Gigabet dilemma: Push or Fold?

[Erudito]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG (t3210)
MP (t1690)
Button (t4425)
SB (t2350)
Hero (t1825)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, 7.
2 folds, Button raises to t400, 1 fold, Hero raises to t1825, Button calls t1425.

Flop: (t3750) 8, 9, J (2 players)

Turn: (t3750) K (2 players)

River: (t3750) 3 (2 players)

Final Pot: t3750

How would you have played pre-flop: Fold or Push? I pushed and I checked this hand in SnGPT, I gave the RAISE and PUSH range for Button to 25%. For those of you without SnGPT, it is a negative EV of 4.3%. So here's the dilemma, would you still PUSH?

[taipan168]

Absent any reads on Button (specifically, that he has minraised previously and folded to pushes), this one is an easy fold for me. Your hand has poor showdown value so you're relying on fold equity for this to be +EV.

The other thing I don't like about this push is that Button is the big stack.

[Erudito]

taipan168 wrote:

Absent any reads on Button (specifically, that he has minraised previously and folded to pushes), this one is an easy fold for me.

Button is a player from UK. From the GMT time difference, it is about 3:15 A.M. in UK. I figured that Button was on tilt and steaming. He must be playing all night and he must be steaming. This was my read on the button. He was shifting gears, sometimes he would play loose, sometimes he would play tight. The problem was that he was shifting gears too many times.

[swiggidy]

I do not have SngPT, but isn't -4% pretty huge?

Also, this has nothing to do with the gigabet dilemma. GD refers to taking -eV chances, as a medium to large stack. Never when you're on the edge of busting out. This is pure ICM (hence SnGPT says no).

[taipan168]

Button is a player from UK. From the GMT time difference, it is about 3:15 A.M. in UK. I figured that Button was on tilt and steaming. He must be playing all night and he must be steaming. This was my read on the button. He was shifting gears, sometimes he would play loose, sometimes he would play tight. The problem was that he was shifting gears too many times.

This makes it an even easier fold for me. 87o has very poor showdown value so even if he is minraising with two random cards and will call your push because he is steaming, you are behind when you consider the ICM value of your stack. Plus, you have 8x BB if you fold this which is short but not totally desperate.

[johnny_fish]

EV fold: 0.1389
EV push and Villain folds: 0.1825
EV push, Villain calls, Hero wins: 0.2545

87o wins 33% vs. top 25%. Let's assume button calls half the time if he raises in this spot.

The EV of a push is then 0.1332, so it really depends on what you think his minraise means.

[scarface737]

fold and regret it go on tilt push and get called

either way ur going out. keep ur chips pick a better spot.

[scarface737]

fold and regret it go on tilt push and get called

either way ur going out. keep ur chips pick a better spot.

[swiggidy]

EV fold: 0.1389
EV push and Villain folds: 0.1825
EV push, Villain calls, Hero wins: 0.2545

87o wins 33% vs. top 25%. Let's assume button calls half the time if he raises in this spot.

The EV of a push is then 0.1332, so it really depends on what you think his minraise means.

"EV of a push is then 0.1332" < "EV fold: 0.1389"

Did I miss something?