Push AT 4Handed $16 Turbo

[Da GOAT]

Whats your move? no using SNGPT, just gut.

Horn Hi aces is a calling station postflop .big draw chaser
bosoxfan is a very tight mofo, never opens up SH
other guy i dunno but dont think much out of line but say average.

PokerStars Game #6930784405: Tournament #35363814, $15+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2006/11/07 - 15:14:34 (ET)
Table '35363814 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 2: bosoxfan55 (1620 in chips)
Seat 4: rc2862 (5220 in chips)
Seat 8: CelticUabhar (1690 in chips)
Seat 9: horn hi aces (4970 in chips)
bosoxfan55: posts small blind 100
rc2862: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CelticUabhar [Ad Ts]
CelticUabhar: ??????????????????

[drmcboy]

if pushing here is wrong, I don't want to be right.

on some tables I could see raising 2.5x instead if you think they will check fold a lot of flops, but you open up for the stop n go.

[baron_greenback]

Personally, I'd raise to about 600. The most likely caller out of those players (based on your reads) is the one who will bust you. My gut instinct would be to try to take it down pre-flop, but also leave myself a get-out clause.

In saying that, chances are I'd push any flop if my pre-flop bet was called

[Da GOAT]

if pushing here is wrong, I don't want to be right.

on some tables I could see raising 2.5x instead if you think they will check fold a lot of flops, but you open up for the stop n go.

very rare to see stop and go's at this lvl. they (average players) dont seem to have the balls to push air if they are OOP against PFR. they may may minbet or the like as a cheeky try but rare proper stop n go.

hmm just raising!! calling station prob wont push over even with a better hand, tighty would with a good hand so i could avoid him by raising and other player could play it safe to. its possibly a decent alternative to not pushing as could be best hand(tho i should push best hand technically)

[WildBobAA]

I don't think this is even worth discussing. It's such a super-standard push.

[taipan168]

I've been in this sort of situation before and in the game I pushed this without a second thought but afterwards I ran it through SNGPT and was surprised by the result. I think the reason it is -EV has to do with the following:

- There are two big stacks so doubling up at this point much less than doubles your share of the prize pool. Plus the two big stacks can call you pretty much with impunity and still have a very nice stack to work with
- Because it's the bubble and everybody else pretty much has you covered, if you lose you are out
- Of the hands they will call with, there aren't that many that you dominate (A7-A9 maybe), a whole lot that you're flipping against or dominated by and a few that you're only a 60/40 favourite (KQ).
- Because you're UTG, you have 3 players to go through before you've got the blinds
- With 8x BB you're not yet totally desperate. My guess is that if you had 3-400 less chips this would become +EV.

[johnny_fish]

Raising more than 30% of your stack and fold to a raise generally sucks. Shove it.

[johnny_fish]

I don't think this is even worth discussing. It's such a super-standard push.

I don't think it's that standard. I'd fold A8o- here without thinking twice for instance.

Add antes and it's a lot closer to standard.

[drmcboy]

you suck for assuming I am folding to a raise. I am hoping to improve the 'calling' range by raising rather than open push. Like I said, some tables yes, some no.

[johnny_fish]

you suck for assuming I am folding to a raise. I am hoping to improve the 'calling' range by raising rather than open push. Like I said, some tables yes, some no.

Interesting.. Do you shove every flop if they just call preflop?

[Da GOAT]

I wasnt amazed at what SNGPT told me but i wanted to check it but i did think it was +EV.

SNGPT tells me with my estimates of opp's range that.

calling station-44+,A7s+,A9o+,KQs+,KQo+(im not going lower on the aces on bubble)
Tighty Whitey-TT+,AJs+,AJo(safe to incl AJ)
Other guy-44+,A7s+,A9o+,KQs(average safe bet range)

SNGPT says -0.1 ( very slight )

With 0 edge: Push hands: 77+,AJo+,ATs+ (8%)

WIth 0.5 edge: Push hands: 99+,AQ+ (5%) still a bit too tight but ill take a bit less edge then.

DO you still like the push??

OR

Pass, remember when we are on btn we have a tight ass in BB.

[taipan168]

I remember when I was in my very similar situation the answer was to push ATs but fold ATo.

[drmcboy]

Interesting.. Do you shove every flop if they just call preflop?

Most flops, hopefully I have read on caller's likehood to check a hand. pass on monotone 567 flop you don't have any off, or at least take a free card.