QQ facing all-in on the flop

[Tom42]

Allright, I think this is an interesting hand from a mathematical viewpoint, things are complicated by the second all-in. The board is very draw heavy, so draws are obviously in villains ranges, sets/double pair are a real possibility too. I had a really hard time figuring this one out on the spot.

Both villains were LAGS. Bigstack SB was 35/21/2.5 over 300 hands and shortstack BB was 35/17/2.5 over 80 hands.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($49)
Hero ($98.50)
Button ($91.55)
SB ($249.30)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, Q. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, SB (poster) calls $3.50, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($12) 5, 8, 7 (3 players)
SB bets $8, BB calls $8, Hero raises to $25, SB calls $237.30 (All-In), BB calls $37 (All-In), Hero ???

[Muzzard]

IMO set vs draw... The BB is a shorty and probably wants to double up on his draw. The SB pprobably has a set or a combo draw, such as A5h/A6h or even OESFD is a possibility.

I think he has the BB dominated and you should fold this hand with so much action

[elipsesjeff]

Its what, $60 to call here in a $180ish pot already, It is close. SB's line is so very much a set or 2 pair line, you are sure to be behind most of the time and I would just fold it as well.

[aislephive]

Fold.

[Tom42]

I almost timed out... and folded thinking even if both villains had draws, I'd be behind.

Turns out both villains indeed had draws, SB had the OESFLD and BB had OESD and an ace :

Hero folds.

Turn: ($327.30) 4 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($327.30) K (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $327.30

BB has Ad 6d (straight, eight high).
SB has 9h Th (flush, ten high).
Outcome: SB wins $327.30.


I ran the specific hands through pokerstove. Even with both villain having draws, calling is only slightly EV+, given the 1-3 pot odds :

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 27.7962 % 27.80% 00.00% { QdQh }
Hand 2: 50.0554 % 50.06% 00.00% { Th9h }
Hand 3: 22.1484 % 22.15% 00.00% { Ad6d }

So, folding is never a big mistake here, nh.


Edit : i didn't take the sidepot into account :

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 47.3737 % 47.37% 00.00% { QdQh }
Hand 2: 52.6263 % 52.63% 00.00% { Th9h }

Calling would definatly be EV+ if we could put villains on said specific hands.

[mcatdog]

I think this is definitely a situation where if you don't know how to respond to a re-raise all-in, you shouldn't be raising the flop in the first place. If the SB has a draw, he's facing resistance from 2 players with position on him and there's a good chance he'll slow down if he air-balls the turn.

[Tom42]

I think this is definitely a situation where if you don't know how to respond to a re-raise all-in, you shouldn't be raising the flop in the first place. If the SB has a draw, he's facing resistance from 2 players with position on him and there's a good chance he'll slow down if he air-balls the turn.

Good point, I don't like giving draws a free card though.

[mcatdog]

Look at those equity percentages again. He's not the one who is drawing, you are, so take the cheap turn card. Your outs are an offsuit two, three, ten, jack, or queen. I'd be comfortable playing a big pot if the turn is one of those 17 cards and you're getting good enough odds to call and hope that the turn is one of them.

[Ravageur]

Look at those equity percentages again. He's not the one who is drawing, you are, so take the cheap turn card. Your outs are an offsuit two, three, ten, jack, or queen. I'd be comfortable playing a big pot if the turn is one of those 17 cards and you're getting good enough odds to call and hope that the turn is one of them.

Hmm...I don't entirely disagree but I think the way he played it is pretty good as well. Raise the flop to find out where people are at and fold when people go crazy on you like what happened. It's a relatively fair assumption that you're ahead on that flop so just calling and hoping for a brick turn seems a bit passive to me. If you're looking to play a small pot with qq here though,then it's fine. Depends on styles mebbe

[Tom42]

Look at those equity percentages again. He's not the one who is drawing, you are, so take the cheap turn card. Your outs are an offsuit two, three, ten, jack, or queen. I'd be comfortable playing a big pot if the turn is one of those 17 cards and you're getting good enough odds to call and hope that the turn is one of them.

Yes, I see what you're saying, but we can't put villains on such strong hands after one flop bet on a low flop. We do know that one or maybe both villains are drawing however.

[aislephive]

I think this is definitely a situation where if you don't know how to respond to a re-raise all-in, you shouldn't be raising the flop in the first place. If the SB has a draw, he's facing resistance from 2 players with position on him and there's a good chance he'll slow down if he air-balls the turn.

The standard play is to raise this flop and fold to a push.

[mcatdog]

Hmm...I don't entirely disagree but I think the way he played it is pretty good as well. Raise the flop to find out where people are at and fold when people go crazy on you like what happened. It's a relatively fair assumption that you're ahead on that flop so just calling and hoping for a brick turn seems a bit passive to me. If you're looking to play a small pot with qq here though,then it's fine. Depends on styles mebbe

I'm not necessarily looking to play a small pot, I just want to wait until the turn to decide how big of a pot I want to play. His raise gets two folds here just about never. More often than not he's going to just get called by one or both of them, and then he'll be in a really shitty spot if the turn card isn't one of the cards that I mentioned. I don't think calling and raising a blank turn all-in is a passive line.

[mcatdog]

I think this is definitely a situation where if you don't know how to respond to a re-raise all-in, you shouldn't be raising the flop in the first place. If the SB has a draw, he's facing resistance from 2 players with position on him and there's a good chance he'll slow down if he air-balls the turn.

The standard play is to raise this flop and fold to a push.

That's really not standard for me, what's the standard play if you get called and the turn is one of the more than half of the cards left in the deck that you don't like to see?

[aislephive]

I think this is definitely a situation where if you don't know how to respond to a re-raise all-in, you shouldn't be raising the flop in the first place. If the SB has a draw, he's facing resistance from 2 players with position on him and there's a good chance he'll slow down if he air-balls the turn.

The standard play is to raise this flop and fold to a push.

That's really not standard for me, what's the standard play if you get called and the turn is one of the more than half of the cards left in the deck that you don't like to see?

It depends on the card and how they react to it. I'm shoving anything that resembles a blank turn. Sometimes you might just call and get the money in on a safe turn, but you definitely need to raise after the shortstack calls inbetween, you want to raise to isolate. Usually the initial bettor will just fold and you get it heads up with the shortstack.