22 and out.

[gingerwizard]

Should i have played this differently? Not posting this as a bad beat. if it is then ok, but i want advice on my post flop play, especially the check raise

***** Hand History for Game 5224140350 *****

NL Texas Hold'em $6 Buy-in Trny:29064569 Level:2 Blinds(30/60) - Monday, November 20, 10:53:39 ET 2006
Table Table 111805 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 1: O9Hits ( $1660 )
Seat 3: willg2006 ( $4140 )
Seat 5: kunie43 ( $1400 )
Seat 8: rockyjr23 ( $2460 )
Seat 10: Sailin_On ( $2840 )
Seat 7: Sooted93 ( $6040 )
Seat 9: Hero ( $1460 )
Blinds(30/60)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 2s 2d ]
Hero calls [60].
Sailin_On calls [60].
O9Hits folds.
willg2006 calls [60].
kunie43 folds.
Sooted93 folds.
rockyjr23 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jc, 3d, 2h ]
rockyjr23 checks.
Hero bets [270].
Sailin_On folds.
willg2006 calls [270].
rockyjr23 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5h ]
Hero checks.
willg2006 bets [300].
Hero is all-In [1130]
willg2006 calls [830].
** Dealing River ** [ 5d ]
willg2006 shows [ 3c, 3s ] a full house, Threes full of fives.
Hero shows [ 2s, 2d ] a full house, Twos full of fives.
willg2006 wins 3070 chips from the main pot with a full house, Threes full of fives.
Hero finished in seventh place.

[taipan168]

Preflop: There is an argument for folding the smallest pocket pairs UTG but to me this depends on how aggressive the table is. If it is passive table where people will just limp in behind you and you get to see a cheap flop (typical for low buyins) I would limp. If it is an aggressive table I would probably fold. That said, I read in Lee Jones' book that you can call a raise of up to 7% of the chips you can win (the shorter of your stack or your opp's) with a PP and still have correct implied odds to hit a set.

Flop: Betting out is good but you can bet a little less to try to encourage the action. You have a great hand, you can afford a call here. There is 270 in the pot, I make it 150 or so to go and hope somebody raises so I can push over.

Turn: As played I would lead again on the turn, possibly push since there is 810 in the pot and you have 1100 behind. Alternatively I would bet 400 on the turn and get the rest in on the river.

In short, there's no way I'm laying down a set here, I go broke with this every time.

[Fortune 500]

I don't think you can get away any where but preflop. Taipan is right... you can make an argument for folding deuces here, but I probably attempt to limp to set here too. I don't think there's a lot you can do.

Set over set happens so rarely, and it's nearly impossible to detect and get away from. Once you fill up, it's over.

[Erudito]

Well, it is a case of bad luck. Even if you didn't check raise on the turn. You would have made an all-in on the river when the board paired. Therefore, the result would have been the same. You would have lost it all. This is a very tough situation to be in. You flopped a set and the turn card gives a possible straight for villain. Villain called on the flop a bet of 270 on a pot of 240. I would have put Villain on a straight draw on the flop. Here I would look at the pot odds before deciding my next move. The pot on the turn is 780. Villain made a bet of 300, which gives you a pot odds of 3.6. This is very it becomes tricky. What could Villain possibly have? If Villain has a straight, you are 2 to 1 odds to make a full house on the river. But if Villain started with 2 pairs on the flop, you are in trouble. Looking at the flop, and the action taken on the flop, it is very unlikely that villain started with J3, J2 or 32. It is quite possible that villain started with KJ, QJ, JT, J9, J8. From this you can rule out two pairs for Villain. So the only next possible holding is Villain having flopped a set. Which one? Well, you can eliminate JJ because he would have raised pre-flop. Therefore, the only possible holding are 33 or 55. That is, either Villain flopped a set of 33 on the flop or he made a set on the turn with 55. Would Villain call such a huge bet on the flop with 55? Yes, absolutely. From this, you can conclude only 2 possible hands for Villain, a set of 3 or 5 and a possible straight with A4 or 64.
So what does all this mean?
Against a set of 3 or 5 you are drawing dead. Against a straight you are only a 2 to 1 underdog. Therefore, you can draw out on Villain. Which holding do you think that Villain has? This is a very tough position to be in. Moral of this analysis. Fold 22 UTG. This way you avoid getting into trouble and having to make such difficult analysis which lead to how what do you think Villain has? And you can only answer the latter question correctly if you have a read on your opponent. That is, you know how he thinks. Otherwise, you are in the dark and this a very difficult situation to be in.

[FlyingSaucy]

I don't think this is such a hard hand to fold preflop. You're utg, at any normal table you'll be facing a raise from one of the 6 remaining players to act, which means you're likely either throwing away your 60 outright, or going into a flop looking for a set without proper odds. Your M is 16.2, midrange, not worth getting into battles out of position when you are looking for a particular flop that will only hit 12% of the time.

The only way I do not fold this hand preflop is if the table has been ridiculously tight when it comes to how they react to EP limpers or EP raisers.

[gingerwizard]

erudito. I am a beginner so i don't understand what you mean by pot odds. I am a professional mathematician so please don't hold back on the technicalities if you explain it.

Since i am asking about pot odds it seems reasonale to enquire about EV as well. Is EV simply expected value? Based on probability of winning pot given opp has one of a specified range of hands and the amount to call. E.g. +ve EV occurs when having placed villain on a certain range of hands and noted that expected return of the pot is 150 and it is less than 150 to call. Or is it something more involved taking into account hero and villains risk attitudes?

[givememyleg]

I find this to be incredibly standard.

edit - Well the getting allin part, I probably lead turn again rather than c/r.

[Erudito]

Is EV simply expected value? Based on probability of winning pot given opp has one of a specified range of hands and the amount to call. E.g. +ve EV occurs when having placed villain on a certain range of hands and noted that expected return of the pot is 150 and it is less than 150 to call.

Correct.
EV is based on the probability that your opponent is holding a particular hand. In this case the EV is negative because you have no outs. How do you know that you are drawing dead? Well, there is no easy answer, this is based a lot on your reads on your opponent.
You flopped a set and missed the full house on the turn. The turn card gives a possible straight for you opponent. Therefore you have a total of 10 outs, this is assuming that your outs are live. The odds of making your hand to a full house on the river with 1 come to come is 3.6 to 1. This assumes that your full house is good enough to win the pot. Therefore, you have a break even situation. Your opponent is offering you a break even proposition. The question comes, should you take it? This would be level 1 thinking. EV would be Zero because you are at a break even situation, your odds of making your full house is 3.6 to 1 and the pot odds offered is 3.6 to 1. This assumes that making your full house is enough to win the pot.
Most players would call at this point without much thinking.
Level 2 thinking would be asking what does my opponent have? What range of hands is my opponent holding? This is where you have to give probabilities of certain holdings based on the betting patterns of your opponent. In my previous answer, I gave a range of hands which Villain could possibly hold, and looking at the action till the turn, you should be able to eliminate some hands from your opponent holding.
Here's a summary table of Pot Equity using Poker Stove:

Villain Hands                               22 Equity
TT+                                                             83.08%
AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, J9, J8                           97.00 %
A4 or 64                                                    22.58%
33 or 55                                                     2.27%

As you can see from the above table, your set of 22 is undergo against A4, 64, 33, 55.
You made a large bet on the flop and villain called. Therefore, based on this information you can eliminate TT+ and AJ, KJ, QK, JT, J9, J8 from his range of hands.
This leaves you with A4, 64, 33, 55. Running this range in PokerStove you get a Pot Equity of 19.38%. Which translates to 4.16 to 1 pot odds. The pot must be offering 4.61 to 1 odds for you to break even. Anything higher than 4.61 to 1 is positive EV.
Therefore, calling the turn bet or moving all-in is a negative EV based on your reading on your opponent. The correct move is to let go of 22 when you opponent bet on the turn. But! Yes, I can hear a huge BUT!
But Villain can be bluffing! True, once again, to determine whether Villain is bluffing in this situation is once again based on reads, not mathematics.
If you approach this from Level 1 thinking, it is correct to call because EV is break even. So you stand a great chance to double up if you are correct. And in tournament, often it is worth to take a coin flip to double up.
However, if you approach this hand from Level 2 thinking, that is, you make your decisions based on reads and apply mathematics with it, then you can clearly see that it is a negative EV.
This is what separates the great players from the amateurs. Professional players think in levels 1 and 2. The greatest and strongest pro think in levels 1, 2 and 3.

[taipan168]

Great analysis Erudito. Since you player higher buyins, I think there is one critical factor that you're missing. Most $6 players are terrible.

You made a large bet on the flop and villain called. Therefore, based on this information you can eliminate TT+ and AJ, KJ, QK, JT, J9, J8 from his range of hands.

At a $6 tourney, many opps will call a flop pot sized bet with all of the above as well as 44-99 and maybe even missed overcards. They would definitely call with AJ, KJ and maybe JT and J9 all of which you crush. Depending on how loose they have been playing preflop, the two pair hands J3, J2 and 32 are also possibilities.

This leaves you with A4, 64, 33, 55.

This range is way too tight IMO. Agree that Hero has 10 outs if opp made the straight on the turn and only one out against JJ, 33 and 55 though.

If you approach this from Level 1 thinking, it is correct to call because EV is break even. So you stand a great chance to double up if you are correct. And in tournament, often it is worth to take a coin flip to double up. However, if you approach this hand from Level 2 thinking, that is, you make your decisions based on reads and apply mathematics with it, then you can clearly see that it is a negative EV.

This is where I think knowledge of the play at the buyin level is critical. At a $6 buyin you will be ahead much more often than behind by pushing all-in on the turn. I have seen $6 Villains call all-in with all sorts of rubbish hands in this spot - a missed AK, A3, A2, even two completely random unpaired cards with no draw compared to the times they have 4x or an overset. Plus, Hero has some fold equity by pushing over.

I agree that at higher buyins this is much less likely to happen but IMO folding a set even on that board would be -EV in the long run at lower buyins.

[taipan168]

erudito. I am a beginner so i don't understand what you mean by pot odds. I am a professional mathematician so please don't hold back on the technicalities if you explain it.

Since i am asking about pot odds it seems reasonale to enquire about EV as well. Is EV simply expected value? Based on probability of winning pot given opp has one of a specified range of hands and the amount to call. E.g. +ve EV occurs when having placed villain on a certain range of hands and noted that expected return of the pot is 150 and it is less than 150 to call. Or is it something more involved taking into account hero and villains risk attitudes?

If you enjoy mathematics, take a look at ICM and the calculations and assumptions behind it (I only did idiot maths at high school and I sort of get it) - link here. IMO ICM is one of the most important concepts in tournaments and particularly one-table SNGs.

Also take a look at Scuba Chuck's great post on Expected Value - it's in the SNG Tactics sticky.

[Dice Man]

I am a professional mathematician

I already hate you for being for being one.

If i had a better grasp of math, i could get my head around Nash Equilibrium, as described in the HU tutorial in SNG Power Tools.

I recommend you buy it, i've learned a lot in the 3 days i've had it.

[TLR]

I tend to fold UTG.

I am tempted to check the flop and get someone to put some money in and then call or raise based on action, but betting out is fine also, although I would bet a bit less, probably 150-180.
The turn is not a bad card for you, the only hands it help is 55 and A4, both are possible but not probable, I think you played it fine.

[gingerwizard]

If i had a better grasp of math, i could get my head around Nash Equilibrium, as described in the HU tutorial in SNG Power Tools.

Nash Equilibrium? Is that the Nash Bargaining Theorem? ie there is a unique solution to a bargaining problem (which i guess HU is) satisfying Nash's 6 axioms which is given by the Nash Point?

If so how is it applied to HU?