Starfleet Selections: NFL Week 12

[ensign_lee]

Two bets stick out to me so far:

Who knows? They may be sucker bets and I may have to go back against them, but I'll take them for now:

Jacksonville -2.5 vs. Buffalo (-118)
Seriously; wtf is up with these lines? Jacksonville is a MUCH better team than Buffalo. Houston went up and down the field on Buffalo's defense today and take away two absolutely stupidass coverages by the Texans and you Buffalo only scored 7 points today.

New York Giants -3 vs. Tennessee (-120)
Tennessee beat up on Philly; good for them. They won't beat up on the Giants.

[ensign_lee]

For Thanksgiving, I have

Detroit M/L vs. Miami (+140)
1 unit at Pinnacle

This game should be pick'em. These are two TERRIBLE teams and this game is a coinflip. Therefore, I'll take the +140 for +EV.

[ensign_lee]

Pinnacle has been trying to keep away KC money the entire week. What gives?

Normally, I go with the original favorite when a dog becomes a favorite, but well...the pinny lean is saying no.

KC -2 vs. Denver (-105)
2 units at BetTrojan

Also,

Parlay: KC -2 / Over 39
1 unit at BetTrojan

If KC wins the game, this will probably go over. Also, the last few KC/Denver games in KC have gone over, if you care about trends. And, if you're a conspiracy theorist, well this is the first NFL game on NFL Network, so the NFL has a vested interest in making the game interesting. Hah...as if.

But really the main reason is the first one I stated. GO KC!

[IowaSkinsFan]

Christ Panthers only -4 versus the Redskins? You got to take the Panthers.

[ensign_lee]

So, on Thanksgiving, I went 1-2, and lost the juice of .05 units. Damn.

Oh well: onwards we go.

New Orleans -3.5 @ Atlanta (+226)
1 unit at Pinnacle
No; that's not a typo. Yes, I know the actual spread is Atlanta -3.

But Michael Vick and the Falcons are so volatile, you never know what exactly you're going to get. Either Vick is superhuman and unstoppable, or he is a horirble QB. And as Vick goes, the Falcons go.

So I think there's more value selling the extra points and getting to -3.5 with the Saints than simply taking the moneyline. I thought about taking the -7.5, but my balls aren't that big...or are they? Still thinking about it.

Houston Moneyline @ New York Jets (+192.08)
1 unit at Matchbook
Despite all of Houston's heartbreaking losses, I still believe that they are a good team. They've had one of the top 5 toughest schedules so far in the NFL, and I believe they can stand toe to toe with the Jets and win this game at least half the time. I'll take the +192.08. It's also helpful that the public is on the Jets at almost a 2:1 clip.

New England -3.5 vs. Chicago (-110)
1 unit at Skybook
New England is not a team to be handled lightly, especially at home in late November/early December. That home field advantage is freaking huge. The number has moved off of the 3, despite relatively even betting on both sides, indicating that heavy money is on New England (sharp money?). Plus, Chicago is still just too green to be bet on in important games like this.

~~~
Also, just so y'all know, I will be scalping out my JAC -2.5(-118) bet in the morning. Right now, I can sell a half point and get BUF +2.5 (+124), guaranteeing myself profit. Unfortunately, as I feared, the public is on Jacksonville as well...and, to top it off, the JAC/BUF game is the first one on the card.

Someone on another forum brought up the point that the bookmakers don't put the games on a card up in a haphazard, random order. The first game on the card is the one that the bettors see first, the one that they are more likely to bet on? Well, guess where the sucker bets would be most likely to be placed?

So, in light of that, I'd like to get off of Jacksonville while I can. I'll probably wait until morning, so that I can get a better price, but yeah.

As for that NYG bet, I dunno about that either; the public is on ther e with me, but I hate the titans , and I think the Giants will take out their revenge on the Titans. Plus, it's not really possible to scalp out without a loss currently, so yeah.

[ensign_lee]

Selections that I have not yet bet, but am waiting for better lines for are:

Cleveland M/L vs. Cincinatti - I know, it sounds crazy. But this is one of those "WTF fade the public kind of moments." It seems that nearly 80% of the money is coming in on Cincinatti, and yet the only line change has been in the juice, from -110 to -120 on Cincy. This kind of action warrants much, MUCH more of a line change than that. I mean, DAYUM. If I play this, this will probably be for 2 units, because I don't necessarily have the balls to make this a three unit play.

Philadelphia +9 (or hopefully better) @ Indianapolis - Gosh, I sure do not like betting against the Colts constantly. But the public is also around 80% on the Colts, and the line has done...what? Oh yeah, moved from +11 down to +9 or so. Granted, the +11's weren't around long, but you'd think with all the public action on IND -9, the line would have shot back up. Hell, Cris is showing a +8.5 right now, and they pretty much only move their lines on money...so WTF?

This either means A) this is a trap or B) there is just a SHIT TON of sharp money on the Eagles.

This will be a three unit play later, at the best line and price that I can get it at. I'm thinking this will creep up by kickoff.

[ensign_lee]

Christ Panthers only -4 versus the Redskins? You got to take the Panthers.

Yeah, I was thinking that too. But so is lots of the public, and Carolina hasn't exactly been a covering machine this year.

We'll see. I'm definitely tempted.

[ensign_lee]

Also, in case anybody cares, I will be making a play on the Buffalo moneyline after offsetting my Jacksonville bet.

It will be in the coming 10 minutes before kickoff. I'm hoping the game of chicken between the books and the bettors will break and I will get a better price.

[ensign_lee]

CLE Moneyline vs. CIN (+172.48)
3 units at Matchbook
This qualifies as a "WTF? Fade the public" play. A better write-up is in a post above

BUF Moneyline vs. JAC (+152.88)
2 unit at Matchbook
This play looks too good to be true. So, ergo take the other side. Plus, Jacksonville is horrible on the road.

Also, I have reversed my original JAC -2.5 (-118) bet.

[ensign_lee]

I reversed my original JAC -2.5 (-118) bet with a bet on BUF +2.5 (+115). I lost the game of chicken with Pinnacle. They moved it back to scalpable position right before the games went off, but I'd already taken the +115. Damn.

I structured that bet to where if BUF covered, the bets would offset, but if JAC covered, I'd lose an additional .11 units on top of the rest of the day.

I have also undone my NYG -3 (-118) bet with a TEN +3 (+126.5) bet, because too much of the public is with me on the Giants.

Allrighty. I think that just about does it for the day.

OFF TO WATCH FOOTBALL!!! GO TEXANS!

[ensign_lee]

One more to finish the night.

I know I said earlier I was going to take Philadelphia, but now...Pinny doesn't seem to want any Indy money...AT ALL.

So...

IND -9.5 (-115) vs. PHI
2 units at Skybook
And that'll do it.

[ensign_lee]

Scratch that last pick. Looks like Pinny tried to do a "pump-fake" or something crazy. The line is now at -10.5 at most places, and Pinny doesn't seem like they want to move the line.

I'm going to scalp my IND -9.5 (-115) bet with a PHI +10 (+104) or PHI +9.5 (+112). Probably the former rather than the latter because it gives me a slight chance for a mdidle.

But if you haven't placed your bets yet, now is not a good time to get on INdy.

[ensign_lee]

In fact, I will be placing a bet on:

PHI +11 (+100) @ IND
3 units at Bodog
I know, I know. Reversals tend to be bad. But, well, the public is ALL OVER Indianpolis.

Originally, I was going to go with Indy, because the Pinny lean was on it, but now it is definitely NOT on Indy, but on Philadelphia.

In light of that, I have to go with Philadelphia. Eeep...I'm betting against the Colts again...

[ensign_lee]

In case anyone cares, I got out of my IND -9.5 (-115) bet at Skybook with a PHI +9.5 (+115) bet at Pinnacle.

This time, I WON my game of chicken with Pinnacle.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Wow the skins decided to show up on D today, just goes to show there are no locks.

[ensign_lee]

Aww, damn.

My two big "WTF Fade the Public because these plays make no sesne" plays went down in flames.

Oh well.

I'll post a more accurate record update later. Looks like i'm down .68 units on the day for the NFL.