zook's Picks: NFL Week 13

[zook]

Just placed these:

CIN -3 vs. Bal (-114) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Fezzik just posted this and I love his reasoning. Cincy is home for a must-win game and Baltimore doesn't have a lot to play for after a big win over Pittsburgh. Plus I think Baltimore is overrated... +12 turnover ratio has inflated their win total. Thought about selling a half-point to -3.5 (+105) but I hate to get off the 3.

Dal -3.5 vs. NYG (-106) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

I like lee's analysis on this one, I'm sorry I didn't jump on it -3. Dallas is riding high, the Giants are beat-up and riding low, and Parcells is ten times the coach Coughlin is.

[zook]

A few games I'm thinking about, would love to hear other opinions:

Indy -7.5 vs. Ten (-101) @ Pinnacle

I think this line is a little low because of Tennessee's win last week, but the Giants basically gave that to them. I'm still not sold on Vince Young and Tennesse's defense is last in the AFC.

NYJ -1 vs. GB (-111) @ Pinnacle

I really like this game. The Jets are in a must-win situation and Green Bay isn't playing well. Pennington can play in the cold, so I'm not worried about that.

Sea +3 vs. Den (+107) @ Pinnacle

Hasselback with a game under his belt, Cutler starting his first game... this line seems off to me.

[ensign_lee]

Indy @ Tennessee - sure looks like a trap to me. Hey! That rhymes!

For the second one, I'm undecided. It's still at Lambeau, and I don't like fading the packers there.

I am definitely on the other side of that bet; I think Denver will rampage all over them. I'll probably sell a half point and get to DEN -3.5 at +120something.

[zook]

Indy @ Tennessee - sure looks like a trap to me. Hey! That rhymes!

I don't know... the line would be -13 or -14 in Indy, which seems fair. 7.5 is a lot of points to be giving a home team in the NFL... only a few road teams have been favored this much this season. Oddly though, they've all lost ATS. Now THAT might be enough for me to stay off it

For the second one, I'm undecided. It's still at Lambeau, and I don't like fading the packers there.

The Pack are 1-4 at home this year.

I am definitely on the other side of that bet; I think Denver will rampage all over them. I'll probably sell a half point and get to DEN -3.5 at +120something.

Huh. Why? Rookie quarterbacks making their first start do not have a good track record...

[ensign_lee]

Actually, if you'll recall, the line was -17.5 (and I think was at -19 at some shops) back in Indy for the Tennessee game.

For the GB game, good point.

For the DEN game, be careful fading Denver at Mile High.

[zook]

Actually, if you'll recall, the line was -17.5 (and I think was at -19 at some shops) back in Indy for the Tennessee game.

Yeah, but Tennessee was 0-5 then, it was Vince's second start and they hadn't beaten Philly, the Giants, or come very close to beating Indy yet, obv

For the DEN game, be careful fading Denver at Mile High.

Good point. And it's pretty much a must-win game for the Broncos. I dunno... Cutler starting scares me. I still might take the Hawks +3.5.

[zook]

Added a unit on the Bengals -3 (-108) for tonight. Averaging the juice gives me:

CIN -3 vs. Bal (-111) - 2 units @ Pinnacle

[zook]

In addition to the 2 units on Cincy, I added:

Bal vs. Cin OVER 41.5 (-115) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

The Pinny lean is on and a couple of cappers I respect like it. The weather is a concern, but the line started moving up after moving down the last couple hours, so it can't be that bad.

I'm feeling good about tonight, Pinny just moved the juice on Cincy -3 to -120 and the total to 42... the lean is on my side!

[zook]

Bah, over wasn't even close. Glad I upped the Cincy bet a unit to make it a profitable night.

Did a thorough review of my YTD stats and realized I missed about a unit and a half somewhere along the way. Also decided I should take the ~6 units I won on free bets out of my running total. Any schmuck can make money with free bets

YTD:

Straight wagers: 12-9
2-team teasers: 7-1
3-team teasers: 1-3
Totals: 0-1

+13.12 units

For the weekend all I have at this point are:

Dal -3.5 vs. NYG (-106) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
NYJ -1 vs. GB (+102) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

I really like the Jets, but I'm regretting the Dallas bet a little, because the line looks like it might come back down to 3. Oh well. I still like Sea +4 @ Den, and I'm thinking about the Saints -7 vs. SF.

[zook]

Added a unit on the Jets -1 (+104) and put one down on Seattle, giving me:

Dal -3.5 vs. NYG (-106) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
NYJ -1 vs. GB (+103) - 2 units @ Pinnacle
Sea +4 vs. Den (-101) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

That's probably it for the weekend.

[ensign_lee]

Yeah. I'm thinking WTF with that Dallas line as well.

I'm probably going to end up reversing it and taking a big position on the Giants; the giants play the best when they're in turmoil (contrary to every other team. WTF?), and Pinnacle seems to be trying to sucker in Dallas action.

[zook]

Well, we'll have a couple of opposite positions then At least one of use will win!

[zook]

Big win for the Jets but I feel like an ass for losing that Dallas bet. Should have gotten it at -3, should have reversed to the Giants +3.5... so much easier in hindsight. Up a unit on the day so far, but I added a couple of Seahawks bets... I just really like them tonight against the rookie QB. Here's what I have:

Sea +4 vs. Den (-101) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle (from earlier in the week)
Sea +4.5 vs. Den (+101) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
Sea M/L vs. Den (+192) - 1 unit @Pinnacle

Go Hawks!

[zook]

Seahawks and Jets came up big, putting me up 5 units on the day

Straight wagers: 15-10
2-team teasers: 7-1
3-team teasers: 1-3
Totals: 0-1
+18.10 units

[ensign_lee]

wtf Cutler? You suck!!!

Nice calls today zook!

[swiggidy]

wtf Cutler? You suck!!!

The snake has taught him well

nice work zook