Q8, 2nd shortest stack, bubble ($6.50)

[taipan168]

SB is a 43/4 calling station donk, BB is a TAgg 13/11. According to SNGPT if BB calls with top 10% (55+,ATo+,A8s+,KQs) and SB calls with any pair, any ace, any two broadway this is +0.6%. Shove here?

Poker Stars No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t100/t200 (Ante: t25)
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t6100
Hero: t1252
SB: t940
BB: t5208

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with 8 Q
UTG folds, Hero raises all-in t1227

[Scuba Chuck]

SB is a 43/4 calling station donk, BB is a TAgg 13/11. According to SNGPT if BB calls with top 10% (55+,ATo+,A8s+,KQs) and SB calls with any pair, any ace, any two broadway this is +0.6%. Shove here?

You're like so close to figuring this shit out. You answered your own question, now pose the only question that matters. What do you think of my calling ranges?

[taipan168]

You're like so close to figuring this shit out. You answered your own question, now pose the only question that matters. What do you think of my calling ranges?

That was my implied question. Given the reads I provided, do you think these calling ranges too tight?

[spoonitnow]

standard

[Scuba Chuck]

You're like so close to figuring this shit out. You answered your own question, now pose the only question that matters. What do you think of my calling ranges?

That was my implied question. Given the reads I provided, do you think these calling ranges too tight?

Dude, you've paid money for a cheater box, use it.

SB is a 43/4 calling station donk, BB is a TAgg 13/11.

[taipan168]

Dude, you've paid money for a cheater box, use it.

...and so what was the point of me posting this hand at all? This one could go either way depending on the calling ranges and I just wanted a line check to see whether I was out of line.

[Scuba Chuck]

Dude, you've paid money for a cheater box, use it.

...and so what was the point of me posting this hand at all? This one could go either way depending on the calling ranges and I just wanted a line check to see whether I was out of line.

Taipan, at this stage, if you're truly getting it, you need to begin to grasp some constant by which you can have some sort of strength in your decisions. If an HUD is not that for you, then you need to continue to search. But, for most, an HUD is the most telling. And a public message board is often times the worst.

[taipan168]

Taipan, at this stage, if you're truly getting it, you need to begin to grasp some constant by which you can have some sort of strength in your decisions. If an HUD is not that for you, then you need to continue to search. But, for most, an HUD is the most telling. And a public message board is often times the worst.

Given my reads, I was happy with the push. Just wanted to make sure I wasn't way off base.

[Scuba Chuck]

Taipan, at this stage, if you're truly getting it, you need to begin to grasp some constant by which you can have some sort of strength in your decisions. If an HUD is not that for you, then you need to continue to search. But, for most, an HUD is the most telling. And a public message board is often times the worst.

Given my reads, I was happy with the push. Just wanted to make sure I wasn't way off base.

SB is potentially calling looser. How does this change your answer?

[taipan168]

SB is potentially calling looser. How does this change your answer?

OK, let's make him a real donkey, say he calls with any pair, any ace or king, Q9+, J9+ and suited connectors down to 76s (because they look pretty). SB is then calling 40% of hands which is consistent with his VPIP (but given that I have him outstacked one would hope he was a little tighter than this). Then the push is -0.2%. Say both of his buttons say "call" (OK this would only happen at Party rather than Stars), this is +0.7%.

I guess this raises a couple of interesting issues (which may already be obvious):
- SB's calling range has a much lesser impact on the + or -EV of this push than BB's calling range, so if I have BB read correctly as a tight player then SB's calling range actually doesn't matter all that much
- There is an inflection point with SB's calling range, as it gets looser the push turns from +EV to -EV to +EV again (since Q8s is ahead of the average hand)

I guess the overall question is - should I make a push that is probably marginally +EV but may be marginally -EV depending on how loose SB calls (assuming I have BB's calling range right). I read something in a Carpal Tunnel post by somebody on 2+2 that said that it is better to make a -EV push than miss a +EV push.

[Scuba Chuck]

SB is potentially calling looser. How does this change your answer?

OK, let's make him a real donkey, say he calls with any pair, any ace or king, Q9+, J9+ and suited connectors down to 76s (because they look pretty). SB is then calling 40% of hands which is consistent with his VPIP (but given that I have him outstacked one would hope he was a little tighter than this). Then the push is -0.2%. Say both of his buttons say "call" (OK this would only happen at Party rather than Stars), this is +0.7%.

I guess this raises a couple of interesting issues (which may already be obvious):
- SB's calling range has a much lesser impact on the + or -EV of this push than BB's calling range, so if I have BB read correctly as a tight player then SB's calling range actually doesn't matter all that much
- There is an inflection point with SB's calling range, as it gets looser the push turns from +EV to -EV to +EV again (since Q8s is ahead of the average hand)

I guess the overall question is - should I make a push that is probably marginally +EV but may be marginally -EV depending on how loose SB calls (assuming I have BB's calling range right). I read something in a Carpal Tunnel post by somebody on 2+2 that said that it is better to make a -EV push than miss a +EV push.

OK, now you're thinking (and that is my primary objective). This is fun for me/us now. Giving answers ...not so fun.

Regarding 2+2, in isolation, I don't like that comment. Clearly that person is saying that aggression is profitable, and that is the truth. But, if you know that something is -EV and you shove, and you know something is +EV and you fold, both of those are mistakes. I think he is referring to missing/making those mistakes without knowledge at the time (referring only to learning) of play.

Back to the hand.

SB is potentially calling looser. How does this change your answer?

OK, let's make him a real donkey, say he calls with any pair, any ace or king, Q9+, J9+ and suited connectors down to 76s (because they look pretty). SB is then calling 40% of hands which is consistent with his VPIP (but given that I have him outstacked one would hope he was a little tighter than this).

I'm going to direct your focus to your last statement. Why would you hope he is going to change the way he's been playing all along? Doesn't this diminish your edge? Besides preflop hand selection, another edge you have is patience and knowledge. Throwing these out the window is just giving away EV and ROI. Furthermore, thinking that a donkey short stack is all of a sudden going to tighten up is hopeful, but not strategic. Conversely, mathematically, it's actually incorrect for him to do so. We could argue that he should be calling wider against pushes from you. (wrap your fingers around that )

I guess this raises a couple of interesting issues (which may already be obvious):
- SB's calling range has a much lesser impact on the + or -EV of this push than BB's calling range, so if I have BB read correctly as a tight player then SB's calling range actually doesn't matter all that much
- There is an inflection point with SB's calling range, as it gets looser the push turns from +EV to -EV to +EV again (since Q8s is ahead of the average hand)

There is nothing to say here other than you are getting into the details. The better you are at understanding these situations the more you can begin to apply the theory of these situations to a much broader set of circumstances (thus increasing your ROI).

[TLR]

It has been a very intersting thread.

I push this in a heartbeat