Bottom two - check my line ($6.50)

[taipan168]

Opp had been sort of loose passive, say 30/0. How is this line? I don't usually overbet the flop like this but I was hoping to elicit a raise from a K and to give the flush or straight draws bad odds to chase. On the turn, MP2 has 925 behind.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 (t930)
MP2 (t1215)
CO (t1415)
Button (t1550)
SB (t2150)
Hero (t2990)
UTG (t1400)
UTG+1 (t1850)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6, 7.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t50, 1 fold, MP2 calls t50, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t200) 6, K, 7 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t240, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls t240, SB folds.

Turn: (t680) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets t1800

i don't like it. your two pair is probably good, so theres no need to overbet here. a pot-sized raise would have been better for two reasons. first, it is enough to deny your opponent the proper pot odds to call without jeopardizing a large chunk of your stack. second, his initial call makes me think he's holding a K and not a set or made straight; since you likely have him beat you want to extract more chips, not push him away. if you get reraised, he may be on a set or straight and you're done with the hand. if you get called, he's probably chasing a flush so watch that on the river.

[taipan168]

On the turn, opp has 925 behind, so I'm essentially just putting him AI. If I bet pot on the turn and he pushes, I'm not laying down the hand for another 245 chips, am I?

Even if I just bet pot on the flop, pot would be 600, opp would have 965 behind, same story, no?

[baudib]

i think you played it well. There's probably no hand I play more aggressively than bottom two on a board like this (two small pair, one big card on the flop). Half the deck or more is scary on the river, few cards help you, so get it all in on the turn.

[Scuba Chuck]

give the flush or straight draws bad odds to chase.

When will you graduate from this fear?

Your strategy to illicit a raise from a K is cogent. Do you think illiciting a raise is created more by an overbet or a donkbet? What is the % of time that a club hits on the turn? How much do you need to bet for him to be incorrectly draw priced but still look like a donkbet? How should you play the turn if a club hits? If called, is it easier to play the turn with a heavy flop bet or a light bet? If the turn is a club, and you've decided you're only willing to play pot odds to a boat, what are they? When will you quit playing the $6.50s.

[Scuba Chuck]

i think you played it well. There's probably no hand I play more aggressively than bottom two on a board like this (two small pair, one big card on the flop). Half the deck or more is scary on the river, few cards help you, so get it all in on the turn.

I think this is a half truth in it's value. I think we often overlook situations when just looking at a post. In this hand, hero has nearly 60 bbs behind, so if a scare card does come on the turn, we can revert to playing for a small pot or let it go.

As to the hand in question, hero's line is obviously fine. Also, villain has committed 25% of his stack into this hand, and the turn card is not horrible, but a little awkward. So checking and shoving both look good and bad. I think that once villain has committed such a huge portion of his stack on the FD, there's a good chance he'll chase on the turn.

We should first discuss the fact that the only likely set on this board is KKK. Strangely enough, this hand is not as uncommon as we might think because it's a LAP who plays 30/0.

Other than that, Kx and the FD are certainly the most likely holdings, with 89 & 45 somewhere in the mix as well.

On the turn, if I were to overbet, I would actually bet 200 chips less than his stack, but it's not relevant.

[baudib]

Letting a scare card hit and check-folding to a big bet is totally bogus.

[taipan168]

give the flush or straight draws bad odds to chase.

When will you graduate from this fear?

The problem is that low buyin players LOVE their flush draws such that you have to give them truly horrendous odds to chase. Maybe this doesn't happen at the $16s, $27s and $60s but if there are 2-3+ players in a hand and 3 of a suit come out, there's a bloody good chance one of them has 74 sooooted.

Your strategy to illicit a raise from a K is cogent. Do you think illiciting a raise is created more by an overbet or a donkbet?

Again, on a more aggressive table I would have bet 80-100, hoping that somebody had a K and would raise me. The problem is that on these loose passive tables they will just call with a K as much as with a flush draw, and when that third club hits...

What is the % of time that a club hits on the turn? How much do you need to bet for him to be incorrectly draw priced but still look like a donkbet?

Assuming opp is on the club flush draw, then a club hits the turn roughly 18% of the time. Therefore, for opp to make a correct call assuming that I won't check the turn if he calls my flop bet my bet needs to be 45 or below. So I could have just bet 50 here and he would have been getting incorrect odds to call.

How should you play the turn if a club hits? If called, is it easier to play the turn with a heavy flop bet or a light bet?

I would probably fire again regardless, sure the guy could be on the club flush draw but to just check/fold is just terribly weak IMO given everything else he might hold. If I was going to fire again, naturally it would be much easier to play if the pot was smaller as a result of smaller flop bet.

If the turn is a club, and you've decided you're only willing to play pot odds to a boat, what are they?

Not great. 2 6s and 2 7s = ~8% chance to hit on the river.

When will you quit playing the $6.50s.

This is the most interesting point. Something you posted on a reply to one of my posts a little while back really made me think. I wonder whether my development as a player is stagnating because I do play $6.50s and $11s so need to make decisions that are +EV at low buyins that would be -EV at higher buyins because the players are so bad.

My plan is to move up to the $16s when my BR hits 50 buyins. I've had a few shots at the $16s when my BR does get over $800 but every time I take a shot I finish OOTM. After 12 games (yes I know microscopic sample size) I am -44% ROI. Not sure why I feel the need to have 50 buyins (I could reload my BR with one day's pay) but maybe I'm just too inherently conservative with my money to be a good poker player.

When I lived in New York City 5-6 years ago I spent a lot of time with a school friend of mine from Australia. He comes from quite a famous Australian poker-playing family. At the time he was a lawyer at a Wall St firm and grossed about $125,000 so took home about $6-7,000 per month. He played every night until 3am at the 5/10 and 10/20 NL games at the Mayfair and Diamond Clubs and there were quite a few months when I had to pay his rent for him because he was stuck $20,000 or more. Conversely there were nights when we spent up big at Nobu and Gramercy Tavern because he had won big (once, notably, from Dan Harrington).

I just don't have that sort of gamble in me.

Apologies for a long and rambling post.

[TLR]

With lots of limpers preflop you are probably ahead but there are multiple draws, you definitly have to bet the flop, but I think I bet a little less, proabably in the 160-180 area.

Te turn card is not that bad for you the only hands that villian has that take you from ahead to behind are 55, 43 which are unlikely, K5 which is as possible as any other Kx there, and 89.
So you are probably ahead still, I wouldbet around 550, if he calls he is pot comitted, which is good for you, I dont want to scare villian away here, I want him to put all his money in when he is behind

And I think you are definily good enough to move to the $16

[taipan168]

And I think you are definily good enough to move to the $16

Thanks

[Scuba Chuck]

give the flush or straight draws bad odds to chase.

When will you graduate from this fear?

The problem is that low buyin players LOVE their flush draws such that you have to give them truly horrendous odds to chase. Maybe this doesn't happen at the $16s, $27s and $60s but if there are 2-3+ players in a hand and 3 of a suit come out, there's a bloody good chance one of them has 74 sooooted.

This "chasing" (thankfully) never ends no matter the buyin. Get used to it.

How should you play the turn if a club hits? If called, is it easier to play the turn with a heavy flop bet or a light bet?

I would probably fire again regardless, sure the guy could be on the club flush draw but to just check/fold is just terribly weak IMO given everything else he might hold. If I was going to fire again, naturally it would be much easier to play if the pot was smaller as a result of smaller flop bet.

If yoda was your mentor he would say something like "this is why you fail." If you want to spend more time thinking about this and respond again, I will discuss further. But check/call is a more superior line if a third club hits rather than bet. (And, why do you have this feeling/attitude about c/f being terribly weak?)

When will you quit playing the $6.50s.

This is the most interesting point. Something you posted on a reply to one of my posts a little while back really made me think. I wonder whether my development as a player is stagnating because I do play $6.50s and $11s so need to make decisions that are +EV at low buyins that would be -EV at higher buyins because the players are so bad.

My plan is to move up to the $16s when my BR hits 50 buyins. I've had a few shots at the $16s when my BR does get over $800 but every time I take a shot I finish OOTM. After 12 games (yes I know microscopic sample size) I am -44% ROI. Not sure why I feel the need to have 50 buyins (I could reload my BR with one day's pay) but maybe I'm just too inherently conservative with my money to be a good poker player.

When I lived in New York City 5-6 years ago I spent a lot of time with a school friend of mine from Australia. He comes from quite a famous Australian poker-playing family. At the time he was a lawyer at a Wall St firm and grossed about $125,000 so took home about $6-7,000 per month. He played every night until 3am at the 5/10 and 10/20 NL games at the Mayfair and Diamond Clubs and there were quite a few months when I had to pay his rent for him because he was stuck $20,000 or more. Conversely there were nights when we spent up big at Nobu and Gramercy Tavern because he had won big (once, notably, from Dan Harrington).

I just don't have that sort of gamble in me.

Your issue is confidence, not gamble.

[JeffreyGB]

Tai, the thing is, you want them to draw against the odds. The only argument for betting more here than at higher limits is that it gets called here when it might not there. The worse odds your opponents will take, the better it is for you. But your goal is not to keep them from drawing - just to keep them from doing so with the proper odds. That it needs to be enough to negate implied odds to some extent bears consideration, but any 1/2 pot+ bet will achieve account for this.

[JeffreyGB]

And I agree that you're more than adequately skilled to beat the game above 6.50's. I would be surprised if you didn't beat the game at the 22's.

[Scuba Chuck]

Tai, the thing is, you want them to draw against the odds. The only argument for betting more here than at higher limits is that it gets called here when it might not there. The worse odds your opponents will take, the better it is for you. But your goal is not to keep them from drawing - just to keep them from doing so with the proper odds. That it needs to be enough to negate implied odds to some extent bears consideration, but any 1/2 pot+ bet will achieve account for this.

Well said. Hopefully OP will read the first part of your last sentence enough times to understand the entire concept (and to why Yoda is disappointed in him).

[taipan168]

Thanks Scuba and Jeffrey, this is all VERY helpful. A properly considered reply needs more time than I have now so I'll mull on it and post later.

[taipan168]

How should you play the turn if a club hits? If called, is it easier to play the turn with a heavy flop bet or a light bet?

I would probably fire again regardless, sure the guy could be on the club flush draw but to just check/fold is just terribly weak IMO given everything else he might hold. If I was going to fire again, naturally it would be much easier to play if the pot was smaller as a result of smaller flop bet.

If yoda was your mentor he would say something like "this is why you fail." If you want to spend more time thinking about this and respond again, I will discuss further. But check/call is a more superior line if a third club hits rather than bet. (And, why do you have this feeling/attitude about c/f being terribly weak?)

OK, I've been thinking about this over the last few days, and the answer I came up with is that check/call is a superior line if a third club hits because of the following:
- One of the purposes of betting (whether 1/2 pot or some other amount) is to give opp bad odds to draw. Once the third club hits, if we believe that opp was chasing, there is no more need to "protect" our hand (unless of course opp is chasing a backdoor flush). I suppose it is the opposite of why we would bet if the turn was a non-club.
- If we really believe that opp has been chasing the flush and has now gotten there, check/call may minimise the amount that we will need to pay to get to showdown. There is no point putting unnecessary chips in the pot, and if opp has indeed hit the flush, betting is wasting chips because a) opp won't fold and b) we are putting in chips with the worst hand. If opp doesn't have the flush, he/she will likely be spooked by the flush too (thinking that we are slowplaying) and may give a free river card.

Is this way off base?

Concerning why I feel that check/fold is weak, my poker-playing friend told me very early on, "it is rarely incorrect to bet". Maybe he was just trying to get me out of the calling station phase that most new players That mantra has, probably to my detriment, stuck with me ever since. But there is nothing wrong with check/folding and is often the correct line (and there are plenty of times I do check/fold!).

Your issue is confidence, not gamble.

Yes, it probably is. Maybe I just need to take more shots at the $16s/$22s, 50 buy-in rule be damned (I still have at least 45 buyins at the $16s so 50 is probably an artificial goal that I've used as an excuse not to move up).