|
|
 Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
So you're behind QQ, 88, and 56, but beating 44 and any badly played two-pair hands or draws. You've got a flush draw, but it's about as bad a flush is as possible. You've also got a gutshot straight draw.
I think I fold here. I tend to regard Omaha as searching for the nuts and there are just too many plausible hands that beat you. Any reads on BB? What is he doing with two-pair on this flop? I'm actually starting to get interested in improving my Omaha game, so please share any/all of your thoughts in the hand.
Ok, regarding your original series of hands that you posted, only QQ and 88 matter on this flop. That flop is very VERY draw heavy. Any reasonable player with QQ is reraising me. We can be almost certain that our opponents do not have QQ. There is some small chance that BB could have 88, but as we get second and third callers, the likelihood that either of them have 88 is very close to zero. Essentially, everyone is on the draw or has one (including hands like KKxx underneath) or two pair hands, and the turn will determine what to do next. I am checking any spade, or 6, 9-J. I will lead with a Q or 8, but will absolutely fold to a raise. If the turn is an A or K, we risk getting burned playing loose like this.
Turn is a 4. I lead, BB pots it, all fold back to me. Given the "read" preflop that he's on a draw, IMO his most likely hand is 56. Alternatively, here's an estimate of the rest of his hand range:
56xx
56AhXh
9TJx
9TJx (2 hearts or 2 spades or both)
QQxx or 88xx or 44xx or other with another potential weak draw
Bluff
Assign percentages to the above ranges, and then make a decision. Just to give you a head start. Here are my outs against 56. You can estimate the difference against the other hand ranges afterwards.
1 - seven
3 - sixes
3 - Queens
3 - eights
6 hearts (I have 3 in my hand, and already counted the Q & 8)
Pot is offering me 2:1 odds.
Final thoughts. Your comments about playing for the nuts, or the hands that we're behind are important to consider that these hands are also hands that our opponents are also worried about. Something to consider.
|