Near Bubble: Interesting Hand

[Erudito]

Here's a mock hand. It is not based on an actual SitNGo tourney.

PokerStars: Blinds: 200/400 with Ante: 25

UTG (t6259)
CO (t1224)
BTN (t1576)
SB (t1877)
BB (t2664)

SB has
Notes:
UTG Push Range: 70 % {22+,J2+,T5+,T2s+,96+,87+,85s+,75s+}
CO Call Range: 20 % {33+, A4+, A2s+,KQ+,KTs+}
***Action***
UTG pushes (t6259), CO calls (t1224), BTN folds, SB ????

What would you do as SB? Call or Fold.

[ripjohngotti]

This is even worse then my Aj hand.

[Isop]

Personally, I fold this hand. KQ isn't strong enough 3 ways to play for all my chips.

I'd far rather be pushing this than calling with it, especially given short stack's range. It's likely some of my outs are taken by the short stack, if not the big stack. I'd wait until I can push pretty much anything else, and perhaps the short stack will be knocked out this hand, making my range to push even more loose.

Isop

[swiggidy]

Easy fold

This is even worse then my Aj hand.

Oooh snap, +1 ...

I think that brings you up to -999

[TLR]

KQ is too easily dominated 3 way

[taipan168]

I call in this situation assuming the reads as to pushing ranges are 100% correct.

I analysed a 70% pushing range by UTG against KQo in the SB and it is +1.0%. Separately, I analysed a 20% pushing range by CO against KQo in the SB and it is +0.5%. Unless I am mistaken, I can't imagine that if UTG pushes and CO calls that a call the SB with KQo in this situation would become -EV because of the combination of the push and the call.

I guess the issue is in this situation is how can we ever have an accurate enough read that UTG is pushing 70% of hands? This is a very wide range (22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T5o+,T2s+,96o+,94s+,87o,85s+, 75s+) and although it is correct for UTG to be pushing a wide range here, in order for this call to be +EV we need to be convinced that UTG is pushing at least 49%. In a game, intuitively I would tend to fold this on the basis that I would doubt that UTG would be pushing as wide as 22+,A2+,K2+,Q5o+,Q2s+,J8o+,J7s+,T9o,T8s+,98s (49%) unless I had a very solid read.

[Erudito]

Well thought answer, Taipan. This hand was to illustrate the importance of putting your opponents in a range of hands. Yes, 70% is very wide. But it illustrates a point here. This was an exercise to see if players were pay attention to the ranges I posted in the hand. In practical play, to put an opponent with such wide range is rare. But it does not mean it cannot happen. If you run this hand in SnGPT it is a positive EV.

[MuddyWicket]

Given that there are two people considerably more desperate than yourself is it better to wait a couple of hands and hopefully pick off a better ev move?

Or is it better poker to try to triple up and make a better stab at first place?

I am struggling with the concept of EV and the idea of accepting every +EV opportunity at the possible expense of better EV opportunities.

I voted fold but missed how high the blinds were but I dont really like calling allin with KQ - it has to improve imo.

[swiggidy]

I am struggling with the concept of EV and the idea of accepting every +EV opportunity at the possible expense of better EV opportunities.

I voted fold but missed how high the blinds were but I dont really like calling allin with KQ - it has to improve imo.

The point of eV is what is the long term effect, winning or loosing. If I told you that I was going all-in and I either had AA, JT, or 27. You would call with KQ because you are ahead of my range, i.e. you are behind AA, but ahead of JT and 27.

You are basically right. Calling 2 all-ins with KQ is generally not a good idea. This is a theoretical example where both players are extremely loose, so it becomes a good call. In practice, especially at lower limits, this will almost never come up.