3-barrel bluff

[johnny_fish]

Villain is 30/1/0.7 after 90 hands. No history with him, I'm new to the table. He took all his time before calling the turn, so I put him on a draw or a weak made hand.

- Good/bad/meh?
- Is there any difference between betting 200 or pushing (~280)?

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $284
UTG+1: $476.87
CO: $527.24
Hero: $394
SB: $658.58
BB: $410.31

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with A Q
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises to $18, SB folds, BB calls, UTG folds.

Flop: 9 3 8 ($42, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $28, BB calls.

Turn: 6 ($98, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $65, BB calls.

River: 5 ($228, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $200

[gabe]

i would rather just push the river.

[MikeJee]

I can say with full confidence that I'm against 3 continuation bets with high card Ace against a caller with the stats you mention. I'm against it anyway. hmmf....how did this end up?

[johnny_fish]

I can say with full confidence that I'm against 3 continuation bets with high card Ace against a caller with the stats you mention. I'm against it anyway. hmmf....how did this end up?

Yeah, I suck. Fuck the reads, no FE here. FPS. Fuck poker. I quit.

[MikeJee]

Easy on yourself man, I wouldn't go that far.

Were you thinking he would eventually give-in to your bets? The thing is, with those stats I thought it was pretty obvious he had a decent part of that board.

How did this hand end up I'm curious.

[Robert]

I kinda like it against the right opponent, but isnt it kinda meh against an unknown?
But I like it because the board is scary and because he checked to you on the river

[johnny_fish]

He'll fold JT, missed FD and most one pair hands, some 2p/sets. I guess it's not that bad now that I think about it.

Results: He almost timed out but called with KK.

[Irisheyes]

I can say with full confidence that I'm against 3 continuation bets with high card Ace against a caller with the stats you mention. I'm against it anyway. hmmf....how did this end up?

Yeah, I suck. Fuck the reads, no FE here. FPS. Fuck poker. I quit.

QFT.

[aislephive]

Do you really play an overpair like that on this board? Just doesn't seem believable. I'd look you up with a lot of hands here I think. Just looks like you're cramming tons of chips into the pot praying that he folds, which is no doubt a reasonable strategy against people who don't know better or have zero hand reading ability.

[gabe]

uh...how would you play an overpair? i wouldnt check any of these streets with JJ

[aislephive]

uh...how would you play an overpair? i wouldnt check any of these streets with JJ

Reffering to the river bet.

Not saying I would never bet the river with an overpair here, but I never would bet close to the pot on that river with that board with JJ+. One liner to a straight, several possible two pairs combos, etc. Unless he was a super calling station who would go balls to the wall with bottom pair I don't see many hands calling that wouldn't beat an overpair unless you used the same logic I did before that he would never bet the river that hard with an overpair.

[bdawg56kg]

I don't think he's repping an overpair. More like a set or straight.

Johnny, I think the bluff is fine, but not against this guy.