(another) combo draw in position...flop play?

[benny999]

I'm trying to get better at outplaying ppl in position, and decided I'd try playing a non-standard hand (at least, for me) here. seanmo85 is very loose pre flop and on flop in and oop, but gets tight in large pots. he is 36/18 over 1,000 hands, and pretty aggro post flop. my image is tag, and have several times won medium/big pots vs villain by showing down better hands.

I wasn't sure what to make of his psb on the flop. I decided to raise thinking it could be a cbet (maybe should have looked up if he has cbet patterns), but either way I have a lot of equity.
There was also a little metagame factor because villain and some others at the table are regulars.

Hand #37040028-17239 at Burleson (No Limit Hold'em)
Started at 29/Nov/06 03:14:55

Hero is at seat 0 with $112.50.
DRX is at seat 1 with $94.
I_STRONG is at seat 2 with $123.65.
EMW1 is at seat 3 with $25.15.
seanmo85 is at seat 4 with $93.95.
Sammason is at seat 5 with $21.70.
The button is at seat 1.

I_STRONG posts the small blind of $.50.
EMW1 posts the big blind of $1.

Hero:
DRX: -- --
I_STRONG: -- --
EMW1: -- --
seanmo85: -- --
Sammason: -- --

Pre-flop:

seanmo85 raises to $3.50. Sammason folds.
Hero calls. DRX calls. I_STRONG folds.
EMW1 folds.

Flop (board: :Js: ) - 3way, $12

seanmo85 bets $12. Hero raises to $36 and plans to call a push

I could see reasons for calling the flop as well, and IowaSkinsFan thought that'd be better in our session reviews, so I figured I'd see what you think.

[gabe]

the fact that he tightens up a little when the pot starts getting big makes this raise good

[griffey24]

I'm torn on this hand. what do we know about villain? is he capable of folding big hands?

The pot size bet from EP may lead me to think he has an overpair. How much fold equity do you think we have?

I think I would play this hand the same way if I thought I had some fold equity. If not, I may just call his flop bet.

The strength of our hand comes from Fold equity... if we have none... then we aren't really that good here.

(note: if villain is MP/CO and we have position, and he continuation bets 3/4, then I'm definitely playing the hand as you played it)

[Genitruc]

I'm torn on this hand. what do we know about villain? is he capable of folding big hands?

The pot size bet from EP may lead me to think he has an overpair. How much fold equity do you think we have?

I think I would play this hand the same way if I thought I had some fold equity. If not, I may just call his flop bet.

The strength of our hand comes from Fold equity... if we have none... then we aren't really that good here.

(note: if villain is MP/CO and we have position, and he continuation bets 3/4, then I'm definitely playing the hand as you played it)

the strength of our hand comes from the fact that we are leading an overpair

also, if this guy is an aware reg u face a lot, getting all in on a flop with your hand is good for meta-game

[andy-akb]

I'm torn on this hand. what do we know about villain? is he capable of folding big hands?

The pot size bet from EP may lead me to think he has an overpair. How much fold equity do you think we have?

I think I would play this hand the same way if I thought I had some fold equity. If not, I may just call his flop bet.

The strength of our hand comes from Fold equity... if we have none... then we aren't really that good here.

(note: if villain is MP/CO and we have position, and he continuation bets 3/4, then I'm definitely playing the hand as you played it)

the strength of our hand comes from the fact that we are leading an overpair

also, if this guy is an aware reg u face a lot, getting all in on a flop with your hand is good for meta-game

I was going to post the same thing but then I did the calculations and its almost a dead even flip. Regardless though, your main point is that we dont need the FE, and I agree. With the dead money in the middle we are +EV here, any FE is a bonus.

Board: 2s Js 5d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.2020 % 50.20% 00.00% { KcKd }
Hand 2: 49.7980 % 49.80% 00.00% { 7s5s }

[Genitruc]

strange

i thought 15 outs usually = 53% equity vs overpair

[Genitruc]

oops forget that we have 14 outs my bad

[Genitruc]

sry for spamming w millions of 1-line posts

but yeah the point is by playing this hand this way, it makes it basically impossible to ever fold an overpair vs u so your sets/2 pair will get more action

[gabe]

if that deuce was a 4 we are up to .516....gotta consider the backdoor outs more

[Genitruc]

trudat

backdoor outs are sexy

[Genitruc]

gabe are you throwing a party3 posts from now?

[gabe]

i should....maybe ill post every hand ive played in the past month and analyze each one really deeply.....or post my poker manifesto or something

[Genitruc]

rofl option 1 sounds best

[Numbr2intheWorld]

If this isn't a cont bet he's not folding a raise.

If this is a cont bet he's probably checking the turn anyway.

[benny999]

If this isn't a cont bet he's not folding a raise.

If this is a cont bet he's probably checking the turn anyway.

I think that makes a lot of sense. The thing that make me want to raise is the metagame like genitruc posted about, but it's not THAT big of a deal at 100nl...and also that I think I could get him off TPWK, maybe even KJ/AJ but not too likely. of course i get him off a cbet but could prob do the same with less risk by calling like you said.

So, anyone else think calling can be more +ev than raising?

edit, actually I think that raising gets enough hands to fold, TPWK, pocket pair <JJ, that could be "seeing where their at" on the flop and might continue on the turn.

[nutsinho]

the problem with calling is that if the turn is a blank and he bets close to the pot again you pretty much have to fold and if the turn is a spade youre not going to get much action.

I always try to get all in here because the only hands I raise in position here are ace-high flush draws, combo draws, and sets.

FWIW I make it like 44$ rather than 36 to make it perfectly clear I'm not scared of his probable overpair and am definitely putting all my money in the middle.

[Lukie]

seems pretty standard. The real interesting question is what to do if he calls, then checks to us on a blank turn. Do we fire away or take a free card?

[Genitruc]

seems pretty standard. The real interesting question is what to do if he calls, then checks to us on a blank turn. Do we fire away or take a free card?

against a fish i like checking behind the turn

against a good player who will remember the hand I like betting/shoving the turn for obvious meta-shit

[gabe]

the description he gives makes this really easy to play fast vs this opponent

[benny999]

kind of a long post...but wow, seeing patterns is awesome. I just looked through hands with seanmo, and he has some obvious tendencies:
--almost every time he cbet 2/3 to 3/4 the pot with either air or mid pair, but full pot with TPTK.
--the times his cbet was called and he had TPTK, he check/called or check/raised the turn.

so after looking this up, it looks like checking the turn would've been better he called. although the pot bet could have given his hand away - he paused a little then shoved with AJ, and I didn't win the race, doh...at least he wrote he almost folded.
I think even without knowing that I would check the turn, because I knew he's generally bad and wouldn't see this guy folding after he calls the flop. I knew he tends to fold weaker hands, or else go all the way, but wish I knew about the cbet size and turn check stuff.

anyway, wow...should be easy to play him now! wish I looked this up earlier. I never have really looked at this kind of stuff to play regulars better, cool.

[Genitruc]

I did this for a while when I played regularly (euuh... "regularly" for my standards lol) on Prima. It really, really helped my game to try to get into the minds of the regs. It takes a long time but makes sitting at those boring reg tables a million times more stimulating and profitable. Keep it up ben

[Ash256]

the problem with calling is that if the turn is a blank and he bets close to the pot again you pretty much have to fold and if the turn is a spade youre not going to get much action.

^^ Says it perfectly.

[Galapogos]

seems pretty standard. The real interesting question is what to do if he calls, then checks to us on a blank turn. Do we fire away or take a free card?

Fire away, this guy doesn't like playing big pots he said. Most times though I would check behind.