Situation with baby pp's

[Sykedupp]

You're in rebuy madness ($55,000 Grntd $10 R/A on PokerStars), blinds are 2000/4000/100 with approx 140 players left, you're ITM but not "deep" yet.

Your stack is 65000, not average but not push fold, and you are in the bb.

Soupie (aggro very good player loose late in tourneys) is right next to you in the sb with 34000 chips, folded to him and he pushes.

You look at your cards and see 22.

Call or fold? And more importantly, why?

Also, if you choose to fold, where to you draw the line on baby pp's?
33?
44?
55?

Let's get a discussion going.


-Chris

[midas06]

fold, soupies a nit, ask lee for a better table.

[Sykedupp]

Actually, added information, ty for reminding me midas...

At this point in the tournament, you KNOW Soupie (or said aggressive player) is pushing ANY 2 cards... So the real question is this:

When should you begin calling with low pp's against a random hand? Obviously we are (usually) ahead, but its usually a 51/49 and rarely a 70/30 in our favour. This push is for over half of our stack, so do you call? what if its only 1/3rd of your stack? 1/4? 15%? Whats the correct line to be drawn?

I think the situation depends on alot, but we as MTT players might have some very different answers to this question, so lets get them all out, I suspect some will call with 22 and some wont even call with 55 or 66, so lets hear all the reasons why.

-Chris

[midas06]

just tell soupie you'll report him for playing illegally, he'll leave.

[Sprayed]

Against a random hand:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.3340 % 49.39% 00.95% { 22 }
Hand 2: 49.6660 % 48.72% 00.95% { random

Against 50%
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 47.2589 % 46.67% 00.59% { 22 }
Hand 2: 52.7411 % 52.15% 00.59% { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o }

You're a flip at best here. If you had somewhat of a bigger stack I would say call. I would fold and look for a better spot.

[chardrian]

I am just looking at stack sizes on this one.

You are about as close to push/fold as you are going to get. I really want those chips added to my stack. I call.

I take the flip in an effort to get up to 100k and maintain what at this point is my biggest weapon - folding equity. If I lose, I can still use some shortstack ninja moves.

[DaNutsInYoEye]

Why would you even consider this? The only hand you're going to be ahead of is a hand with a deuce in it. I think you can pretty confidently take all hands containing a 2 out of his range. I seriously doubt soupie is going to be pushing a hand like A2 because he knows likely hands that call him are Ax and would have him dominated. Yes, his range is very wide, but I don't think it's quite "any two." -EV.

[chardrian]

Why would you even consider this? The only hand you're going to be ahead of is a hand with a deuce in it. I think you can pretty confidently take all hands containing a 2 out of his range. I seriously doubt soupie is going to be pushing a hand like A2 because he knows likely hands that call him are Ax and would have him dominated. Yes, his range is very wide, but I don't think it's quite "any two." -EV.

Wow - that's just wrong.

Soupie has 34k - an M of just over 4. If it is folded to him in the SB, he is absolutely, positively pushing with ANY TWO.

You can argue that you shouldn't be calling all-ins with 55- because you are calling for a flip, you can argue that you should be the first one in the pot with those types of hands, but there is no way you can argue that soupie's range is tighter than any two here.

Anyhoo - I can see why people would fold the flip here and wait for a better spot where they are the one applying the pressure. I just take my opportunities when they come to me.

[drmcboy]

I fold 44. 55-77 I think and probably call. 88+ I call for sure.
I would lean to folding the 55, 66 if we did not close the action.

The tighter the table is playing, the less I'll call. If most raises are being called, I will be more likely to gamble.

I LOL'd at the idea soupie folds A2 here.

[johnny_fish]

I agree, Soupie's range is any 2 here. I'd call. Very cEV, can't imagine it's -$EV.

[bode]

i fold this. "any 2" that doesnt have a 2 in it you are a flip against. i think you can find a better spot.

[zenbitz]

EV = +3450 (blinds+antes/2) almost exactly here.

I don't think you can throw away any +EV situtation when you cannot get knocked out here. Also, it's kinda "crazy" to call with 22, so that might cut down on steal attempts vs. you blind.

I think I take the gamble. PLUS soupie is likely to be the best player at this table, so knocking him out is g00t for you.

Only reason to fold is if you feel that the rest of the table is soft.

[johnny_fish]

Call 3K to win 6.9K on a coinflip is too much cEV to give up..

[JeffreyGB]

I fold 44. 55-77 I think and probably call. 88+ I call for sure.
I would lean to folding the 55, 66 if we did not close the action.

The tighter the table is playing, the less I'll call. If most raises are being called, I will be more likely to gamble.

I LOL'd at the idea soupie folds A2 here.

I pretty much agree with this 100%. I'm not scared of having to play push/fold at this point, and I think the added FE of finding spots where you're first in is worth more than the EV you have calling here. If the table is playing back at raises most of the time, then my FE for later spots is less, in which case giving up the small EV here isn't a profitable move any more.

[digitaldoc]

As with any poker hand, the answer is "depends".

I really like to pick out two or three people I want to get my chips from at the table. I make my selections taking into consideration, my position verses them, stack sizes and their degree of apparent poker expertise. My honest guess, not knowing the other players at the table, soupie is not going to be the one I want to get chips from.

Here's why I fold this hand.
1.) I can easily steal a big blind back from one of my targets.
2.) I am not willing to swap chip stacks with a known very aggressive late stage player. He is far more dangerous with a bigger stack. If he survives the hand, he'll keep putting massive pressure on you till one of you is out or you move tables.
3.) You only have one way to win this hand, and that is showing down the best hand which is a pure coin flip against any two.
4.) I'm looking to make a call with a hand that I think is still a dominating hand or at least a 60/40 against a smaller stack. That I'm calling with pocket 5's and up.

[chardrian]

As with any poker hand, the answer is "depends".

I really like to pick out two or three people I want to get my chips from at the table. I make my selections taking into consideration, my position verses them, stack sizes and their degree of apparent poker expertise. My honest guess, not knowing the other players at the table, soupie is not going to be the one I want to get chips from.

Here's why I fold this hand.
1.) I can easily steal a big blind back from one of my targets.
2.) I am not willing to swap chip stacks with a known very aggressive late stage player. He is far more dangerous with a bigger stack. If he survives the hand, he'll keep putting massive pressure on you till one of you is out or you move tables.
3.) You only have one way to win this hand, and that is showing down the best hand which is a pure coin flip against any two.
4.) I'm looking to make a call with a hand that I think is still a dominating hand or at least a 60/40 against a smaller stack. That I'm calling with pocket 5's and up.

I don't necessarily disagree with any of this. I honestly think that you can't really screw up too bad here - the edge in folding or calling is so small that it is insignificant in the long run. But just for kicks I'm going to provide a counterargument:

1) Actually, I can't steal that easily anymore. I have an M somewhere below 10, as do the majority of the players remaining. So we are now at the stage of a tourney where people just pick a hand and go with it. Yes, I still have fold equity, but the chances that I will now get called on one of my pushes is much higher now.

2) Although soupie is going to be a major problem with even more chips, I would much rather have him out than have him remain and constantly applying pressure in situations where I was hoping to do so but now can't since he steals my first in opportunities. The reward of taking his chips and increasing my stack outweighs the risk in letting him stay and letting him steal even more of my opportunities.

3) I might only have one way to win this hand, but my odds to do so are 50/50 and I am getting pot odds to do so. It's almost never a bad thing to make an even super small +EV move against the best players at the table (since you are rarely going to be able to make a huge +EV call against them).

4) Again agaisnt a dominant player, making a 51/49 play is not such a bad thing. If you win, you are now the dominant player at the table. If you lose, you just go into ABC shortstack playing.