A high vs a big river raise.... smells like a bluff???

[Phantaroth]

6+1 Level 2: 15/30

Stage #503773324 Tourney ID 60692 Holdem Single Tournament No Limit $30 - 2006-09-22 08:33:44 (ET)
Table: 9204662 (Real Money) Seat #8 is the dealer
Seat 1 - GREENCHIP76 ($1000 in chips)
Seat 2 - WOODINRI ($2680 in chips)
Seat 4 - RIGWATCH ($1590 in chips)
Seat 5 - LNT ($1370 in chips)
Seat 6 - AUSTINBLUFFS ($1210 in chips)
Seat 8 - SUPER_MONKEY ($2065 in chips)
Seat 9 - KILIKIAN2 ($3585 in chips)
KILIKIAN2 - Posts small blind $15
GREENCHIP76 - Posts big blind $30
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to SUPER_MONKEY [Qc Ad]
WOODINRI - Folds
RIGWATCH - Folds
LNT - Folds
AUSTINBLUFFS - Folds
SUPER_MONKEY - Raises $90 to $90
KILIKIAN2 - Calls $75
GREENCHIP76 - Folds
*** FLOP *** [3d 3h 7d]
KILIKIAN2 - Checks
SUPER_MONKEY - Bets $120
KILIKIAN2 - Calls $120
*** TURN *** [3d 3h 7d] [9d]
KILIKIAN2 - Checks
SUPER_MONKEY - Checks
*** RIVER *** [3d 3h 7d 9d] [Jc]
KILIKIAN2 - Bets $480
SUPER_MONKEY - ???


I don't have a read on this guy.
He just called me pre flop. This most the time is like Kx Ax or a low PP. He doesn't re-raise the flop, so I don't think it is K7 A7 or any pocket pair. J comes and I think if this guy has AJ he is raising before now. KJ is possible but I'd expect something a bit more conservative.

I'm putting this guy on A4-A6, K4-KQ...

Push, call, fold?

[ripjohngotti]

You have Ace high, Fold.

[gingerwizard]

id fold this chief. Nearly everytime i would call this in the lower limit tournys result was guy had KJ QJ or J10 and hit J on the river.

There'll be better opportunities to get the guy

[taipan168]

I'd fold this too. You may be folding the best hand but it's not worth spending the chips to find out IMO. Think of it this way, there's 930 in the pot and you need to call 480, basically, if you're wrong about him bluffing more than ~50% of the time this isn't worth it (and that's not even taking ICM into account).

With the 3 diamonds out there, could he not have hit the flush on the turn and slowplayed?

[Fortune 500]

The percentage of time you're ahead here is so small, you can fold it and not lose much.

Frankly, you're as likely up against trips or a flush as often as you are against nothing. This guy was in the BB against a button raise. His range is SO wide here, it's impossible to put him on much without a read.

[Phantaroth]

Okay thanks guys.

I just had a realllyyyy strong feeling A high was good here... and I called and he showed 6 high...

The reason I posted this was because I realize that just because i used jedi powers to win this hand, im probley losing it most the time and wanted to see if anyone else would make a call here in this type of spot.

Thanks for the comments

[TLR]

Okay thanks guys.

I just had a realllyyyy strong feeling A high was good here... and I called and he showed 6 high...

The reason I posted this was because I realize that just because i used jedi powers to win this hand, im probley losing it most the time and wanted to see if anyone else would make a call here in this type of spot.

Thanks for the comments

The only way to call this kind of bet is based on some read on the guy, since from his betting pattern you cant discern if this is a bluff or a real hand