Implied odds plus intangibles. Call all-in?

[Woody]

This was a pivotal hand from my SnG last night. Looking back, not sure I played it right.

Pre-flop raise gets a couple callers. I missed pairing on the flop, but turn gives me a nut flush draw.
Odds Calc: 9 outs to a flush. I'm a little worried about the straight, but I thought an A or J might do the job too, giving me 15 outs total.
All told, 18% to 30% chance of making hand on river make the all-in call on the flop pretty marginal.

How much stock do you put on moving from small stack to chip lead? Risks need to be taken at some point, is this the time to do it?


Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button (t1830.00)
Hero (t1255.00)
BB (t3590.00)
UTG (t1690.00)
MP (t1635.00)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, A. Hero posts a blind of t30.
2 folds, Button calls t60, Hero (poster) raises to t160, BB calls t100, Button calls t100.

Flop: (t480) T, 9, 7 (3 players)
Hero bets t60, BB raises to t180, Button calls t180, Hero calls t120.

Turn: (t1020) 6 (3 players)

Woodpecker99: Check
BM1999 : Bet (550)
RoutedOut: Raise (1,490)
Woodpecker99: ???

[hachkc]

PF - raise bigger or limp. To early too push here with AJo and M > 10.
Flop - Why bet 60 into a pot of 480? That's just begging for a reraise which you got unless you are holding a strong hand which you are not. Check/fold to any action or push at that point, push to the reraise maybe but its a somewhat scary board.
Turn - Fold. I'm guessing there is a made flush or at worst a made str8 out there already so you have maybe 9 outs but maybe only 7. You are rather short stacked at this point so flip a coin to decide between push or fold.

[drmcboy]

pre flop 4x at least, especially since you are OOP.

flop, I might hope for a free card, one of them has to like that flop, but if you're betting it must be 3/4 PS or more.

If you made a real bet on the flop and got called I would have pushed the turn. here either play is probably OK. If you think you can steal a lot with your new small stack I might give up, but mostly with this price I would gamble.

Also, is the BB 30 or 60, it looks like 30 but button 'calls' 60.

[Woody]

BB is 60.

More food for thought. Moving to the hypothetical: Let's say I have marginal odds for this turn call. If I win, I have a stack that I think will almost certainly allow me to get in the money, and probably deep in the money (for an SNG) with 1st or 2nd. This was my thinking when I considered the bet.


It is a bit like the thread I just found over here:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-43498.htm

except:
My M is higher and I'm not as desperate
the payout in an SnG isn't as steep as a MTT.

[Sprayed]

On the flop, the pot is 420 and you bet 60, hmmm. Aggressive folks will raise you here regardless of what they have. Just looks weak. However, there are three people in the pot with ya, so I would think that someone has a hand or a good one to draw too on that board. Since I'm oop I would probably check on this flop and not lead out with a C-bet.

[hachkc]

BB is 60.
More food for thought. Moving to the hypothetical: Let's say I have marginal odds for this turn call. If I win, I have a stack that I think will almost certainly allow me to get in the money, and probably deep in the money (for an SNG) with 1st or 2nd. This was my thinking when I considered the bet.

A couple of thoughts:

1. If you think you can outplay the other players, you still have some stack to work with so a fold is ok; a fold on the flop would have been better though.

2. Getting lucky here means a better chance at the money while folding here means you are even more short stacked now. Gamble, if you get lucky you have a better chance at the money. If not, you buyin to another SNG. Basically, you are looking to cut your losses at this table and move to the next one. Don't really have any advice on this approach but I know some folks advocate the approach of getting a big stack early otherwise the cut their losses and move onto the next SNG.

[Woody]

Thanks everybody.

Closeout:
Even ignoring results, I don't really like my play here. I hadn't noticed till I posted how terribly weak my $60 blocking bet on the flop was. The trouble started there and got worse.

Epilogue: Villian made their straight on the turn, hence the all in bet. Qc on the river and I missed my flush and busted out.

Thanks to everybody above who took time out from their busy schedules reviewing RIPJohnGotti's hands.