Starfleet Selections: NFL Week 1

[ensign_lee]

Woohoo! The NFL Season is upon us!

I didn’t do so well in preseason, so you might want to take that into account when choosing to follow or fade me for the year. Still gonna chug forward though!

A few differences from what I was doing in preseason:
1) This time, whenever I am laying -101 or worse, I will be playing TO WIN one unit, instead of RISKING one unit
2) I won’t be playing as many games as I did during preseason; hopefully, preseason “betting the board” got that out of my system

And a few notes on my plays for the season:
1) I’ll be using Skybook’s half point a lot through the season. I’m just going to go ahead and put the effective line into my posts. For example, if I bet HOU vs. PHI (currently +4), I’ll just go ahead and write HOU +4.5, because that will already take into account the half point.
2) If you see some funky decimals in my pricing, that probably means that I made the bet at Matchbook or Mansion, so I’ve already taken their commission into the bet, regardless of whether I win or not.
3) I also am participating in the Mansion bet of $1100 to win $1000 on PIT -5. If I win, I will include it in my units won/lost, but not in my record.

Here’s what I bet on before preseason even started (these will count towards the record)

NE -9.5 vs. BUF (+103) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
TEN -3 vs. NYJ (+109) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
SEA -3.5 vs. DET (-106) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
SD -3.5 vs. OAK (+129) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
NO +3 vs. CLE (-109.2) @ Matchbook for 1 unit

And here’s what I’m betting now that preseason is over:
CHI -3.5 (-106) vs. GB @ Pinnacle for 2 units

And here’s what I’m looking at, but may or may not bet:
HOU moneyline or +4.5 (homer bet)
HOU/PHI OVER 38.5 (or buying to 38)
Increasing my SEA bet to 2 units

If you want to see any reasoning on these picks, I put some reasoning up for the bets I made before preseason at the following thread: http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=395322

Here’s to FOOTBALL!

[flomo]

good luck this week

[blade]

i like the SEA and CHI plays a lot. good luck ensign.

[ensign_lee]

Thanks, guys.

Here's some plays I added since I last posted:
HOU +4.5 vs. PHI (-106) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
PHI/HOU Over 37 (-102) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
ARI -4.5 vs. SF - first half (-113) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
NO/CLE UNDER 36 (-110) @ BetJamaica for 1 unit
CIN +3 vs. KC (-120) @ BetCris for 1 unit

~~~
The Seattle line shot WAY the hell up to -6. So I'm just gonna stand pat for now. Holy crap.

[ensign_lee]

Taking the skybook freeplay and sticking it on the following 7 team parlay:

Miami Hurricanes -3.5 (-110)
Seattle -5.5 (-115)
Houston/Philadelphia OVER 37 (-110)
Cleveland/New Orleans UNDER 36 (-110)
Cincinnatti +2 (-110)
New England -8.5 (-115)
Chicago Bears -3.5 (-110)

5 units of freeplay. WoohoO!!

Let's hope a little pixiedust can help this parlay come in.

[ensign_lee]

Well, so much for that parlay: one and done.

Allright:

I like to play a teaser every now and then and am a big fan of the three team teaser.

So here goes:
ARI -1.5
NE -2.5
PHI/HOU OVER 31

2 units (+180) @ Skybook.

[ensign_lee]

One more play for now:

Arizona -7 (-120) @ Skybook for 1 unit.

[ensign_lee]

I was holding off, but a well respected capper of mine posted this as his one play for the week.

Den -3.5 (-110) @ Pinnacle for 2 units

[kingnat]

I'm going to use some of that free money from Sportsbook to venture out a few bets this year.

I'm putting 1 unit on Cincy (+2) over KC, and 1 unit on Denver (-3.5) over St. Louis. I'm even a Rams fan too... how depressing!

I hope other posts are welcome in this thread.. if I need to be more stadardized with the listing of my bets I can try to comply, but to honest I haven't done this since HS.

[ensign_lee]

Great to see you posting, nat. You can post your picks in here, no problem!

Speaking of which...For thursday night, I will go with:

PIT/MIA UNDER 34.5 (-110.1) @ Matchbook for 1 unit



and GO STEELERS!

[ensign_lee]

The Under bombed.

BUT PITTSBURGH COVERED WOOOOOH!

I don't even care that it bombed, 'cause PITTSBURGH COVERED THE -5! WOOOH! On second thought, I'm not gonna include it my record, but I WILL STILL CELEBRATE! WOOOOOH!


~~~
So that would make my YTD record as follows:

YTD: 0-1
Units won: -1.1

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 0-0
-101 to -110: 0-1
+100 to +110: 0-0
+111 to +125: 0-0
+125 to +185: 0-0
+186 to +300: 0-0
+300 onwards: 0-0

<1 unit plays: 0-0
1 unit plays: 0-0
2 unit plays: 0-0
3 unit plays: 0-0

[ensign_lee]

Oh: and kingnat. If you're going to lay +2, I think you'd be better off taking the moneyline. So few games end on 1 or 2, that the one game that you lost because you didn't have +2 will not make up for all the extra juice you will have to pay through the years on these bets.

Take the moneyline on Cincinatti at plus money.

[Phantaroth]

Hi im new to sports betting...

Next to the lines there is always (-number) etc.

In the FAQ I believe it said the bets will have that if there are no +4 -4 thingys, but all of the ones I see still have (-number). What does that mean?

Also, im picking games this week without betting just to see how I do.


Bills +10 vs pats ------- under 41
Falcons vs panthers +5 ------- Over 39
SF vs Arizona +7 1/2

What you think bout these 3? I'm onlty showing the ones i'd maybe bet on as underdogs... I picked every game just for practice tho.

[zook]

I said I was going to stick to poker this year, but after the Mansion bet came through I decided to leave a little in my account to play with. Here are my plays for opening weekend:

PHI -4.5 (-110) over HOU (1 unit) - sorry lee
SDG -3 (+105) over OAK (1 unit)

[elipsesjeff]

I disagree with your Chicago bet (being a chicago native and follow them more closely). -3.5 is horrible as nearly EVERY game is decided in 3 points or less between the Packers and the Bears. I would have chosen Chicago at PK if possible or Greenbay +3.5.

I've just got a bad feeling at Chicago at -3.5.

[ensign_lee]

In the FAQ I believe it said the bets will have that if there are no +4 -4 thingys, but all of the ones I see still have (-number). What does that mean?

Um....what?

What you think bout these 3? I'm onlty showing the ones i'd maybe bet on as underdogs... I picked every game just for practice tho.

Well, if you look at the above bets of mine, I disagree.

Last year was a big abberattion, a lot of people say, where favorites covered at a TORRID clip. This meant that if you had just blindly bet on EVERY favorite through the year, you would have done better than some professional handicappers. I started sportsbetting during this time, so my views may be skewed.

However, I believe that there exists a talent gap now in the NFL between the elite teams and the have-nots. This last draft class, which was strong through the first THREE ROUNDS (amazing, really), benefitted every team, not just those with top picks. As such, I think talent gap will continue to grow for a little bit until the rookies picked by the have-not finally have time to mature.

That's why I don't ever try to bet on the Bills or the 49ers, or the Saints, or the Browns. I also take into account the offensive lines on these teams and well, to put it midly, they're horrible. Games are won and lost in the trenches.

That's why I disagree with your +10 on Buffalo (though you did get a good number if you were going to bet on BUF) and your +7.5 on San Francisco.

But those are just my thoughts. This is my first real year tracking my bets, so yeah.

[ensign_lee]

I disagree with your Chicago bet (being a chicago native and follow them more closely). -3.5 is horrible as nearly EVERY game is decided in 3 points or less between the Packers and the Bears. I would have chosen Chicago at PK if possible or Greenbay +3.5.

I've just got a bad feeling at Chicago at -3.5.

Well, a little late for me now. I think Chicago's D will get the job done, though.

[ensign_lee]

I said I was going to stick to poker this year, but after the Mansion bet came through I decided to leave a little in my account to play with. Here are my plays for opening weekend:

PHI -4.5 (-110) over HOU (1 unit) - sorry lee
SDG -3 (+105) over OAK (1 unit)

You bet AGAINST MY TEXANS?!?!

That's it! NO SOUP FOR YOU!

Seriously, though. If you're going to be on Philly, you need to find a place to get -4, and NOT -4.5. When you lay -4.5, you are essentially saying Philly has to beat Houston by a touchdown or you lose. When you lay -4, you are essentialyl saying Philly has to beat Houston by a touchdown, but if Houston gets a field goal when down by a touchdown, you'll only tie.

Look for skybook's free half points for this, or maybe even just buy down. -4.5 to -4 is HUGE in my book.

[zook]

I said I was going to stick to poker this year, but after the Mansion bet came through I decided to leave a little in my account to play with. Here are my plays for opening weekend:

PHI -4.5 (-110) over HOU (1 unit) - sorry lee
SDG -3 (+105) over OAK (1 unit)

You bet AGAINST MY TEXANS?!?!

That's it! NO SOUP FOR YOU!

lol. Sorry, I'm from Philly, so it's a homer bet for me too

Seriously, though. If you're going to be on Philly, you need to find a place to get -4, and NOT -4.5. When you lay -4.5, you are essentially saying Philly has to beat Houston by a touchdown or you lose. When you lay -4, you are essentialyl saying Philly has to beat Houston by a touchdown, but if Houston gets a field goal when down by a touchdown, you'll only tie.

Look for skybook's free half points for this, or maybe even just buy down. -4.5 to -4 is HUGE in my book.

Good point. I want to do it on Mansion, to give them the business, so I'll have to buy a half-point. Not sure it matters though since the Eagles are going to beat your Texans by two touchdowns!

[elipsesjeff]

Actually, maybe its just me, but I'm not a big fan of any of the games or lines this weekend. Maybe the colts -3 is a good one.

lee, do you do any of the over/unders?

[swiggidy]

holy crap lee you made a lot of picks...

I havn't been paying the attention to football that I should so these are all 1/2 units.

Dolphins over Steelers (0) - doh
Bengals vs Chiefs - Over (46.5)
S.D (-3) over Oakland

I parlayed Seattle over Detroit (-300) with Philly over Texans (-260)

[ensign_lee]

Actually, maybe its just me, but I'm not a big fan of any of the games or lines this weekend. Maybe the colts -3 is a good one.

lee, do you do any of the over/unders?

For the over/unders, I like:

HOU/PHI OVER 37 (-102) @ Pinnacle
CLE/NO UNDER 36 or 35.5 (they're really not that different)

[ensign_lee]

Wow. THe CLE/NO line hit 37, a HUGE key number. I'd hit that again if I hadn't already had a bet on it.

Hey Swiggidy...you bet against my Texans?

BTW: parlaying huge chalk moneylines is a -EV action

[swiggidy]

BTW: parlaying huge chalk moneylines is a -EV action

Is it actually -EV or just less EV than placing the bet another way? Last year I was about 10-3 which doesn't take in to account the times the bet paid over even money (i.e. I made more than 7 units over 14 bets).

[ensign_lee]

Generally, big chalk lines are -EV. This is for the novice bettor.

Now, when you parlay big moneylines, it makes the payout look 'oh so pretty', but doesnt' change the fact that each big chalk line is -EV.

So when you tie two things together that are -EV, then you get a negative EV bet.

[ensign_lee]

I added Buffalo Bills Team Total UNDER 15.5 for the game (-108) @ Pinnacle.

I am also going big on on a 6.5 point two team teaser:
ARI -1
NE -3
for 10 units at -110 (Mansion)

and that'll do it for me.

EDIT: screwed up. It was NE -3, not NE -2.5. Hit the teaser too late.

[ensign_lee]

So, to recap...

Final Card for Sunday:

12:00 (CST) Games:

NE -9.5 vs. BUF (+103) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
BUF Team Total UNDER 15.5 (-108) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
TEN -3 vs. NYJ (+109) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
SEA -3.5 vs. DET (-106) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
NO +3 vs. CLE (-109.2) @ Matchbook for 1 unit
NO/CLE UNDER 36 (-110) @ BetJamaica for 1 unit
HOU +4.5 vs. PHI (-106) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
PHI/HOU Over 37 (-102) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
CIN +3 vs. KC (-120) @ BetCris for 1 unit
Den -3.5 (-110) @ Pinnacle for 2 units

4:00 (CST) Games:
CHI -3.5 (-106) vs. GB @ Pinnacle for 2 units
ARI -4.5 vs. SF - first half (-113) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit
Arizona -7 (-120) @ Skybook for 1 unit

7:00 (CST) Games:
SD -3.5 vs. OAK (+129) @ Pinnacle for 1 unit

Teasers:
ARI -1.5
NE -2.5
HOU OVER 31
3 team 6 point teaser, +180 for 2 units (skybook)

NE -3
ARI -1
2 team 6.5 point teaser, -110 for 10 units (mansion)

[zook]

Added:

IND -3 (+105) vs. NYG @ Mansion for 1 unit

Currently up 1 unit on the day thanks to my man Donovan. See earlier in this thread for an exact margin of win prediction

[elipsesjeff]

Kickin myself for not putting the money on the Bears, but I definately didn't expect that domination over the Packers. I'll definately be taking them next week.

I put some money on the Colts -3 +$102 @ Mansion, that just seems like a no-brainer to me.

[ensign_lee]

Wow. I got freaking owned today.

5-9-1

Down like 15 units. Sheesh.

Y'all might seriously consider simply fading me...Damn...

[ensign_lee]

Well, record update:

YTD: 5-11-1
Units won: -16.51

Sunday's Record:
5-10-1
Units won: -15.4

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 2-0-1
-101 to -110: 3-7
+100 to +110: 0-2
+111 to +125: 0-0
+125 to +185: 0-1
+186 to +300: 0-0
+300 onwards: 0-0

1 unit plays: 4-7-1
2 unit plays: 1-2
3 unit plays: 0-0
10 unit plays: 0-1

~~~
Yuch...

[elipsesjeff]

Yay! colts covered. YOu know, you don't have to bet on EVERY game....

[zook]

Sorry about the rough week lee. You'll get it back. I like your SDG bet tomorrow a lot.

[zook]

Upped my SDG -3 vs. OAK (+105) to 2 units @ Mansion

[elipsesjeff]

I might do this as well

[zook]

Aaron Brooks QB + Art Shell head coach = $$$

[ensign_lee]

Yay! colts covered. YOu know, you don't have to bet on EVERY game....

Yeah, I know.

I'm definitely going to make a MAJOR concerted effort to reign it in this next week.

I let myself get way too loose this last week.

[ensign_lee]

Woot. Finished the week with a win, at least.

YTD: 5-11-1
Units won: -15.22

Sunday's Record:
1-0
Units won: 1.28

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 2-0-1
-101 to -110: 3-7
+100 to +110: 0-2
+111 to +125: 0-0
+125 to +185: 1-1
+186 to +300: 0-0
+300 onwards: 0-0

1 unit plays: 5-7-1
2 unit plays: 1-2
3 unit plays: 0-0
10 unit plays: 0-1