gutshot?

[pgil]

I think that I played this fairly well, but would like some feedback on it. especially the lines of thought used during the hand. I think I calculated my implied odds correctly here, but would appreciate someone checking that for me as well.

I have been playing pretty tight, but have recently had a run in with the villain in this hand. I called him pf, then called his obvious c-bet on a K-high board, we both checked the turn, and then he called my 1/2 pot river bet with 4th pair, when I had 5th pair. not well played really by me, but it sets up the hand in question.

villain has been raising a little too much for my liking, and has shown a willingness to min raise on flush draws (has done it twice in about 45 minutes).

~110 BB effective stacks, 50NL.

I don't have the hh, but the relevant info is 99% correct.

Villain is button, raises to 1.75 (standard thanks to the 'bet pot' button)
I call from the BB w/ - pot = 3.75

flop

I lead for 2.50 thinking he hasn't hit this, and he minraises me, I call. He could have the flush draw, nothing, or a 2pr/set type of hand. I figure he most likely has a flush draw, and I am not that far behind (perhaps even ahead) if he does, but I don't want to build a huge pot w/ an ace high and a gutshot. The J should raise more to chase me out, and I plan on checking any turn to him to see how much he bets.

pot = 13.75

turn blank

I check, he bets 4, I call based on implied odds. I figure a flush draw should check behind as I have shown to him that I am willing to call him down with crap, and could possibly be setting up a C-R. I put him on a set/2pr, with the set being most likely. This gives me 4 outs, the 3 non-diamond ones being the big ones, with him thinking I may be chasing the flush or could have some sort of 1 pair hand.

pot = 21.75

river bingo

I check, he bets 7, I raise to 21, and he pushes over. He shows his 22 and I take the pot.

[gabe]

if someone is raising alot of hands, that means they are more likely to have nothing when you are in a pot with them. that means you dont have implied odds. you got lucky they happened to have a set.

[pgil]

you don't think he has a hand after the "please don't fold" turn bet?

If not, please correct my line of thinking throughout the hand, I would like to learn where I have gone astray in my analysis.

[Ravageur]

Yeah what gabe said. You and villain both played this bad. Check/call the flop if you think you're ahead and lead the turn if you think you still have the best hand I guess.

Also I don't really like defending my blind with these type of hands as they seem to only get you in trouble than good.

[benny999]

I was always a little bit fuzzy on implied odds math, but I don't think you had very high implied odds with only an 8%ish chance with one card left to make ur hand.

Can someone tell me if this is a way to calculate the amount to win on the river to make calling on the turn profitable?

take $4 and divide by .08 to get 50.
Then subtract the 21.75 turn pot from 50, and you get about $28 that villain needs to put in on the river.

[benny999]

you don't think he has a hand after the "please don't fold" turn bet?

overall it's probably a sucker-u-in bet, but u can't be totally sure....it could also be a "where am I at? please raise so I know to fold" bet. or even a ridiculous semi bluff.

[ThelVlaster]

I was always a little bit fuzzy on implied odds math, but I don't think you had very high implied odds with only an 8%ish chance with one card left to make ur hand.

Can someone tell me if this is a way to calculate the amount to win on the river to make calling on the turn profitable?

take $4 and divide by .08 to get 50.
Then subtract the 21.75 turn pot from 50, and you get about $28 that villain needs to put in on the river.

Heres my makeshift calculations:
Stack sizes start at $55 - 1.75 - 5 = $48.25 before the turn action.
The pot is $25.75 with his $4 bet, leaving him with 44.25 behind.

If he has a set/2pr and you hit a non diamond 3 (On the turn chance to hit: 3/46=0.0652),
and you win his whole stack + pot =$70 (I don't know if the $4 you put in on the turn should be added here or not, I left it out.)
Expected value = 0.0652 * 70 = +$4.57

If you hit a diamond 3 (1/46 =0.0217), lets assume you win the pot, plus a 1/2 pot sized bet on the river. The pot would be $29.75 + called river bet of 15 =$44.75
Expected value = 0.0217 * 44.75 = +$0.97

If you brick on the river you only lose $4.

Total EV = 4.57 + .97 - 4 =+$1.54

But there are a lot of assumptions there. You can see how your EV would fall drastically if he only stacks off 85% of the time, or he folds the 3d river, etc.

I really like your analysis to his holdings, during the hand - the question being at the time of the hand, did you factor all that in, or just hope that this move was +ev.

[gabe]

fwiw, i like the flop bet

[johnny_fish]

Would you c/f or bluff a river?

[pgil]

i would c/f a diamond river about 85-90% of the time here as I don't think he's letting go of his hand often enough to warrant a bet any more than that.