1 hand - Stars SNG $6.5 Turbo

[jimmy44]

Guys,

What do you do here? Do you push, call or fold and wait for a better spot?


PokerStars Game #6864468943: Tournament #34989989, $6.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2006/11/02 - 11:45:36 (ET)
Table '34989989 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 2: Hero (1365 in chips)
Seat 3: MURDERERMIKE (1650 in chips)
Seat 4: eegeoh (4010 in chips)
Seat 5: Blkcatjayjay (1320 in chips)
Seat 6: CMer67 (2060 in chips)
Seat 8: checkTriver (1510 in chips)
Seat 9: dam__st8 (1585 in chips)
dam__st8: posts small blind 25
jimmy44a: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [7h 7s]
MURDERERMIKE: folds
eegeoh: folds
Blkcatjayjay: folds
CMer67: folds
checkTriver: folds
dam__st8: raises 150 to 200
Hero: ????

Thanks!

[taipan168]

I tend to just fold this and wait for a better spot. Could be a steal but at the $6.50s if you push, many players will call you with crap like JT and you don't need to flip for your whole stack at this stage.

Fold > push > call IMO - you don't have implied odds to play for a set.

[Fortune 500]

Looks like a steal to me. I can see the argument for simply folding.

I however, tend to call here, based on the fact that I have position post flop, and don't even need to hit a set to take it down.

I certainly wouldn't raise here unless I was stone cold certain it was a steal. Your stack is too deep to get pot committed with 7s.

It' s a tricky spot really, but I lean towards calling and playing it post flop.

leak?

[taipan168]

I don't think calling is terrible, agreed that Hero has position postflop but I don't like calling off 15% of my stack and folding the flop most times unless I hit a set or the flop comes all undercards.

[johnny_fish]

Pushing seems best imo. You're way ahead of his range and there's enough FE.

[WildBobAA]

Shovage

[vqc]

i think i playued the exact same hand yesterday and shoved.

[Lokedog]

i fold this, it's still early w/ blinds at 25/50, and it's a $6.50 turbo...i dont want to flip yet this early w/ that many bad players at the turbo's right now(from my experience these past few weeks)

[Pants_101]

I don't think calling is terrible, agreed that Hero has position postflop but I don't like calling off 15% of my stack and folding the flop most times unless I hit a set or the flop comes all undercards.

Would you not play with 1 overcard against a single opponnent? Or even 2 depending what they are?

[FlyingSaucy]

I like a fold here, depending on reads. Has he been stealing a lot of your blinds? If not, the fold is even easier.

Why risk it all now when there are plenty more hands to come that would be a much more clear cut situation for you? I also think calling is not worth it here, hoping to out manouver someone with a missed mid pocket pair is not always a great idea when you don't have a ton of stack left to work with.

[ChrisTheFish]

GAMMMMBOLLL, FTW.

[drmcboy]

shove

It' s a tricky spot really, but I lean towards calling and playing it post flop.

leak?

yes, unless opp never c bets. Also pot may go multiway which is bad.

[clairvoyant]

I wouldnt push. You still have an M of about 18, theres no rush yet.

A fold is probably in order but I wouldn't totally rule out a call depending on how he plays.

[vqc]

I wouldnt push. You still have an M of about 18, theres no rush yet.

A fold is probably in order but I wouldn't totally rule out a call depending on how he plays.

you cite M as a reason for not shoving, yet u seem to ignore it when it comes to calling.

[bode]

i push this. you have the best hand and plenty of FE still.

[taipan168]

I'm going against the grain here but at a $6.50 turbo I would tend NOT to push this.

Against a better player at the $16s or above I would push from the BB against a likely SB vs BB steal but against the average $6.50 donk you will have limited FE and will get called very often by hands that you're flipping against (I'm thinking crap like KT, QJ, even SCs like T9). Sure, Ax and smaller PPs are in this range but there are so many hands that you're flipping against that a $6.50 player just won't fold.

If my trial period on SNG Wiz hadn't run out I could run this with some ranges which might prove me wrong...

[taipan168]

OK, I'll run some manual ICM on this with some assuming that opp open raises with 30% (22+,A2+,K8o+,K4s+,QTo+,Q9s+,JTs) and calls your push with 25% (22+,A2+,KTo+,K8s+,QTs+).

- If Hero folds he has 1315 chips worth 10.54% of the prize pool
- If Hero pushes, 16% of the time opp will fold and Hero will have 1565 chips worth 12.32% of the prize pool
- If Hero pushes, 84% of the time opp will call - Hero wins 56% of the time against opp's range giving him 2730 chips worth 19.94% of the prize pool 44% of the time he will be out.

OK, running through the numbers the equity of pushing is 11.35% so it is better to push, I stand corrected