Near Bubble: BB call or fold?

[Erudito]

Another interesting hand. This is a mock hand. It is not based on an actual SnGo tourney.

PokerStars: Blinds: 200/400 Ante: 25
UTG (t5788)
CO (t4648)
BTN (t424)
SB (t1137)
BB (t1503)

BB has
Notes:
Button Push Range: 85% {22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T2+,92+,84o+,82s+,75o+,73s+,6 5o,63s+,53s+}
SB Push Range: 80% {22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T2+,94o+,92s+,85o+,83s+,75o+, 74s+,64s+,54s}

***Action***
2 folds, BTN calls (t424), SB raises all-in (t1137), BB ????

What would you do as Big Blind?

[natdang]

Drop it like it's hot, your relative stack size isn't that bad, and there is still a player behind. Button probably cold-calls for a reason... it's an odd move at this stage in the sng. Therefore, if you go in, he's probably in there too... and there NO way in hell 83o will win 3-handed.

[taipan168]

This is an interesting situation. According to SNGPT, if Button folds and SB is shoving 80% (he actually should be shoving 100% in this situation) then calling with 83o is -0.1% EV. I'm not sure what having Button AI and SB shoving does to our $ EV. Although I don't necessarily like how 83o fares against both Button and SB, we only need to win the side pot against SB and we've gained chips (we'll have 1842 chips) and knocked SB out with Button still desperately short. Plus we are likely to have two live cards against Button and SB and even if we lose we are not out.

Intuitively I would tend to fold this and hope that SB takes out Button, but I would be very interested to see the solution to this.

[natdang]

Sorry, didn't realize BTN was already AI... but him being in almost certainly makes calling more -EV. Given that the $1260 Main pot is unlikely yours in a 3-way pot, the best you can hope for is the side pot, also unlikely.

[Erudito]

taipan168 wrote:

we only need to win the side pot against SB and we've gained chips (we'll have 1842 chips) and knocked SB out with Button still desperately short. Plus we are likely to have two live cards against Button and SB and even if we lose we are not out.

I think this is a good illustration of a counter-intuitive hand. Many players would drop this hand like a hot potato. But, if one studies this closely, there are 3 stacks which are short and the blinds are very high with ante. Therefore, the 3 short stacks are in huge trouble.
Taipan168, you got the correct idea. The only way any of the short stacks to survive this is to gamble. According to SitNGo Wizard, this is a crying call, the EV is +.071. Believe it or not.

[natdang]

Well, it really depends on range, but if villain is at 80% against us as taipan's simulation says, and that is already -EV, then having BTN AI must push it further -EV.

[ripjohngotti]

This is an interesting situation. According to SNGPT, if Button folds and SB is shoving 80% (he actually should be shoving 100% in this situation) then calling with 83o is -0.1% EV. I'm not sure what having Button AI and SB shoving does to our $ EV. Although I don't necessarily like how 83o fares against both Button and SB, we only need to win the side pot against SB and we've gained chips (we'll have 1842 chips) and knocked SB out with Button still desperately short. Plus we are likely to have two live cards against Button and SB and even if we lose we are not out.

Intuitively I would tend to fold this and hope that SB takes out Button, but I would be very interested to see the solution to this.