AJ against maniac, how's my ICM analysis? ($11)

[taipan168]

BB is a maniac. 72/35 over 29 hands. He had pushed over a preflop raise with A7s, A5o, open pushed AI with J8s and basically played most if not all hands. He had typed in the chat box a couple of times "if you try to steal my blind you'll be sorry".

In the hand below:
- If I fold I have 1020 chips worth 9.66% of the prize pool
- If I call and win I have 2490 chips worth 19.67% of the prize pool
- If I call and lose I am out.

Therefore, I need to be at least 49% against his range to make this a good call. Putting him on 22+, A2+, KT+, QJ+ I am 57% to win again his range. Even if he is a little tighter at 44+, A4+ and KJs+ I am 54% to win against this range so should still call.

Anybody think my ranges are too loose for a player like this?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button (t2710)
Hero (t1220)
BB (t4320)
UTG (t940)
MP (t4310)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, J.
UTG calls t50, 2 folds, Hero raises to t200, BB raises to t1400, UTG folds, Hero calls t1020 (All-In).

[ripjohngotti]

Id make it 150 to go preflop then probably fold to his shove.

[Renton]

looks good

[FlyingSaucy]

Against a maniac, presumably blinds going up soon, your M will be low, you've got to take your chances.

[bode]

i think your range is good here. call.

[bode]

{edit: double post}

[ripjohngotti]

WHAT DID HE HAVE? EVEN A MANIAC CAN PICK UP A HAND WHEN IM PLAYING I DONT CARE IF HIS NUMBERS 100/10 OR 10/8 ANYONE AND I MEAN ANYONE CAN PICK UP A BIG HAND AFTER YOU AND GIVEN THE STACK SIZE IT WOULD BE AN EASIER FOLD , AT BEST YOUR FLIPPING UNLESS HE HAS BABY ACE (UNLIKELY BUT POSSIBLE)

HOW IS THIS A CALL WHEN I HELD AJ AND YOU SAID FOLD TO SHORTIES ALL IN. THIS IS THE SAME GAMBLE.

BLINDS ARE PICKING UP SOON? ITS ONLY 50!!!! YOU HAVE ABOUT 20X BB.

IF IT WAS SUITED UD HAVE TO CALL ALL DAY.


PLEASE FOLD. BUT AT LEAST IN THIS SITUATION YOU WERE THE AGGRESSOR.

[Renton]

gotti, you are so far out of your element, that it is a bit sad

[taipan168]

WHAT DID HE HAVE? EVEN A MANIAC CAN PICK UP A HAND, AT BEST YOUR FLIPPING UNLESS HE HAS BABY ACE (UNLIKELY BUT POSSIBLE)

HOW IS THIS A CALL WHEN I HELD AJ AND YOU SAID FOLD TO SHORTIES ALL IN. THIS IS THE SAME GAMBLE.

BLINDS ARE PICKING UP SOON? ITS ONLY 50!!!! YOU HAVE ABOUT 20X BB.

IF IT WAS SUITED UD HAVE TO CALL ALL DAY.


PLEASE FOLD.

Please use part of your BR and buy yourself a new keyboard, clearly your caps lock key is broken.

Against any reasonably normal player I would muck AJ here without a second thought. But this guy was a maniac. I guess you had to be there to really get a sense for it, but did you read what I posted about him pushing over with A-rag?

Also, it's interesting that you would instacall with AJs but instafold AJo. Suitedness only makes 2-3% difference to the equity.

I'm not going to post what he had, it is irrelevant to the discussion.

[midas06]

ripjohngotti, spend less time posting, more time donating. Thanks

[ripjohngotti]

WHAT DID HE HAVE? EVEN A MANIAC CAN PICK UP A HAND, AT BEST YOUR FLIPPING UNLESS HE HAS BABY ACE (UNLIKELY BUT POSSIBLE)

HOW IS THIS A CALL WHEN I HELD AJ AND YOU SAID FOLD TO SHORTIES ALL IN. THIS IS THE SAME GAMBLE.

BLINDS ARE PICKING UP SOON? ITS ONLY 50!!!! YOU HAVE ABOUT 20X BB.

IF IT WAS SUITED UD HAVE TO CALL ALL DAY.


PLEASE FOLD.

Please use part of your BR and buy yourself a new keyboard, clearly your caps lock key is broken.

Against any reasonably normal player I would muck AJ here without a second thought. But this guy was a maniac. I guess you had to be there to really get a sense for it, but did you read what I posted about him pushing over with A-rag?

I'm not going to post what he had, it is irrelevant to the discussion.

K IM WRONG JUST CALL

[swiggidy]

gotti, you are so far out of your element, that it is a bit sad

QFT

Take off the caps-lock please, you look bad enough on the forums as is.

[TLR]

I call this

[JeffreyGB]

I call this

[Da GOAT]

IF IT WAS SUITED UD HAVE TO CALL ALL DAY.

This made ''me laugh, if matrix was here he'd laugh too.'' Bennett-Commando

[TLR]

RipJohnGutti

I will try to take your post seriously (god knows why) and respond to what you wrote:

WHAT DID HE HAVE?

totally irrelevant

A MANIAC CAN PICK UP A HAND WHEN IM PLAYING I DONT CARE IF HIS NUMBERS 100/10 OR 10/8 ANYONE AND I MEAN ANYONE CAN PICK UP A BIG HAND AFTER YOU

Correct, anyone can pick up a hand, but it is a game of probablilites. Everyone picks up AA about 1/221 of the times, and everyone plays AA when they pick them up. However if villian plays every hand it is 1/221 that they have AA, and if villian plays only 1/221 of the hands then they pretty much have AA when they play. This is why the history of a person matters.
Just to run some math
If villian plays 100% of hands you are up against a random hand:
AJo is 64% to win
If villian plays only top 10 hands (AA, KK, AKo, AKs, QQ, JJ, TT, 99,AQs, AQo for example) AJo is 29% to win.

GIVEN THE STACK SIZE IT WOULD BE AN EASIER FOLD

Hero is relatively short stacked, he has to make a move soon.

HOW IS THIS A CALL WHEN I HELD AJ AND YOU SAID FOLD TO SHORTIES ALL IN. THIS IS THE SAME GAMBLE.

Very rarely in poker 'this is the same gamble', stacks differ, # of players differ, read on player differ, position differ etc..

You cant seriously expect anybody to remember on which one of the 2000000000 hands you posted you refer to in this post, if you think it is relevant to the discussion post a link to that hand

BLINDS ARE PICKING UP SOON? ITS ONLY 50!!!! YOU HAVE ABOUT 20X BB.

When blinds will go up his M will be less then 10, while not a desperate sitaution to be in it is definitly onr that requires him to make a move sooner then later

IF IT WAS SUITED UD HAVE TO CALL ALL DAY.

As already said suitness adds about 2-3%, please explain how this makes it move from clear fold to clear call

PLEASE FOLD.

He could, but this would be a mistake, in fact about 90% of the cases that was what villian is hoping for

BUT AT LEAST IN THIS SITUATION YOU WERE THE AGGRESSOR.

He opened the pot but got reraised, it has little relevance to the discussion since according to tapian's read villian has reraised with some crappy hands before

[Barry5]

I hate playing against maniacs but I also hate going out on a coin flip if i believe that i can outplay him.

Here you are short stacked but certainly not desperate and i would just let it go. AJ is ahand that is easily dominated and abetter slot would be where you have first in vigorish, albeit with a worse hand.

Apologies if this sounds weak.

[Mike]

I think it's close to a boarder case. It depends of how much of a maniac he is. I tried to nail one last week on PF. He had J2 and I got KK. Unfortunatley The cards on the board helped him. He got 3456T.

In a tournement awhile ago, I got put all-in on KJs. I folded.

[MuddyWicket]

I pushed a maniac allin with AT having seen some of the rubbish they were raising with, every other hand. They called allin with A5. Board went AA88?. I nearly blew a fuse.

[cjs55]

I pushed a maniac allin with AT having seen some of the rubbish they were raising with, every other hand. They called allin with A5. Board went AA88?. I nearly blew a fuse.

At least it wasn't AA55.


This is a fine call taipain, your second range seems perfectly reasonable for the villain.

[swiggidy]

I hate playing against maniacs but I also hate going out on a coin flip if i believe that i can outplay him.

Here you are short stacked but certainly not desperate and i would just let it go. AJ is ahand that is easily dominated and abetter slot would be where you have first in vigorish, albeit with a worse hand.

Apologies if this sounds weak.

This goes beyond week into not fully understanding the late stages of a SnG.

Part of being able to outplay them is to know when you are ahead and take advantage of it.

[caesar66]

I would call here everytime against a maniac. He is using his big stack to push people around. A-J is plenty ahead of what his range. If he happens to have picked up a good hand, well gg.

[gingerwizard]

I may only be a beginner and therefore wrong, but 5 handed in the SB and with the shortstack is AJ not pretty strong?

If you're letting this go with maniac calling anything to pay you, how will you ever get past the bubble unless you get a high pp?

Feel free to slate me for this. I need to fix my leaks.

[swiggidy]

but 5 handed in the SB and with the shortstack is AJ not very strong?

You are correct sir

[Barry5]

I hate playing against maniacs but I also hate going out on a coin flip if i believe that i can outplay him.

Here you are short stacked but certainly not desperate and i would just let it go. AJ is ahand that is easily dominated and abetter slot would be where you have first in vigorish, albeit with a worse hand.

Apologies if this sounds weak.

This goes beyond week into not fully understanding the late stages of a SnG.


Part of being able to outplay them is to know when you are ahead and
take advantage of it.

OK. Thanks for your comment, which is noted and appreciated

[Random_Hero]

WHAT DID HE HAVE? EVEN A MANIAC CAN PICK UP A HAND WHEN IM PLAYING I DONT CARE IF HIS NUMBERS 100/10 OR 10/8 ANYONE AND I MEAN ANYONE CAN PICK UP A BIG HAND AFTER YOU AND GIVEN THE STACK SIZE IT WOULD BE AN EASIER FOLD , AT BEST YOUR FLIPPING UNLESS HE HAS BABY ACE (UNLIKELY BUT POSSIBLE)

HOW IS THIS A CALL WHEN I HELD AJ AND YOU SAID FOLD TO SHORTIES ALL IN. THIS IS THE SAME GAMBLE.

BLINDS ARE PICKING UP SOON? ITS ONLY 50!!!! YOU HAVE ABOUT 20X BB.

IF IT WAS SUITED UD HAVE TO CALL ALL DAY.


PLEASE FOLD. BUT AT LEAST IN THIS SITUATION YOU WERE THE AGGRESSOR.

did you even read the OP? he's playing a MANIAC which means his range of hands will far looser than most which means his chances of being in front increase.

TLR hit it on the head. re read his post and try to take in just a little of it if you can!

If you think like this then anyone you play agianst regardless of style can be holding any random hand! its a game of information... the more you know about a player the better as you can put them on hand ranges based on the hands they've showndown, how many pots they enter, what they raise with etc etc etc.