Weak play?

[LordVTR]

Trying to get my head around the odds here! On reflection, I think I should have called this push because the number of outs to hit the straight and the size of the pot (and my stack size?) would have justified it. I would appreciate any comments on this play as at the time, I wasnt too sure so took the safe option and folded.

As I understand it, I had 8 possible outs to make it and 2 attempts on turn and river so roughly 16 chances out of 47 card, approx 34%? The call would cost 970 chips making the pot total 2940, so a bet of approx 29% of the pot which would justify the call? Would be grateful if someone could confirm or correct my calculations here!!

I put villain on AJ, A 10, J 10 or 55 or a bluff. Unlikely to be AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 10 10 or AK as he only called pre flop raise and had shown aggression pre flop before with good cards.


***** Hand History for Game 5453995609 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $11 Buy-in Trny: 30469106 Level: 3 Blinds(50/100) - Wednesday, November 22, 16:32:38 ET 2006
Table Table 126495 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 4: ( $200 )
Seat 5: ( $2595 )
Seat 1: Hero( $4580 )
Seat 6: ( $3155 )
Seat 2: Villain ( $1470 )
Trny: 30469106 Level: 3
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Qs Kd ]

Hero raises [150]
Villain calls [100]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jc, Td, 5s ]
Hero bets [300]
Villain is all-In [1270]
Your time bank will be activated in 5 secs. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
Hero will be using his time bank for this hand.
Hero folds
Villain does not show cards.
Villain wins 1970 chips

[taipan168]

Would it be helpful if I talked you through how to do this analysis yourself?

(BTW, don't minraise. You should have made it 300 to go here).

[LordVTR]

taipan168 wrote

Would it be helpful if I talked you through how to do this analysis yourself?

(BTW, don't minraise. You should have made it 300 to go here).

Taipain, that would be very helpful indeed and very much appreciated!!

Oddly I usually do raise at least 3-4BB pre flop but for some reason I must have just clicked the raise button on this hand. I shall write it out 100 times.......I must not min raise under any circumstances

[taipan168]

OK, this is how you do it. Let me know if you have any queries.

1. Use the ICM calculator (http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/ICM.html) to work out your % of the prize pool under the following three scenarios:
- You fold
- You call and win
- You call and lose

2. Use Excel to figure out what % of the time you need to win to break even (if you're good with equations you can use algebra, I cheat and use goal seek).

3. Figure out a likely range for Villain and input that into Pokerstove against your hand to see whether you have sufficient % to win to make the call +EV.

If you need an example, take a look at this post

[givememyleg]

I'd rather c/r rather than bet/fold.

[ShowMeAtlas]

2. Use Excel to figure out what % of the time you need to win to break even (if you're good with equations you can use algebra, I cheat and use goal seek).

What's wrong with using goal seek? Or are you using goal seek for some crappy little equations?

[taipan168]

2. Use Excel to figure out what % of the time you need to win to break even (if you're good with equations you can use algebra, I cheat and use goal seek).

What's wrong with using goal seek? Or are you using goal seek for some crappy little equations?

Nothing's wrong with goal seek, I love it and use it all the time in my job because it's been too long since I did all this algebra shit at school!

[gingerwizard]

2. Use Excel to figure out what % of the time you need to win to break even (if you're good with equations you can use algebra, I cheat and use goal seek).

What's wrong with using goal seek? Or are you using goal seek for some crappy little equations?

There is a program for solving simple algebraic equations???!!!

WTF!