Pot odds call or easy fold?

[shysti]

No reads other than this is your standard 5.50 Mtt on stars. Do u call here based off your pot odds or fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 (t2475)
MP3 (t7530)
CO (t1325)
Hero (t1955)
SB (t1190)
BB (t2015)
UTG (t1290)
UTG+1 (t1090)
MP1 (t8870)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, Q.
4 folds, MP3 calls t100, 1 fold, Hero raises to t500, SB raises to t900, BB raises to t1300, MP3 folds, Hero folds, SB calls t290 (All-In).

Flop: (t3090) Q, Q, T (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t3090) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t3090) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t3090

[donkbee]

Results oriented?

Instafold for me.

[drmcboy]

edit out the board, it certainly won't make the replies better.

fold is fine and probably correct with no reads, but I want the big stack. You're about 20% to win against AK and a lower pair (QQ or KK in places of the AK even better) with a chance to almost triple, weee!

And maybe it's two lower pairs or an AJ.

[zenbitz]

I would think BB is on a squeeze to isolate - but then why not push? I lean towards fold. S000ted I might be more tempted to call.

[thenonsequitur]

Looks like a fold to me.

[drmcboy]

why does sooted make a difference? Sooted hands play better if we're taking a flop multiway, here it's 2%.

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	35.9745 %  	34.76% 	01.21%      { AQs }
Hand  2:	43.3619 %  	43.26% 	00.10%      { 88 }
Hand  3:	20.6635 %  	19.45% 	01.21%      { AJs, AJo }

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	33.5469 %  	32.30% 	01.25%      { AQs, AQo }
Hand  2:	45.1959 %  	45.09% 	00.10%      { 88 }
Hand  3:	21.2571 %  	20.01% 	01.25%      { AJs, AJo }

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	24.7768 %  	24.68% 	00.10%      { AQs, AQo }
Hand  2:	56.3598 %  	56.26% 	00.10%      { KK }
Hand  3:	18.8634 %  	18.76% 	00.10%      { 88 }

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	27.1847 %  	27.08% 	00.10%      { AQs }
Hand  2:	54.2731 %  	54.17% 	00.10%      { KK }
Hand  3:	18.5421 %  	18.44% 	00.10%      { 88 }

[shysti]

Results oriented?

Instafold for me.

Never that!! I should of edited out the flop b/c I was more concern with the pre flop play, because I tend to run into trouble with these kind of decisions. Overall, this is a fold situation for me, but after looking at the odds I pondered and posted.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Ummm, why don't you raise 3xBB or something like that preflop instead of 5xbb?

[jdubs]

folding this for sure.

[chardrian]

Ummm, why don't you raise 3xBB or something like that preflop instead of 5xbb?

Because raising to 3x when there is already a limper invites both the SB and BB to come along for the ride.

[IowaSkinsFan]

well how about 4 because i hate the fact that you spent so much to fold to a reraise.

[chardrian]

He folded to a re-reraise. There is no way he should fold to the shortstack's minraise, but when the BB, re-minraises your balls should start to shrivel.

Meh - you need to have a very good read that both your opponents are retards to continue here I think. SB's minraise was basically an "i'm all-in please call me minraise," and unless BB has a read that SB is a retard and he is trying to isolate with a so-so hand, then hi hand should be even better if we apply the gap concept. But at that point, i think we are at like 5th level thinking which I am not sure you can really get to online.

When all is said and done you need to put in 1500 to win 5200 if you win the whole pot or to go down to 1500 if you lose to SB but beat BB.

Since the side pot with BB is really not advantageous, you should only be playing this pot to win the main pot.

You need around a 30% shot to win the whole pot to make it +EV. You need both your opps' to have hands as low as 66+, AT+, to start giving you the odds you need to call (push).

[zenbitz]

why does sooted make a difference? Sooted hands play better if we're taking a flop multiway, here it's 2%.

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	35.9745 %  	34.76% 	01.21%      { AQs }
Hand  2:	43.3619 %  	43.26% 	00.10%      { 88 }
Hand  3:	20.6635 %  	19.45% 	01.21%      { AJs, AJo }

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	33.5469 %  	32.30% 	01.25%      { AQs, AQo }
Hand  2:	45.1959 %  	45.09% 	00.10%      { 88 }
Hand  3:	21.2571 %  	20.01% 	01.25%      { AJs, AJo }

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	24.7768 %  	24.68% 	00.10%      { AQs, AQo }
Hand  2:	56.3598 %  	56.26% 	00.10%      { KK }
Hand  3:	18.8634 %  	18.76% 	00.10%      { 88 }

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	27.1847 %  	27.08% 	00.10%      { AQs }
Hand  2:	54.2731 %  	54.17% 	00.10%      { KK }
Hand  3:	18.5421 %  	18.44% 	00.10%      { 88 }

Isn't is actually twice that? You are comparing AQs to 1/2 AQs+1/2 AQo range... But maybe I am misreading the pokerstove output.

Also this calculation assumes that you are all going to the river, which would be part of the point of flat calling the re-raise. In actuality, you wouldn't do this because it's like 1/2 your stack, so you aren't folding the flop. I was probably drunk when I posted originally.