Why you should not minbet

[TLR]

Full Tilt Poker Game #1062589047: $33 + $3 Sit & Go (Turbo) (7210602), Table 1 - 60/120 - No Limit Hold'em - 6:41:06 ET - 2006/10/03
Seat 1: jvortex (970)
Seat 2: Biddsy (1,530)
Seat 3: Tasty Geezer (2,300)
Seat 4: Forty2u (1,330)
Seat 6: sportforshort (710)
Seat 7: dragonflyhero (1,740)
Seat 9: kartikeya (4,920)
Tasty Geezer posts the small blind of 60
Forty2u posts the big blind of 120
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Forty2u [7h 3d]
sportforshort has 15 seconds left to act
sportforshort raises to 240
dragonflyhero folds
kartikeya folds
jvortex folds
Biddsy calls 240
Tasty Geezer folds
Forty2u calls 120
*** FLOP *** [3s 3h 6s]
Forty2u checks
sportforshort bets 240
Biddsy raises to 1,290, and is all in
Forty2u calls 1,090, and is all in
sportforshort calls 230, and is all in
Biddsy shows [As 6h]
Forty2u shows [7h 3d]
sportforshort shows [9c 9h]
Uncalled bet of 200 returned to Biddsy
*** TURN *** [3s 3h 6s] [Ks]
*** RIVER *** [3s 3h 6s Ks] [Jc]
Biddsy shows two pair, Sixes and Threes
Forty2u shows three of a kind, Threes
Forty2u wins the side pot (1,240) with three of a kind, Threes
sportforshort shows two pair, Nines and Threes
Forty2u wins the main pot (2,190) with three of a kind, Threes
sportforshort stands up
The blinds are now 80/160
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3,430 Main pot 2,190. Side pot 1,240. | Rake 0
Board: [3s 3h 6s Ks Jc]
Seat 1: jvortex didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Biddsy (button) showed [As 6h] and lost with two pair, Sixes and Threes
Seat 3: Tasty Geezer (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: Forty2u (big blind) showed [7h 3d] and won (3,430) with three of a kind, Threes
Seat 6: sportforshort showed [9c 9h] and lost with two pair, Nines and Threes
Seat 7: dragonflyhero didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: kartikeya didn't bet (folded)

Shortstack villian made a classical minbet mistake with short stack, he did not want to push a pretty strong hand 'just to win the blinds' so he tried to be clever and got beaten.

Villian's 2 play is more questionable - both calling the PF minraise and pushing the flop when he only gets called if he is beaten

[taipan168]

How good pot odds do you need preflop to call off almost 10% of your stack with 73o? Are you getting implied odds to hit two pair, trips or better to make the preflop call +EV?

[TLR]

I need to call 120 into a 660 , so I getting 1:5.5 pot odds, that more then plenty.
I would call with any 2 given 4:1, and sometimes even 3:1.

With villian I range at 66+, AJ+, KQ
And villian II range at 55-JJ, KQ, AQ-AT
I aqm 17.5% to win with a well disguised hand, so even ignoring implied odds it is a call, given implied odds its a required call

[MuddyWicket]

I love it when you clean up their AA this way...

[taipan168]

I need to call 120 into a 660 , so I getting 1:5.5 pot odds, that more then plenty.
I would call with any 2 given 4:1, and sometimes even 3:1.

With villian I range at 66+, AJ+, KQ
And villian II range at 55-JJ, KQ, AQ-AT
I aqm 17.5% to win with a well disguised hand, so even ignoring implied odds it is a call, given implied odds its a required call

But the thing is, those odds are only if you see all 5 cards. I guess my question is, even getting 5.5 to 1 on the call, how often will you get a flop that you like enough to go to the felt with and how often will you win enough chips to make the call +EV?

Of course the hand you quoted is a great example, but my guess is that you would flop 2 pair, trips or a straight about 5% of the time, so you will need to win 2400 chips when you hit to make this a good call. Given your stack is 1330, you would have to almost triple up when you hit to make this worthwhile.

[TLR]

I need to call 120 into a 660 , so I getting 1:5.5 pot odds, that more then plenty.
I would call with any 2 given 4:1, and sometimes even 3:1.

With villian I range at 66+, AJ+, KQ
And villian II range at 55-JJ, KQ, AQ-AT
I aqm 17.5% to win with a well disguised hand, so even ignoring implied odds it is a call, given implied odds its a required call

But the thing is, those odds are only if you see all 5 cards. I guess my question is, even getting 5.5 to 1 on the call, how often will you get a flop that you like enough to go to the felt with and how often will you win enough chips to make the call +EV?

Of course the hand you quoted is a great example, but my guess is that you would flop 2 pair, trips or a straight about 5% of the time, so you will need to win 2400 chips when you hit to make this a good call. Given your stack is 1330, you would have to almost triple up when you hit to make this worthwhile.

Given my stack size I am willing to go to the felt with a lot less - OESD, TP+gutshut , since I have some fold equity

The point is that if you hit your hand you are very likely to double up at least since nobody will give you credit for such a weak hand, if he would have raised like he meant it (3BB or more) I would have folded my weak hand in a heartbeat

[LeFou]

I think this should be renamed: why you should not minbet weak TP hands.

Plenty of other hands profit from minbets/raises, depending on the table. And depending on your ability to play a draw.

[TLR]

I think this should be renamed: why you should not minbet weak TP hands.

Plenty of other hands profit from minbets/raises, depending on the table. And depending on your ability to play a draw.

villian minbets pocket 9's preflop

[johnny_fish]

All 3 players played it wrong. Taipan explains it well.

[taipan168]

All 3 players played it wrong.

I agree with this, all players played preflop badly:
- With 6x BB left, Mr. 99 should have just shoved from UTG. I think this is a +EV shove at all calling ranges.
- Mr. A6o had absolutely no business being in the hand, even from the button and even to a minraise. If it was folded to him that's a different story but what does he honestly think he's ahead of here?
- Hero should have just folded preflop, even with the tasty pot odds - because his stack is 11x BB he needs to preserve his chips for good push/fold opportunities.

[TLR]

All 3 players played it wrong.

I agree with this, all players played preflop badly:
- With 6x BB left, Mr. 99 should have just shoved from UTG. I think this is a +EV shove at all calling ranges.
- Mr. A6o had absolutely no business being in the hand, even from the button and even to a minraise. If it was folded to him that's a different story but what does he honestly think he's ahead of here?
- Hero should have just folded preflop, even with the tasty pot odds - because his stack is 11x BB he needs to preserve his chips for good push/fold opportunities.

99 should have pushed
A6 should haev folded
After reviewing the hand I am still not sure folding from the BB to a minraise is a mistake, but I agree it is not a clear call

[taipan168]

All 3 players played it wrong.

I agree with this, all players played preflop badly:
- With 6x BB left, Mr. 99 should have just shoved from UTG. I think this is a +EV shove at all calling ranges.
- Mr. A6o had absolutely no business being in the hand, even from the button and even to a minraise. If it was folded to him that's a different story but what does he honestly think he's ahead of here?
- Hero should have just folded preflop, even with the tasty pot odds - because his stack is 11x BB he needs to preserve his chips for good push/fold opportunities.

99 should have pushed
A6 should haev folded
After reviewing the hand I am still not sure folding from the BB to a minraise is a mistake, but I agree it is not a clear call

Yeah, you said it much more concisely than I did, I must have a case of verbal diarrhoea