|
|
The pot is offering Hassan 1.96:1 odds, since there's effectively 815 in the pot and it costs him 415 to call. He needs to win about 34% of the time to break even, since 1/2.96 = 415/1230 = about 34%. This means he should definitely call if he thinks Halfrek could have absolutely anything (a truly random hand). If he thinks Halfrek is more conservative, and probably has two higher cards, the call becomes break-even or slightly negative. And if he thinks Halfrek probably has a pair, and that the pair is probably higher than 6, then the call will lose him money. Play around with different matchups in Pokerstove (http://www.pokerstove.com/) to get a feel for the odds.
72o is about 36% against a random hand. If you are sure your opponent is pushing any two cards, making a call like this one will be (very) slightly profitable in the long run.
It's important to know your opponents. In a $10 SNG, lots of your opponents will not push with any two cards. They'll let themselves get blinded down while they wait for a hand they really like. These calls are a lot worse against opponents like that.
As for taking coinflips:
In the high stakes game, the opponents are good. You may have to take small edges against them, since you can't be sure that they'll give you a chance to take huge edges against them, and if you never take any edges at all then you'll be blinded out. In the low stakes game, many of the opponents are bad. You can get away with passing up small edges, since you will probably get offered a huge edge sometime soon.
|