Pot Odds in a tournament

[pokerroomace]

How does pot odds work in a tournament?

In a cash game if you're getting paid 4-to-1 to hit the nuts and there's no more betting in the hand and the chance of you hitting the nuts is 35% - you should call. (and you can't win without hitting). But what do you do in a tournament in this same situation?

If you have a big stack and loosing the hand won't hurt you - then you should call.

But what if losing this hand means that you're out the tourney?
My question is very vague and there'd be a different answer in 100 different situations. But in general - how do pot odds work in a tournament?

Thanks

PS - my example is a mathematical model. I don't need people saying that would never happen, etc. etc. My example is how the situation is and you can't argue with it. It's the principle of the problem that matters here.

[swiggidy]

If you have a good stack it's always an easy call with odds.

If you are getting paid 4:1 for a call that's 2:1 to hit you make it every time (except a satellite bubble or maybe some other crazy payout).

Here's an article someone posted awhile ago.
http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/article/15093
Basically you can't afford to give up edges in a tourney.

[pokerroomace]

If you have a good stack it's always an easy call with odds.

If you are getting paid 4:1 for a call that's 2:1 to hit you make it every time (except a satellite bubble or maybe some other crazy payout).

Here's an article someone posted awhile ago.
http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/article/15093
Basically you can't afford to give up edges in a tourney.

ye thanks for the reply. i've read this a few times and I in fact read it in the past 3 days or so again.

but aokronology said that some like this: "you never have the odds to knock yourself out". i didn't quite understand what that meant - but i think it probably applies here.

also, at small stakes online MTTs with so many weak players, would you agree with Matt Matros's mathematical analysis?

also, have a look at one of my previous posts: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-45237.htm
THAC says that he agrees with me folding my aces. but im getting massive odds and I would at very, very least I have a 25% chance of winning this hand. i infact had a 50% chance of winning. so this goes against Matros's advice of giving up slight edges (here it's probably a big one). What do you think? [btw, i think i might have made the wrong decision in the aces hand, but maybe that's in hindsight]

thanks

[swiggidy]

but aokronology said that some like this: "you never have the odds to knock yourself out". i didn't quite understand what that meant - but i think it probably applies here.

I think he meant that you maybe getting 10:1 pot odds to call with the rest of your stack. But if you only have a 1% chance to win then don't call.

Your AA hand is different because it isn't pre-flop. With 5 players it's more likely that someone has 55 or the flush. If you knew you had a 51% chance to win the hand it's an easy call because you're getting better than 2:1 on your money, but you have good reason to think you are dominated. If you are getting even money with a 51% chance to win, maybe you should let that go.

I would still agree with Mike's math at a small stakes tourney. You could scale your "chance of winning over the competition" to come up with slightly different numbers, but you sill need to get lucky several times.

[drmcboy]

the relative badness of "small stakes online players" is made up for by their multitude.

pot odds = your friend.

[pokerroomace]

but aokronology said that some like this: "you never have the odds to knock yourself out". i didn't quite understand what that meant - but i think it probably applies here.

I think he meant that you maybe getting 10:1 pot odds to call with the rest of your stack. But if you only have a 1% chance to win then don't call.

Your AA hand is different because it isn't pre-flop. With 5 players it's more likely that someone has 55 or the flush. If you knew you had a 51% chance to win the hand it's an easy call because you're getting better than 2:1 on your money, but you have good reason to think you are dominated. If you are getting even money with a 51% chance to win, maybe you should let that go.

I would still agree with Mike's math at a small stakes tourney. You could scale your "chance of winning over the competition" to come up with slightly different numbers, but you sill need to get lucky several times.

OK thanks.
So you're saying if you have a 10% (and you know for sure that that is the situation) chance of winning but your being paid 10to1 that you should call? (in general)

[A10Chief]

I think this is why so many top players advocate raising draws. You don't want to be check/calling 25% of your stack when you flop four to the flush. In tournaments your stack is the most important thing, so you want to be always adding to it, not pissing it away chasing draws, even with odds.

[drmcboy]

not pissing it away chasing draws, even with odds

the good news is, you won't post anything dumber than this for a while.

[A10Chief]

LOL, I'm on a roll!!! But seriously, are there not times in tournaments when it's better to raise your flush draw or push it than to check/call it? Obviously not when the blinds are small, but later on.

[drmcboy]

any time you think there is a reasonable chance you will win the pot, you should typically raise with a FD. This is especially true if it may knock others out and 'buy' outs - kinda a limit concept but it applies here too.

Example - you have AhTh on the CO and raise 3x (call it 300). The button and both blinds call. The flop comes Qh8h2s.

Pot is 1200.

The SB leads out for half the pot. The BB calls.

pots is 2400, 600 to you.

Calling is clearly correct. You are drawing to the nuts and will hit one in five or so on the next card. Plus, your A may give you additional outs. (please note this is in no way pissing away chips. Read Theory of Poker. The idea that the blinds have something to do with it is incorrect.) Finally, you may get additional action if you hit your flush.

But raising is better. Suppose the hands are as follows
SB - KQ
BB - T9
Buttton -AJ
Here are the hand numbers:

Board: Qh 8h 2s 
Dead:  

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	36.7073 %  	35.73% 	00.98%      { AhTh }
Hand  2:	48.6585 %  	48.66% 	00.00%      { KsQd }
Hand  3:	08.2927 %  	07.93% 	00.37%      { Ts9h }
Hand  4:	06.3415 %  	05.73% 	00.61%      { AsJd }

But if you raise, the AJ will certainly fold, and the T9 probably will (if not, he is making a really bad call and you make money that way). There is even some chance you will win the pot, but even if that never happens...

Board: Qh 8h 2s 
Dead:  

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	46.4646 %  	46.46% 	00.00%      { AhTh }
Hand  2:	53.5354 %  	53.54% 	00.00%      { KsQd }

we pick up a bunch of equity in the pot. This happens mostly because our A wins us the pot more often.

Raising may give us a chance to see a free river card.

It also sets up a bluffing spot either on the turn or the river. This will probably not work against KQ, but if opp holds something like QT he may struggle to call two barrells (again, he may not even call one).

If KQ shoves, that is fine too, you can call knowing the pot is giving you a fine price to call whoever plays.

[A10Chief]

Great post, thanks.

[pokerroomace]

ye. great reply. i'm currently reading the theory of poker and its a great book.