I think this push was wrong

[Pants_101]

So I bubbled again, mainly as a result of this hand I guess. SNG says its +ev if all 3 opps are fairly tight BUT with the shortstack having put 1/3 his chips in the blind he may call with any 2 which makes the push -ev. On the other hand pounding on the short stack must be good right? Any one have any insight?

PokerStars (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
PokerStars Game #6930184653: Tournament #35359967, $6.00+$0.50 Hold'em
No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2006/11/07 - 14:15:06 (ET)
Table '35359967 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 3: theluck76 (3425 in chips)
Seat 4: purplebf4 (1230 in chips)
Seat 7: Pantz_101 (3070 in chips)
Seat 9: joekow1 (5775 in chips)
theluck76: posts the ante 25
purplebf4: posts the ante 25
Pantz_101: posts the ante 25
joekow1: posts the ante 25
theluck76: posts small blind 200
purplebf4: posts big blind 400

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 3, 3. SB posts a blind of 25. Hero posts a blind of 25. Button posts a blind of 25.
Hero (poster) raises 2645 to 3045 and is all-in, 2 folds, BB calls 805 (All-In).

Flop: K, Q, T (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot:

purplebf4: shows [Qc 9c] (a pair of Queens)
Pantz_101: shows [3d 3h] (a pair of Threes)
purplebf4 collected 2710 from pot

[Da GOAT]

i fold here since shorty HAS to call with near ATC.

for reasons you mentioned ie SNGPT says its bad then its bad. you are correct the other stacks should be quiet tight here.

[Pants_101]

Cheers Goat, I just can't get ITM at the moment, my pushes keep running into better cards. Plus I still make mistakes like this being too aggressive on the bubble. One thing that might help is if someone could come up with a detailed write up on calling pushes

[drmcboy]

4 outcomes:

1) Shortie has a 2 or 3 and calls
2) You get called by someone else
3) you get called by shortie and he doesn't have a 2 or 3
4) you get folds all around

and then maybe

5) you get called twice - but this is unlikely. Clearly this is very bad. I think you can ignore this one, since it either requires two big hands or a total moron shortie.

which do you think are the most likely, how many chips do you win in each?

[TLR]

Fold 33 from UTG, you are called by better or flipping hands

[Da GOAT]

One thing that might help is if someone could come up with a detailed write up on calling pushes

lol i should be able to get on it just before xmas

its not discussed much but i wanna look into it though i know its not that complex. maybe a load of hands been broken down and messed with but dunno yet

[johnny_fish]

This is +EV if shortie calls with 40% and the other two stacks with AT+/77+ (60%/5%/5% works too). They're calling wider than this so fold.

[Pants_101]

4 outcomes:

1) Shortie has a 2 or 3 and calls
2) You get called by someone else
3) you get called by shortie and he doesn't have a 2 or 3
4) you get folds all around

and then maybe

5) you get called twice - but this is unlikely. Clearly this is very bad. I think you can ignore this one, since it either requires two big hands or a total moron shortie.

which do you think are the most likely, how many chips do you win in each?

Cool the dog in the hat has set a quiz, but it's a hard one. Still I'll have a go.

I thought the most likely outcome was 4) Folds all around. However I now think that 3) is most likely, shorty calls without a 2 or 3 in his hand.
So 3, 4, 1, 2

Working out how many chips I win for each possibility is a bit beyond me I fear. Looking at it in simple terms in case 1) he has basically 3 outs so I should win about 85% of the time(?) It's better if he has a 3 than a 2. So I win 1505 chips 85% and lose 1230 15% of the time.

For 2) Getting called by someone else this would not be good. If he has a pair it will be higher than mine so he's about 80% to win. If he doesn't he will have 2 cards higher than mine which is about 50% over my 3's I think.
I don't know how to calculate this properly but it's clearly a losing proposition if I'm called.

For 3) shorty probaly calls with 2 higher cards making us about 50% Occasionally he has a pair making him 80%. Again this is a loser long term I think.

4) Everyone folds - at last an easy one, I pick up 700 chips.

Clearly maths is not my strong point. If shorty always calls I shouldn't make this play. If shorty is mistakenly playing tight I think this is a reasonable play although still risky. Or am I blithering?

[MuddyWicket]

I've been having trouble in this area as well, but I think I am turning the corner. I used to never go allin thinking it is bad poker, but since reading this site it makes sense, clearly, but I then had the problem you might be having and that is pushing too much, too frequently and too loosely. Which, in a way, is not a bad thing if you are happy to pay to learn and, by accepting that, you don't beat yourself up about it. I am getting better, slowly!

I found this, set the options to pure randomn and fire away.

http://www.pregopoker.com

bubble teacher. Free to use 50 hands per month. I think it is well known about (ish). I would love to hear what other people think about this software. Cheaper way of learning imo.

[Pants_101]

Yeah I'm pushing too much, and probably not calling enough although it's hard to tell as you never see the cards. Almost every guide I've read says play aggressive on the bubble, everyone is tight trying to make the money, but it's not true! Or perhaps it works if you have the stack to make raises and aren't forced into all in bets. Or maybe my idea of aggressive play is a bit far towards maniac Anyway I have faith that FTR will educate me and help me educate myself.

PS you in Brighton mud? I lived there for 3 years, loved it!

[Da GOAT]

Yeah I'm pushing too much, and probably not calling enough although it's hard to tell as you never see the cards. Almost every guide I've read says play aggressive on the bubble, everyone is tight trying to make the money, but it's not true! Or perhaps it works if you have the stack to make raises and aren't forced into all in bets. Or maybe my idea of aggressive play is a bit far towards maniac Anyway I have faith that FTR will educate me and help me educate myself.

PS you in Brighton mud? I lived there for 3 years, loved it!

i found as i improve, and discussing with tai, im willinging to make -EV push mistakes (not knowing at the time) and learn. i will push even the maybe boarder line one's that could even be slightly -EV to my gut in order to learn. plus no longer (on average) think i must make it ITM, id rather bust out than spend time struggling with a crap stack both on bubble and ITM as a likely 3rd place finisher.

[Pants_101]

i found as i improve, and discussing with tai, im willinging to make -EV push mistakes (not knowing at the time) and learn. i will push even the maybe boarder line one's that could even be slightly -EV to my gut in order to learn. plus no longer (on average) think i must make it ITM, id rather bust out than spend time struggling with a crap stack both on bubble and ITM as a likely 3rd place finisher.

Time equating to money? I hadn't thought of it like that but if I were multitabling and purely playing for profit that would make sense. I play to win perhaps as a default play style, being the small stack is difficult as you need a push to be called and you need to win and the others have the luxury of picking their moment. Still I do get aggreived when I bubble, I did it twice last night. I was in an aggressive and stubborn mood which is perhaps not the best mindset to play turbos, sometimes folding is good I still haven't played 150 sng's so I don't have a good idea of what is just variance and what is bad play.

[taipan168]

i found as i improve, and discussing with tai, im willinging to make -EV push mistakes (not knowing at the time) and learn. i will push even the maybe boarder line one's that could even be slightly -EV to my gut in order to learn. plus no longer (on average) think i must make it ITM, id rather bust out than spend time struggling with a crap stack both on bubble and ITM as a likely 3rd place finisher.

My leak is to be too much the other way, missing some +EV pushes and ending up very short stacked either 4 or 3 handed.

I have roughly equal 1st, 2nd and 3rd places whilst Goat has many more 1sts than 2nds and 3rds.

[taipan168]

I found this, set the options to pure randomn and fire away.

http://www.pregopoker.com

bubble teacher. Free to use 50 hands per month. I think it is well known about (ish). I would love to hear what other people think about this software. Cheaper way of learning imo.

Yes, this is good. I use my 50 hands/month, it has helped me to find some pretty counterintuitive pushes/calls that I otherwise would have missed.

[MuddyWicket]

Totally Goat. I'm all for that. Just one win is worth 3.8 thirds by the time you include the entry fees for them. (at $5 1st=17 profit, 2nd = 8 & 3rd = 4.5)

Yep, I'm near Brighton in Henfield, been near here most of my life on the sunny south coast!