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 Originally Posted by biondino
I still abhor this assumption that people will earn more WHENEVER they move up. If they don't have the skill, they won't earn more, full stop! Let's say moving up a limit knocks 3BB/100 off your winrate (the figure is irrelevant, I need an arbitrary number to illustrate the point). If you're a 10BB/100 winner at 25 then you're a 7 bb/100 winner at 50, great, it makes sense.
However, if you're a 2BB/100 winner at 25 and therefore a -1BB/100 loser at 50, then the maths is pretty fucking clear. You won't just be making LESS money, you'll be LOSING money, and losing it at twice as fast a rate.
NB if this concept has any worth, then you'd need to be making 6BB/100 at 25 just to break even when you move up. What proportion of poker players make that much? 5%? 10%? While I' m sure many FTRers have honed their skills and are easily beating their current limits, it's a point of fact that only the small minority of players are in this situation, yet most of the posters on here are assuming that everyone can comfortably move up, remain a winning player and increase their BR.
Moving up doesnt necessarily lower your bbs/100 rate. If you are a nitty but fair winner then you are just as likely to run 2bbs/100 at 100nl as you are at 400nl imo. Certain hands will still get paid off and other wont.
Its a horrible assumption that your winrate automatically decreases so that when you are a 2bbs/100 winner you just become a breakeven player. I think its more likely 2bbs/100 at 100nl stays the same at 200nl, 400nl etc because certain situations will allways arise where your hand gets paid off. Look at Ilikeaces. His game isnt complex, yet hes an omgwtf big winner in fairly high stakes games.
I really wnat to mention something on bankroll babies and being scared but i wont. But ill mention it in passing anyway.
The single determining factor of what stakes you can play is your bankroll. Therefore, playing under rolled is a seriou mistake, and surely isnt being overrolled a similarily big mistake unless you have a lot of hands that prove you cant move up? Sure, if you play a number of hands and suck, you have proof tha tthe skill is not there, but until you do this it seems -ev to be playing small stakes when you could be playing higher ones.
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