Pocket 10s with OESD

[holdin2]

Not much action from Villian until this hand.

What's your flop move? This a good time to push back real hard with the good draw?

***** Hand History for Game 175190669 *****
$0.25/$0.50 NL Texas Hold'em - Sun, Oct 29, 05:20:22 2006
Table Taipei 101 1 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: h-d ($180.50)
Seat 2: Jester_00 ($50.00)
Seat 3: adobery ($42.25)
Seat 4: varkov ($51.60)
Seat 5: fbarfins ($8.00)
Seat 6: uaredeadlol ($80.95)
uaredeadlol posts small blind [$0.25]
h-d posts big blind [$0.50]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to adobery [ Tc Ts ]
Jester_00 calls [$0.50]
adobery raises [$2.00]
varkov raises [$6.00]
fbarfins folds
uaredeadlol folds
h-d folds
Jester_00 folds
adobery calls [$4.00]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qc Jc 9d ]
adobery checks
varkov bets [$9.25]
adobery ???

[nutsinho]

fooooooooooooold

[IowaSkinsFan]

fooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooold (I beat you)

[Lukie]

How good have you been at spiking K's/8's in similar spots? This is a crucial piece of information.

[holdin2]

So no one thinks continuing is a good idea.

So given the villian hasn't raised much up to this point (what I meant by not much action, sorry) can you not put him on AA/KK enough of the time to possible get a fold with a big reraise, and still catch your straight some of the time if he calls with JJ+. Not enough fold equity against AA/KK at 50NL? FH redraw for QQ/JJ not make it worth it?

Anyone who wants to get a little deeper with an explanation than FOLD, or HOW LUCKY ARE YOU, I'd appreciate it. I'm trying to improve and grasp some deeper stuff and need all the help I can get. I need to find some spots other than nut hands/cbets to show aggression & semi-bluff. Please tell me why this is terrible or if there's a time you'd ever play the hand here. Thanks.

[aislephive]

I don't think a push is bad if you think he ever folds AA/KK/AQ here, problem is that nobody down here will probably lay that hand down and metagame implications are minimal, I'd just fold here.

[Robert]

Against an unknown I fold in this spot. If opp has a wide 3-betting range I often call flop

[Fnord]

I call here against guys who don't follow through on the turn often/big enough.

edit: Nevermind, if it's a tight 3-bet it's a crying fold.

[IowaSkinsFan]

How good have you been at spiking K's/8's in similar spots? This is a crucial piece of information.

Lukie, your past few posts have been the most genius on FTR I have seen in awhile.

[Happy Jones]

Your out of position.
Your not getting good odds.
Your drawing to an obvious straight if you hit it.
Your drawing to a straight with a flush draw.
Your drawing to a second nut straight.
No reason to continue if your purely intending to draw.

[elipsesjeff]

He's also got the set outs and possible flush redraw and there's the slightest possibility that he is ahead. The LHE in me really wants me to see the turn card.

How good have you been at spiking K's/8's in similar spots? This is a crucial piece of information.

Lukie, your past few posts have been the most genius on FTR I have seen in awhile.

It's so true!!! I had the EXACT same hand tonight. I got the better of him and pulled a Lukie out of my ass. Before I made the call on the turn you've got to weigh the pot odds with the time you're ahead. The flop call is the easy one, its whether you call the turn bet.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($100)
Hero ($98.70)
MP ($96.10)
Button ($122.75)
SB ($118.10)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T, T.
Hero raises to $4, MP raises to $10, 3 folds, Hero calls $6.

Flop: ($21.50) J, 8, 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $25, Hero calls $25.

Turn: ($71.50) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $52, Hero calls $52.

River: ($175.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $10, MP calls $9.10 (All-In).

Final Pot: $194.60

I did some quick math in my head (while 8 tabling) in make the flop call, knowing pretty well I was probably up against AA or KK. I put myself at 10 outs and against AA I've got almost 37% equity. On the turn I've still got 23 if I'm behind and I "only" have to be ahead here 1/5 to make the turn call profitable. This is where reads come in.

But I think folding the flop in OP is pretty bad. Getting over 2-1 on a call on a likely 3-1 shot, you only have to get $10 implied odds to make it profitable and AA will pay that off if you hit the turn.