ROI math question regarding Bodog beginner SNGs

[ulTOMate]

Do any of you math guys know how expected ROI may be affected for Bodog's beginner SNGs that pay top 5 (30/25/20/15/10%) vs. the normal top 3 (50/30/20%) paying SNGs? I can't figure out if the pay structure is a benefit or if the fact that the money is more spread out means you should expect a lower return in the long run. Is there any mathematical basis that favors one over the other? Bodog's structure surely reduces variance, but does that correlate to a better expected return? I don't know, maybe I'm looking at it the wrong way, just wondering if anyone had any thoughts. Thanks

[johnny_fish]

The edge in Sng's comes primarily from adjusting to the bubble effect. In the Bodog structure this effect is smaller so I'd expect your edge (expected roi) to be smaller too.

[swiggidy]

If you finish in 1st more than 1/10 times you will have a lower ROI%. If you finished at every position (1st, 2nd, ..., 1oth) 10% of the time your eV would be exactly the same. If you get first in a normal SnG you win 50%, in the begineer you win 30% so you need to make up this 20%. You would have to have 2x finish in 5th to make that up.

One thing to keep in mind: the stuff about ICM and gap at the bubble is no longer significant. Since the payout is a smooth transistion you can play MTT tourney strategy (i.e. gambling where winning gives you a strong chance to finish at the top, but a possibility of getting knocked out in 6th is OK)

[nickthefool]

I'd imagine that if you were a winning player at normal SnGs, these ones would give you a worse ROI, but lower variance.

However this probably would reduce the amount of time you go on tilt, so it may make you play better and compensate. But i'd say if you're a winning player a top 3 payout SnGs, then you would get a worse ROI at 5 payout ones. I have no experience of them though, that's just what i'd assume.

[bigspenda73]

Call me crazy, but this sounds like the best use of SPAM I have ever read on FTR. Maybe alarms went off b/c it was their first post, or the fact that I have never read a more well written first post, or the fact that it is a glowing advertisement for Bodog, either way, just seemed fishy to me.

[ulTOMate]

ha ha, not SPAM, and you may or may not be crazy

fwiw, I've been a long time reader of these forums and appreciate all the info, opinions, and advice that can be found here, just never chose to post before, and I have no connection with Bodog other than I like to play there

anyway, I was just curious to hear poeple's thoughts because I have been making some decent money (for me) at the beginner SNGs, but when I try to apply my results to a top 3 pay structure, the profit comes out to be much less (a lot of 4th and 5th place finishes)

I don't know if it makes sense to compare them directly because the bubble comes at different times, like people have mentioned. I can see how a 'good' player could do better in a top 3 pay structure, I guess I'm not there yet. All I know is that I've had 20% ROI over 1000 $4.40 beginner SNGs with very little variance (stress). I guess these games favor the 'average' player more than the 'good'.

[bigspenda73]

OK, my apologies for any offense