Standard push or 3xBB raise?

[gingerwizard]

PokerStars Game #6820905747: Tournament #34743747, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2006/10/29 - 19:56:59 (ET)
Table '34743747 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 2: Hero (1995 in chips)
Seat 5: 6263 (8465 in chips)
Seat 7: HOOK1222 (1250 in chips)
Seat 9: bhsws2 (1790 in chips)
HOOK1222: posts small blind 100
bhsws2: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Ah Th]

[taipan168]

Shoving would be -EV here. I make it 500 to go, folding to a push from the big stack but calling a push from either of the other two stacks.

Interestingly enough at the next level (100/200 ante 25) this becomes a push.

[vqc]

at 100/200 and 25 antes, pretending that ur at 150/300 blinds with no antes is a relatively safe bet. Especially if its like 5 or 6 handed and its folded to you CO or Button.

[fjuanl]

taipan how is shoving -EV?

[vqc]

taipan how is shoving -EV?

well its one of those situations where your ranges have to be pretty exact in order for your push to be happy

if you assume that all 3 players call within the same range then your break even at around 9% 66,AT0,A9s

the analysis depends on the fact that once ONE PLAYER CALLS, the REST FOLD. Again remember what the analysis depends on. If the SB calls 100% of the time, this means that the BB will NEVER CALL (which is unreasonable to say the least and is a limitation to the analysis). e

[taipan168]

taipan how is shoving -EV?

Yeah this seemed counterintuitive to me until I ran it through SNGPT/SNGWiz.

Say Button calls with 15% (33+,A8+,A4s+,KTs+) and the blinds call with 8% (66+,AJ+,ATs+) this is -0.26% EV. It is one of those strange bubble things where the chance that you lose your whole stack is much more -EV than doubling up/stealing the blinds is +EV.

[TLR]

taipan how is shoving -EV?

Yeah this seemed counterintuitive to me until I ran it through SNGPT/SNGWiz.

Say Button calls with 15% (33+,A8+,A4s+,KTs+) and the blinds call with 8% (66+,AJ+,ATs+) this is -0.26% EV. It is one of those strange bubble things where the chance that you lose your whole stack is much more -EV than doubling up/stealing the blinds is +EV.

I think your ranges for the blinds are too narrow, given their stack size I would sat SBs range is a bit wider then you mentioned - probably 44+, A9+, A8s+, and I would add to BB range probably A6+ and KQ as well as any other PP.

Button's range I think is too wide, true he is the big stack, and if you raise 3BB he may push over with a wide range, but calling a push I think his range is not as wide as you presented, I think top 10% of hands is more realistic

[taipan168]

[/quote]I think your ranges for the blinds are too narrow, given their stack size I would sat SBs range is a bit wider then you mentioned - probably 44+, A9+, A8s+, and I would add to BB range probably A6+ and KQ as well as any other PP.

Button's range I think is too wide, true he is the big stack, and if you raise 3BB he may push over with a wide range, but calling a push I think his range is not as wide as you presented, I think top 10% of hands is more realistic[/quote]
Using these ranges the push is exactly 0.0% EV. At a $5.50 buyin I would say that the ranges of all players (particularly the big stack) are potentially looser than this which would mean that the push becomes -EV.

I still think I raise this one to 500 rather than pushing or folding (rare exception to the 10x BB rule).