calls $0.10, MP calls $0.10, Button calls $0.10, Hero (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($0.50) 3, 7, 6 (5 players)
Hero bets $0.3, BB folds, UTG folds, MP raises to $0.6, Button raises to $3.4, Hero raises to $6.6, MP folds, Button calls $3.20.

Turn: ($14.30) 2 (2 players)

River: ($14.30) A (2 players)

Final Pot: $14.30

Results in white below:
Hero has 8s 5s (high card, ace).
Button has Jd Js (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: Button wins $14.30.

[DaNutsInYoEye]

Even if you had the gutshot like you orginally thought I would still fold. You have 12 outs at best and your FD is only 9 high. I like being the initiator with hands like this and fold equity is an important consideration. Here you have little. I would just fold it. The pot isn't worth fighting for.

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