A Hand from the Cherokee Poker Classic

[JeffreyGB]

Today I played in the $330 Pot Limit event at the Cherokee Poker Classic. I'd like opinions on a hand.

A little background about the situation I was in:
There were 19/108 players left. My table was 7 handed; the other two were 6 handed. The average stack was about 23k. I had 18.5k. My table was very aggressive (with the chipleader raising at least 50% of his hands and calling most raises from others as an attempt to take the pot away postflop), as we had three of the tournament chipleaders and only one severely short stack. Roughly, the table was laid out as follows:

Me: 18.5k
Shorty: 9k
Aggro: 35k
Laggy Big Stack: 85k
Semi-tight big stack (had been laggy but sucked out after getting caught and subsequently
switched gears): 55k
ABC player: 40k
Semi-agg player: 21k

Blinds were 800/1600. I was in the SB, and shorty was in the BB. It folded around to the semi-agg on the button, who raised the pot (5600...standard raise amount). I looked down at AJo. Obviously my first thought was that I was huge against his range and that a reraise was a decent choice. With 25% of his stack in, I wasn't sure that he'd fold getting 2-1 (as he obviously would be given that my reraise would be a pot-sized reraise). I thought that I stood a better chance of folding hands I was behind if I pulled a stop-n-go (and that if I hit, I could let him c-bet to get the chips in). Further, I didn't think the big blind posed much of a threat, as I'm obviously calling if he comes in. Ultimately, that's what I decided to do - call the 5600, leaving 13k behind to push the flop.

I'd like to hear thoughts on this play.

[chardrian]

I agree with your thought process, and with your chipstack it is a great time for a stop and go.

I also see nothing wrong with just pushing preflop tho (or betting the pot which in essence was a push for both of you) since his raise looks like such a standard blind steal.

[Phantaroth]

I think what you did is fine, although I'd opt to bet the pot before the flop...

If you just call and he misses the flop, your most likely taking the pot. If you call and he hits, your out. If you push and he is losing he will still prolly call with a lot of hands that are losing, and if he has absolute rags he might just let it go putting you up against a short stack who will prolly call with a bad hand just because of stacks...

I think playing it preflop is where the value is for this situation... but im open to anyone who explains differently!

[drmcboy]

I don't get it - you're way ahead of his range, he is probably calling...

OK, maybe every once in a while it comes 762 and you fold out AK, but how many times are you letting him catch a pair?

just push.

[zenbitz]

OK, maybe every once in a while it comes 762 and you fold out AK, but how many times are you letting him catch a pair?

Uh, roughly 30% of the time? The same amount of time he catches a pair on the flop if he's all/in?

You also have to consider (in addition to chance he folds AQ/AK on a blank flop)

If villain has an unpaired hand worse than AJ - is he more or less likely to call pre-flop or on a flop you both miss?
If villian has a pair <J, what are the odds he folds on the flop if you catch?

[JeffreyGB]

OK, maybe every once in a while it comes 762 and you fold out AK, but how many times are you letting him catch a pair?

Uh, roughly 30% of the time? The same amount of time he catches a pair on the flop if he's all/in?

Exactly. Plus a portion of the time he catches, I also catch.

If villain has an unpaired hand worse than AJ - is he more or less likely to call pre-flop or on a flop you both miss?
If villian has a pair <J, what are the odds he folds on the flop if you catch?

Both of these are exactly why I made the play. I'll take a flip with my stack, but I'd rather make it better than a flip if I can. The FE I have postflop is huge! Plus if I hit, I can check it to him, at which point I'm certain (given the tendencies of this player) that we end up all-in with me as a favorite every time except when he has me dominated (in which case I'm losing when I push preflop anyway).

[drmcboy]

You have some FE when he misses. Why is that good? He would have called pre flop with A9 but you just lost those chips because you slowplayed AJ. Are you saying he's super loose pre flop then goes tight on the flop? I guess I don't really get the read. You say you have huge FE on the flop, but this guy does not seem like he is going to be laying down many pairs on a Q63 board.

If villain has an unpaired hand worse than AJ - is he more or less likely to call pre-flop or on a flop you both miss?
If villian has a pair <J, what are the odds he folds on the flop if you catch?

This is my point. Based on loose read, the answer to the first one seems to be close to 100 %

the chipleader raising at least 50% of his hands and calling most raises from others

I could see playing this way if you both had big stacks and you were trying to avoid playing a big pot where, because opp is playing so many hands you have no way of knowing where you are at. But you NEED to double.

[chardrian]

Maybe I am missing something here, but I thought the question basically was - when you are in a situation where you need to double up but you also have enough of a stack that you scare other players by going all-in and you get a hand that you know you are going to take all the way to the river OOP no matter what, but you are not 100% positive that your hand is better than your opp's is it better to just push preflop or use the stop n' go?

I like the stop'ngo here. If the flop hits you (1/3 of the time) then you are fine). If it doesn't hit you and doesn't hit him (another 1/3 of the time) then you will more often than not push him out post flop with your push. And if it hits him and not you (1/3 of the time), oh well - you were going to push anyways.

If you just push preflop, you are counting on him having AT or worse for you to be in great shape - otherwise, you are racing.

The stop'n'go just gives you more opportunities to push a worse hand off.

[drmcboy]

The stop'n'go just gives you more opportunities to push a worse hand off.

I assume this is a typo, but it is my point exactly. Why do you want to push off a worse hand?

I stop and go when I think it is usually:
a race or
I'm behind and
I am rarely way ahead
and there is some chance my opp will fold flop even if I miss.

If there is a good chance you are ahead pre flop (check) and opp is likely to fold flop if we are ahead and he misses (again, check) you have to question the stop and go.

Can someone give me a hand you would push here rather than Stop and Go? Do you push AK? 88?

Those 1/3's do not add up. What if we both hit?

The key I think everyone is ignoring is the HUGE range opp has. 50% of hands is every A and many Jx hands - probably J8+? This is not normal and calls for non standard thinking.

[chardrian]

It was a typo. Meant to say you can push a better hand off.

I think the key you are overlooking is that the opp in this case was NOT the laggy bigstack. Instead it was the semi-agg player with a stack almost equal to ours.

So here we don't know whether or not we are ahead preflop, but we do think that opp will fold to a missed flop. So it's a perfect time for a stop n' go.

[drmcboy]

ha

please ignore all my posts. Stop n Go is standard here. I do like my reasons for not SnGing the lag.

[JeffreyGB]

The key I think everyone is ignoring is the HUGE range opp has. 50% of hands is every A and many Jx hands - probably J8+? This is not normal and calls for non standard thinking.

That may be part of the disagreement here...Chipleader was raising 50% of his hands. Chipleader was not involved in this hand; I was merely stating the condition of the table for other hands. If chipleader were playing here, I push. While the button player's range is wide, it's not nearly that wide.

[zenbitz]

chard math:
1/9th you both hit
2/9th you hit he miss
2/9th he hit you miss
4/9th you both miss

This is assuming unpaired cards and ignoring draws (which would be like a partial hit). If he has a pocket pair, then I think there is no difference between a push PF and Stop and Go (since you won't actually KNOW, hence you will have to push every flop)

[JeffreyGB]

This is assuming unpaired cards and ignoring draws (which would be like a partial hit). If he has a pocket pair, then I think there is no difference between a push PF and Stop and Go (since you won't actually KNOW, hence you will have to push every flop)

Not true because there are a lot of flops that don't hit you that a paired hand is going to have trouble calling on. Can 66 really call a push on a QT8 flop? I think this is a lot of where your FE from a stop-and-go comes from.

[chardrian]

Meh - discount my math. I was speaking generally. The beauty of the stop'n'go is that we almost never hit flops - this play gives you a perfect opportunity to exploit that.

P.s. I think timing with the stop'n'go is really important also. One phase of my game that is getting better is sensing when people are pulling a stop'n'go on me and making really good calls. E.g. last night in the 25/50 blind level of a tourney on Stars, I open-raised from the button with TT and Elky reraised me preflop from the SB to 450 when we both had about 1500 in chips. I smooth called to see how he would play. The flop came J hi and Elky instapushed. I thought for a while and put him on a hand like AQ, AK, or a wide range of pairs (some lower some higher). But I didn't see him pushing higher pairs there as he would want to maximize. So I ended up calling and he showed AQ. If he had taken more time and made a standard raise (or even checked) representing that he really did have QQ+, I would have had a much tougher call.

[IowaSkinsFan]

So what happened? lol.

[JeffreyGB]

So what happened? lol.

BB pushed, and we both called. The flop came AQ4. Given the big pot, I figured I'd just get it in and eliminate BB. I pushed for 10k into 25k or so. He called. When the cards were flipped, BU had Q7 and BB had JJ. Turn 8. River 7.