33 UTG+1 problems

[Hartlin]

$4 180 man SNG/MTT

Do you raise here or dump it? No reads

Seat 1: zorby (4680 in chips)
Seat 2: Barrac11 (8764 in chips)
Seat 3: spleif (15203 in chips)
Seat 4: geneboys (22540 in chips)
Seat 5: isnoplace (20867 in chips)
Seat 6: Gatormet (14200 in chips)
Seat 7: NASLUND#1 (12760 in chips)
Seat 8: JWALK (7265 in chips)
Seat 9: Clipper00 (38056 in chips)
zorby: posts the ante 50
Barrac11: posts the ante 50
spleif: posts the ante 50
geneboys: posts the ante 50
isnoplace: posts the ante 50
Gatormet: posts the ante 50
NASLUND#1: posts the ante 50
JWALK: posts the ante 50
Clipper00: posts the ante 50
geneboys: posts small blind 400
isnoplace: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to NASLUND#1: [3c][3h]
Gatormet: folds
NASLUND#1: raises 1600 to 2400

Can we get some discussion here as to whether or not a raise if right here, or, if not, what is the right play and why?

Thanks, his hnad really had me confused as to how to play it with my stack the way it is.

[donkbee]

How's the table? Is it tight? Have people been very active? Are you likely to be repopped? Obviously you would rather have a tight table to raise this. Also, what is your image at the table? It's better if it's tight for you to be raising this in such EP.

I would probably only raise it to 2000 instead of 2400 barring some specific reason you're raising to 3bb instead of 2.5.

I like raising PPs and stealing blinds that way. You gotta be aware of how your table reacts to such raises though.

P.S. Do you live in Vancouver? Or are you a Naslund fan from outside of my beautiful city?

[Sprayed]

I fold this preflop. You have to go through too many people to steal the blinds. You hit your set 1-8 times, so you can't play this for set value here. In addition, there are a couple short stacks that may push and you would have to call due to pot odds. I toss these small pps away in ep and sometimes in mp. Depends on the table.

[scarface737]

i dont think a raise is right here with that low of a pp u can easily be dominated. Folding or limping to try to hit the set and win big are best.

[JeffreyGB]

There's basically nothing I'll limp this late into a tournament. If I'm playing it, I'm raising - probably to 2000 for the reasons courtie discussed. That said, I doubt I'm playing 33 here. Your stack and position both make playing 33 very problematic. Your M is just under 8. I'd look to have either a few more chips or a few less chips to play this hand (so that either I'm pushing preflop to apply maximum pressure, or I can make a standard raise without it eating up a huge chunk of my stack if I lose).

[zenbitz]

I think it's clear from the posts here - there is no "correct move" here. A limp is probably bad, since your stack is too shallow to play for a set.

I am not sure that the smaller raise here is better than 3x, 4x or push. You are really happier if everyone folds, so you should have some idea what size raise that is. Folding here is not terrible at all since your position is so bad.

[Aces]

Isn't the sb/bb having the biggest stacks also another reason to fold?

[chardrian]

Doesnt the blinds + antes = more than 10% of your stack give you a good reason to try and take the blinds?

[Hartlin]

Well, blinds/antes were definitely what I was after, wasn't looking for a call for sure... starting to wonder if raising these from such EP is profitable or not..

[drmcboy]

courtieb posted one like this a while back, me and Char argued a while.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-41969.htm


IMO, the question is whether you want to try and steal the pot, cards be damned. 33 is better than two random cards in that if you hit you'll almost surely be good (as compared to some TPNK etc spots you may get in with 'junk'), but that's about it.

I have yet to see a good arguement for raising a small pair OOP in spots like this that couldn't also be made for raising 45s or T70 here.

With no feel as to how often raises are being called/pushed over, I usually fold here.

but with no table image or reads or previous play to go on, I don't think raising with these stack sizes can ever be wrong.

[chardrian]

I have yet to see a good arguement for raising a small pair OOP in spots like this that couldn't also be made for raising 45s or T70 here.

In general I agree with you, for most situations whether u r raising with 45s or with 33 makes no difference because you almost always will have to represent a better hand than you actually have if you want to continue after the flop.

But I do think that raising with a pp is better than raising with unpaired junk hands because raising with a pp guarantees that you will have at least one pair on the flop. The reason this is important is for flops like 88J or even 59Q where you actually will be betting the flop thinking that you are most likely ahead. You don't get that luxury as often with unpaired junk.

[drmcboy]

same arguement as the last thread. if you get called on the 88J flop are you ahead? no. maybe you're a slight favorite against something like QT but still I like his chances to move you off later. you still may as well have 45s.

[zenbitz]

well, with an M of 8, you are not likely folding the turn if you put any money in on the turn.

That is why a 33 is better (somewhat) that 57 - in both cases, you will most likely be against overcards pre-flop. If you have 33 and bet - obviously you will be called when the guy hit but SOMETIMES he will call with A-high or a draw, and in those somewhat rare cases, having 33 is better than 57 (that whiffed).

[drmcboy]

equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	48.6091 %  	47.90% 	00.71%      { 33 }
Hand  2:	51.3909 %  	50.68% 	00.71%      { T9s, T9o }

Hand  1:	34.5810 %  	33.68% 	00.90%      { 75s, 75o }
Hand  2:	65.4190 %  	64.52% 	00.90%      { T9s, T9o }

OK. Seems like splitting hairs to me, since 90% of the time you check fold turn anyway. If you bluff twice into that board for your whole stack... you are quality. If this is the arguement for 33 vs 57o I still think you play either one. I haven't even brought up a J 64 board yet.

[KoRnholio]

I dump this as fast as I can click fold. Stealing the blinds from late position is good. Stealing the blinds with a crap hand from UTG+1 is not.

Sure 33 is a better hand than 75o to steal with, but either way you don't want to get called or raised after making this steal. Stay out of trouble and dump this from early position.

[FlyingSaucy]

To me, in this spot, I dump 33 just about every time, particularly with both players in the blinds having M>12.

I like that people are reasoning about this, it helps me understand something that I'm doing by intuition without much thought. I never thought about how this is virtually the same as raising with low garbage - you're looking to take it preflop because on nearly any flop you will have scare cards to face agaist a preflop caller. It really is just a steal attempt at this point.

The only way I do not dump it preflop is if all of the players left to act have been extremely weak tight against EP raises, in which case I do pump in about 2000-2400 and hope to god for folds. It's a sucky hand to have on almost any flop that someone called your preflop bet with, especially oop.

What do you do if you are reraised from LP? You are pretty much forced to gamble with it, hoping you are facing a coinflip rather than another pocket pair.

[chardrian]

same arguement as the last thread. if you get called on the 88J flop are you ahead? no. maybe you're a slight favorite against something like QT but still I like his chances to move you off later. you still may as well have 45s.

I disagree. With a flop like 88J you are going to be called more than you think with guys who hold hands like AQ or AK. You don't want to be called with 45 in that spot, but you definitely do with 33.

[drmcboy]

if you opps are so bad they are calling with AK on J88 board, you can find better spots than this to get the money.

past that, tell me why you want this call? are you betting double the pot? You're ahead, but in addition to the actual draw, there are other scare cards - Q, T, 9.

Board: 8c 8d Jh 
Dead:  

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	40.5619 %  	40.11% 	00.45%      { AKs, AKo }
Hand  2:	59.4381 %  	58.98% 	00.45%      { 33 }

[chardrian]

Meh - I think we are starting to get away from the actual hand now.

I would rather have 33 than a hand like 9Ts even though 33 is a dog to 9Ts heads up.

The first question is should we raise with 33 here preflop?

I think we are all in agreement that the answer is it depends on reads and with no reads there is really no fault in either raising or folding.

The second question which we have now made is would you rather raise here with 33 or 9Ts preflop?

Again - it is so tight that it doesn't really matter. In either case you are raising preflop with the major goal to steal the blinds and if you do get called you at least have the fallback that you have a hand that could possibly hit a major flop for you.

[drmcboy]

you are raising preflop with the major goal to steal the blinds and if you do get called you at least have the fallback that you have a hand that could possibly hit a major flop for you.

this is all I'm trying to point out. Beyond the fact that it is not trash, the fact that it is 33 is not relevant.

[zenbitz]

Isn't this a 2-street hand with M=8?
Pot = 1M before you bet. You raise 2M, and are called, so there is 5M in the pot, and you have 6M behind. You can still fold the flop - but not the turn (unless flop is checked around)??