good/bad/awful/awful sexy?

[drmcboy]

PS 10 RB, ave stack around 40k.

dark1013 has been tight, but can make a play, he raised with 55 on a QJQ board, checked it down from there. My guess was he had 99 or maybe 77, he didn't seem the type to smooth call with an AX hand... but maybe he was spooked by the UTG raise. I am sure if he has AX, it's AT or AJ, he never calls pre flop with A8 and wouldn't call turn with AQ/AK.

My image... not sure. About 50 hands ago I called a push with TP and drew out on an over pair (opp had been active). Since then I have played pretty standard, won maybe three pots, showed down a set on a three flush board that I played pretty slow and a couple other wins pre flop.

What can he call with here? Only AT plus?

PokerStars Game #6398663748: Tournament #31934692, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (800/1600) - 2006/09/24 - 01:25:09 (ET)
Table '31934692 82' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: gogilmore (46636 in chips)
Seat 2: bgwolts (89128 in chips)
Seat 3: craig1723 (61123 in chips)
Seat 4: dark1013 (48356 in chips)
Seat 5: iguadala (68699 in chips)
Seat 6: digitaldoc2 (23791 in chips)
Seat 7: yvon2222 (71427 in chips)
Seat 8: cuthbertt (53855 in chips)
Seat 9: dshoman (51232 in chips)
gogilmore: posts the ante 75
bgwolts: posts the ante 75
craig1723: posts the ante 75
dark1013: posts the ante 75
iguadala: posts the ante 75
digitaldoc2: posts the ante 75
yvon2222: posts the ante 75
cuthbertt: posts the ante 75
dshoman: posts the ante 75
dshoman: posts small blind 800
gogilmore: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to cuthbertt [5s 6d]
bgwolts: raises 1600 to 3200
craig1723: folds
dark1013: calls 3200
iguadala: folds
digitaldoc2: folds
yvon2222: folds
cuthbertt: calls 3200
dshoman: folds
gogilmore: folds
*** FLOP *** [Th 8c 8s]
bgwolts: checks
dark1013: checks
cuthbertt: checks
*** TURN *** [Th 8c 8s] [Js]
bgwolts: checks
dark1013: checks
cuthbertt: bets 5275
bgwolts: folds
dark1013: calls 5275
*** RIVER *** [Th 8c 8s Js] [Ad]
dark1013: checks
cuthbertt: bets 15775

[chardrian]

he can call with any pair, AT, A9, AJ. Your bet on the turn is either a bluff or a made hand. Same thing on the river.

[drmcboy]

if he calls with any pair,you're saying it is bad?

[chardrian]

No. I am saying that sometimes we can make plays that should work most of the time. But when they don't, it doesn't necessarily mean that anyone played the hand badly.

You asked "what can he call with" and then asked whether he can call with less than AT+. I think he can call with any pair there.

Was his call dangerous? Sure - you cold easily have a str8, trips, a higher 2 pair, etc. But your bet also screams missed draws/bluff - "Check the flop, no one bets the turn, I have position so let's take a stab on the turn. I get called, but no real sign of strength so let's take another stab at the river since that is the only way I'm going to win this hand."

[scarface737]

he can easily call with any pair if he is able to put u on a missed flush draw river bet.

[drmcboy]

I don't follow. What hand do you think he has? If he can call with any pair, it seems to me it's a terrible play. He has to have a pair. the only unpaired hand he could maybe have on the river is K9, and I'm 100% sure he didn't have K9. But you say this works 'most' of the time, which I assume you mean > 50 %, which would make it a great play. Are you putting him on K9 more than 50% of the time?

[chardrian]

Ok - I guess I am not following either.

So here's my analysis:

1) You should fold preflop. The only thing you have going for you is position. Against a minraise UTG froma guy who has u covered and a smooth call from EP with a guy who has basically the same stack as you - 56os = trash. There are just way too many hands 55+ that have you dominated to continue here.

2) If you are going to play 56 because of position - you need to bet that flop.

3) I don't mind you betting that turn, because there are now both str8 and flush draws out there. But it also puts you in a quandary when you get a call - does your opp have those draws or does he have a hand and think that you are chasing?

4) I again don't mind the river bet - you are saying I have a hand. And you having a hand makes sense. You could have been slowplaying an 8. Had 79 or TJ, or chasing an A hi flush and caught the river, etc. But... you also easily could have nuttin here. The checked flop, bet turn and then bet river again is a standard bluff line - especially considering that you left yourself with about 30k. You seem to think he can only call with AT or AJ here. I disagree. AQ is a double gutshot with 2 overs on the turn - I think many call with AQ there. AK is a gutshot with two overs, and again I think many can't lay down AK. So he could very easily have A9-AK. You also seem to think that he can't call with 77 or 99 here. Again I disagree - I think he can call with those hands and worse (e.g. 66 and 55). To do so he needs to put you on a bluff - but I do think that is possible here.

[drmcboy]

I played pre flop because of the stack sizes, the deeper the better when you're playing 56.

I think we're not connecting because my read on opp elminates most of the hands you think he can hold.