Awkward, bottom two

[drmcboy]

Getting Hand History Information...
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Hand #35405116-67 at Sun5pm200-024 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
Started at 24/Sep/06 17:59:07

Moraine is at seat 0 with 4890.
Daniel Komen is at seat 1 with 2040.
NotoriousBIL is at seat 2 with 4525.
FlipMaker is at seat 3 with 2785.
StillTippin is at seat 4 with 2015.
Rossicity is at seat 5 with 2705.
Wyndo is at seat 6 with 3215.
browerkid is at seat 7 with 4715.
geoff1299 is at seat 8 with 8815.
WILBIL is at seat 9 with 2310.
The button is at seat 8.

WILBIL posts the small blind of 20.
Moraine posts the big blind of 40.

Moraine: 9s Jh
Daniel Komen: -- --
NotoriousBIL: -- --
FlipMaker: -- --
StillTippin: -- --
Rossicity: -- --
Wyndo: -- --
browerkid: -- --
geoff1299: -- --
WILBIL: -- --

Pre-flop:

Daniel Komen folds. NotoriousBIL folds. FlipMaker
calls. StillTippin calls. Rossicity folds. Wyndo
folds. browerkid folds. geoff1299 folds. WILBIL
calls. Moraine checks.

Flop (board: As Qd 9c):

WILBIL checks. Moraine checks. FlipMaker checks.
StillTippin checks.

Turn (board: As Qd 9c Jc):

WILBIL checks. Moraine bets 100. FlipMaker raises
to 460.

no reads, table playing typically tight for UB. This is the Sun 200.

[thenonsequitur]

Tough, ugly spot. That's a pretty big raise by villian too; that says something.

He checked the flop in second-to-last position, so I find it unlikely he has much of a hand on the flop. Also there's not many ways he could have flopped a big hand on this flop with open-limped hole cards.

Then his raise on the turn says to me he either has 1) a made straight with KTs; 2) two pair with QJ or a set with 99; or 3) a split pair and a straight draw: QTs, JTs, T9s. (Since villian is tight and open-limped, I'm discounting possibilities in these categories that I think are less likely).

It's a tough decision, but his large raise really says semibluff (#3) to me.

I'm really tempted to call, then if the river doesn't complete a possible straight, put in a small (but not too weak) open-bet, which you can safely fold to a big raise. I think a busted straight draw+pair is a lot more likely to fold or call a small bet than to raise it up. But if you just check a busted straight might bluff it strong with a large open-bet which might be hard to call.

While the above is my analysis, at the table I'd probably just wuss out and fold.