Flush draw on bubble

[andr3w321]

$16 turbo on stars. Take note of stack sizes, we're all about equal. Whats your move/plan for the rest of this hand?

PokerStars Game #7170552847: Tournament #36654375, $15+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2006/11/25 - 14:57:40 (ET)
Table '36654375 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: KKB1965 (3170 in chips)
Seat 2: fold4$ (3540 in chips)
Seat 5: ChuChuWaWa (3745 in chips)
Seat 9: andr3w321 (3045 in chips)
KKB1965: posts small blind 100
fold4$: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to andr3w321 [:As: ]
ChuChuWaWa: folds
andr3w321: raises 400 to 600
KKB1965: folds
fold4$ said, "yes it is"
fold4$: calls 400
*** FLOP *** [:Qs: :Td:]
fold4$: checks
KKB1965 said, "I cant get a card"
andr3w321...

[taipan168]

C-bet 800 on the flop.

[andr3w321]

Are you then folding to a push? What if he calls and you miss on turn? Are you calling a bet by him?

[taipan168]

Are you then folding to a push? What if he calls and you miss on turn? Are you calling a bet by him?

Yeah, on the bubble with a reasonable stack I think I'm folding to a push although this needs some ICM analysis which I'll do later. The other alternative would be to check behind to see if we can hit the flush but I think I prefer leading.

If he just flat calls and leads the turn, I'll call with odds.

[taipan168]

OK, say you lead for 800 and opp pushes over.
- If you fold, you have 1645 chips worth 15.23% of the prize pool
- If you call and win, you have 6190 chips worth 36.48% of the prize pool
- If you call and lose you are out.

Therefore, you need to be at least 41.7% to win against opp's range to make this a good call (15.23%/36.48%).

Putting opp on a range that would call a preflop raise then C-R all-in, I would say this is 33, TT, QQ-AA, QT, AQ, KQ and QJ, particularly considering that he would be C-Ring against a stack that can really hurt him (you). This makes you 37.4% to win so you should fold:

Board: Qs 3s Td 
Dead:  

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	37.4400 %  	37.33% 	00.11%      { As2s }
Hand  2:	62.5600 %  	62.45% 	00.11%      { QQ+, TT, 33, AQs, KQs, QTs, AQo, KQo, QTo }

Whilst folding leaves you with only 8x BB, if you're comfortable playing push/fold as a short stack the situation isn't irretrievable - a few good shoves and you'll get most of your stack back.

[andr3w321]

Ty for your help taipan. I openshoved b/c I thought I was committed anyways, but obviously you have shown this is not the case. This is very helpful.

[Da GOAT]

i think its a simple check flop line.

flop aint good for us with the Q and T so if opp hit either could realistically c/r us.