Euro SNG Experiment part 2 discussion thread

[Da GOAT]

will be up in a few minutes.

tell me if there are any mistakes. this is the final piece before the tables were joined up. i should be able to get the next part up some time tomorrow. its 00:30 now my time and just got the last HH there so i thought id throw you this bone to maul till i get the real part of the game going.

[TLR]

Hand#8: Even 4 handed I dont like raising K-low, I prefer to have to medium cards (7-9, T-8) that have a better chance to make top or mid pair.

Hand#17: Intersting hand.
Sigrud: 4 handed when I am playing Laggy I was surprised you did not raise PP, to either take the pot down or at least get heads up, 4 handed 88 is too strong to just hunt for a set even if it is early.
The flop is relatively good for you, you have overpair, it is unlikely that someone has a better overpair. Set or made flush are possible but pretty unlikely, I would take a stab at the pot.

Pants: I think your move was a bit dangerous this early, with one more person to act behind you who raise preflop. I would call you with any PP 55+, AcX, KcX

Hand#18: My raise was small since my goal was to define my hand without investing too much

[taipan168]

18 and 19 - TLR outplayed me

[Pants_101]

Hand#17: Intersting hand.
Sigrud: 4 handed when I am playing Laggy I was surprised you did not raise PP, to either take the pot down or at least get heads up, 4 handed 88 is too strong to just hunt for a set even if it is early.
The flop is relatively good for you, you have overpair, it is unlikely that someone has a better overpair. Set or made flush are possible but pretty unlikely, I would take a stab at the pot.

Pants: I think your move was a bit dangerous this early, with one more person to act behind you who raise preflop. I would call you with any PP 55+, AcX, KcX


Hand#18: My raise was small since my goal was to define my hand without investing too much

Yeah hand 17 was a little risky but I figured your raises could well only indicate decent hands as you made so many of them. Sigurd's check said to me that he was afraid of the flop otherwise he would have led out as this was his best chance of winning the pot. (Apart from c/r I guess) In all I thought it was worth a bluff. A bit suprised Sigurd didn't even call with the over pair though.

18 and 19 - TLR outplayed me

18 is tough, that flop almost certainly missed TLR since he re-raised so you are only losing if he has a higher PP. Trouble is finding out is expensive as he lead into you. Folding is certainly safe, re-raising would have been interesting. Guess this is why everyone advocates aggression. Interesting to me that you use a small raise in this way, I was just assuming they meant a lot of strength which is clearly a mistake on my part. Good to find this out.

[TLR]

Pants wrote:

Yeah hand 17 was a little risky but I figured your raises could well only indicate decent hands as you made so many of them. Sigurd's check said to me that he was afraid of the flop otherwise he would have led out as this was his best chance of winning the pot. (Apart from c/r I guess) In all I thought it was worth a bluff. A bit suprised Sigurd didn't even call with the over pair though.

Well played

Interesting to me that you use a small raise in this way, I was just assuming they meant a lot of strength which is clearly a mistake on my part. Good to find this out.

When the pot is heads up I usually dont reraise by too much, If I have a big pair I want action, and If I dont have a big pair I want information cheaply

[Da GOAT]

Wow first time i really focused on the hands here.

hand 17 and 18 jeez. i know stay tight early but 88 and 77 on under card flops not even trying to take the hand down. christ this is sssssssooooooooooo weak tight that its wrong.

[taipan168]

hand 17 and 18 jeez. i know stay tight early but 88 and 77 on under card flops not even trying to take the hand down. christ this is sssssssooooooooooo weak tight that its wrong.

OK on Hand 18, TLR's preflop re-raise to me looks like a pocket pair 88+ or AJ+ (probably AQ+). He leads for 2/3 pot which is very consistent with an overpair betting for value or protecting against the flush draw. When it gets to me there is 490 in the pot so if I want to raise I will need to raise to at least 500, if TLR pushes over I can't possibly call with a weak overpair like 77:

Board: 4c 2h 3c 
Dead:  

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	62.9057 %  	62.25% 	00.65%      { 88+, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand  2:	37.0943 %  	36.44% 	00.65%      { 7d7s }

This early I am not going to fry like 35-40% of my stack just to find out I was beat after all, I think I can find better spots than this.

Hand 17 is super weak/tight though

[Da GOAT]

[quote="taipan168"]

ha He leads for 2/3 pot which is very consistent with an overpair betting for value or protecting against the flush draw.

or its just a c/b on a textureless flop. i defo reraise his c/b here.

also his range can be a bit wider here plus you have FE against some of those hands.

[taipan168]

He leads for 2/3 pot which is very consistent with an overpair betting for value or protecting against the flush draw.

or its just a c/b on a textureless flop. i defo reraise his c/b here.

Flop is not textureless, there is a flush draw there and any A that would re-raise preflop has a wheel draw and 2 overcards!

The other issue is how much do you raise on the flop if you are going to raise? Has to be at least 500 and he is pushing over with many of the 88+ overpairs and most probably with AcJc+, I have to fold and then have burned like 1/3 of my stack on that flop. He knows I don't have QQ+ since I would repop him preflop with those hands (although I might try to trap).

also his range can be a bit wider here plus you have FE against some of those hands.

What hands do you realistically think he is re-raising here and what will he lay down to a flop raise? Maybe TLR can answer this...

[Pants_101]

By the way my above analysis of hand 17 is a result of me sitting down and really analysing what my instincts were telling me, I don't claim to have worked it out that thoroughly at the time! Very useful to do though I'm glad we are doing this discussion.

So for all the people playing weak tight early how do you (we) deal with the fact that people can take us off nearly any hand by betting into us or re-raising us? I see the goat's point about the re-raising TLR and I see taipan's point about protecting his stack and seeking a better place to fight. Thing is it's easy to put chips in with 3 aces but there's edge in realising when a weak hand is still ahead right?

[TLR]

Da GOAT wrote:
also his range can be a bit wider here plus you have FE against some of those hands.

What hands do you realistically think he is re-raising here and what will he lay down to a flop raise? Maybe TLR can answer this...

4 handed I will probably raise AT+, 88+, and call with lower PP.
If Tai would come over the top of my c-bet I respect that, I come over the top with TT+.
ATc+ I would push as will I think on this specific flop, since I have outs for flush + str8 = 12 outs to beat a set, with the 3 A and maybe 3 T's as live outs as well

[Da GOAT]

okay ive just pasted the hand below so i remember the little things.

TLR has been quite active lately plus he knows your weak/tight early, just a thought.

preflop is fine.

flop he c/b's......okay so what c/b's. Any PP at all, any whiffed face cards through AT+,KQ maybe.

okay flop aint perfect but its okay.

if you raise to 500(calling and folding are bad for me)
-he will fold low PP that missed below yours
-he will fold all A9+ hands without 2 clubs (there are so many comos here) and he wont consider getting it allin with 2 overcards which may not be clear outs and 4 outs to a wheel which may only tie the pot.

only hands that will push over are higher PP or Ax of clubs.

now i think there is a major probabilty balance of his hands being the foldable type.
plus if he has stronger hands he will push over and you will fold, you are still left with 1000 chips at such an early stage with blinds going so slow PLUS you are techically better than most players at this table and when we join. (no offense to any of the others)

i just think this weak/tight thing is getting a bit overboard when you could be ahead.

personally i guess im kinda playing this like it was at a later stage of the game but if im ahead i wanna play.

PokerStars Game #6680368396: Tournament #33638131, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit -
Level I (10/20) - 2006/10/18 - 16:08:10 (ET)
Table '33638131 2' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: taipan168 (1530 in chips)
Seat 2: Sigurd2 (1510 in chips)
Seat 5: Pantz_101 (1550 in chips)
Seat 9: Forty2u (1410 in chips)
Pantz_101: posts small blind 10
Forty2u: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
taipan168: raises 40 to 60[7d 7s]
Sigurd2: folds[Kc 4d]
Pantz_101: folds[9d Th]
Forty2u: raises 80 to 140[Qs Ac]
taipan168: calls 80
*** FLOP *** [4c 2h 3c]
Forty2u: bets 200
taipan168: folds
Forty2u collected 290 from pot
Forty2u: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 290 | Rake 0
Board [4c 2h 3c]
Seat 1: taipan168 folded on the Flop
Seat 2: Sigurd2 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Pantz_101 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: Forty2u (big blind) collected (290)

[taipan168]

OK, I've been thinking at the time we played the game about this hand. In the time I had to think about it, I thought it was about 50/50 that TLR was c-betting when he missed the flop or had a better overpair.

When TLR re-raised I put him on 88+, AQ+. When it gets to me there is 490 in the pot after TLR's 200 bet so I need to raise to 500 so if he folds 50% of the time this is profitable (not taking ICM into account for now). Assume that the only two outcomes are TLR pushes over and I fold or TLR folds. He said that if I raised his flop bet he would push over with TT+ or Ax clubs and fold the rest. That said:

- There are 30 ways he could be dealt TT+ and 2 ways he could be dealt AcKc or AcQc so there are 32 hands he would push over
- There are 12 ways he could be dealt 88-99 and 30 ways he could be dealt AK/AQ with <2 clubs so 42 hands he would fold.

On this basis he's pushing over 43% of the time and folding 57% of the time. Adding in the ICM effect that the 500 chips I would win if he folds are worth less than the 500 chips that I lose if he pushes over, I think it is closer to 50/50.

If you include AJ and AT in TLR's re-raising range the analysis becomes 34 hands he pushes over and 60 hands he folds, so had I known that AJ and AT were in his re-raising range I should have raised his flop bet.

Hope that resolves the issue!

[Da GOAT]

OK, I've been thinking at the time we played the game about this hand. In the time I had to think about it, I thought it was about 50/50 that TLR was c-betting when he missed the flop or had a better overpair.

When TLR re-raised I put him on 88+, AQ+. When it gets to me there is 490 in the pot after TLR's 200 bet so I need to raise to 500 so if he folds 50% of the time this is profitable (not taking ICM into account for now). Assume that the only two outcomes are TLR pushes over and I fold or TLR folds. He said that if I raised his flop bet he would push over with TT+ or Ax clubs and fold the rest. That said:

- There are 30 ways he could be dealt TT+ and 2 ways he could be dealt AcKc or AcQc so there are 32 hands he would push over
- There are 12 ways he could be dealt 88-99 and 30 ways he could be dealt AK/AQ with <2 clubs so 42 hands he would fold.

On this basis he's pushing over 43% of the time and folding 57% of the time. Adding in the ICM effect that the 500 chips I would win if he folds are worth less than the 500 chips that I lose if he pushes over, I think it is closer to 50/50.

If you include AJ and AT in TLR's re-raising range the analysis becomes 34 hands he pushes over and 60 hands he folds, so had I known that AJ and AT were in his re-raising range I should have raised his flop bet.

Hope that resolves the issue!

haha it does if you have limited his range to your estimate, issue resolved.