5/10 vs Lyric WTF does he have

[Lukie]

Villain is Lyric, a decent regular at 5/10. Some people think he's very good although I think he's a tad overrated. Anyway, he's a decent taggish, nitty type player.

The hand is played kind of weird. Lyric knows I 2 barrel with a good amount of consistency. I also try to make a weakish looking bet on the turn, both in terms of not aligning an all-in on the river, and only betting 2/3 pot on a board that is getting really shitty, really quick. The plan is to check/call most non-spade rivers. I was not expecting the ol' overbet all-in. Ax of diamonds would make sense, but I think this guy 3-bets or folds most aces pre. A set would find a raise before the river.

Comments on any street appreciated, especially the river.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($1104)
UTG ($2120)
Hero ($2273)
CO ($1030)
Button ($1010)
SB ($1224.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, K.
1 fold, Hero raises to $40, CO calls $40, 3 folds.

Flop: ($95) 4, A, J (2 players)
Hero bets $70, CO calls $70.

Turn: ($235) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $150, CO calls $150.

River: ($535) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $770 (All-In), Hero calls $770.

Final Pot: $2075

[jackvance]

Could he be using the weirdness of his line to get you to call? Draws completed on the river for one, and he might also be setting this up with something like AJ?..

[Renton]

draws didn't really complete on this river.

BTW, lukie, are you ever really second barrelling on this board?

[gabe]

if hes good i dont think he would ever play a missed draw like this because it looks exactly like a missed draw.

i think this guy is kinda nitty so i would fold.

[Jager]

I think hes got 68 spades. If he is a nit I usually see them just call with their draws even in position, if he has no respect for your game I think this is in his PF calling range. I am not really sure what kind of history you 2 have, but based on what you said I think you don't respect each other.

[Lukie]

draws didn't really complete on this river.

BTW, lukie, are you ever really second barrelling on this board?

all day long and twice on sunday

[Renton]

draws didn't really complete on this river.

BTW, lukie, are you ever really second barrelling on this board?

all day long and twice on sunday

this can't be a great play at my stakes. Are you 2nd barrelling here based on the fact that he'd 3bet most aces?

[nutsinho]

68 of spades looks like the obvious possibility, and i also really don't think its out of the question for a good player to have a set here. He might have initially decided to wait til the turn to raise you, but then your turn bet makes it look like you have an AQ-AK that isnt very excited about playing for a lot of money, so he just calls again intending to push any nonspade river, since thats the best chance of you putting all of your chips in with just a pair. He will also probably have air a good chunk of the time, but I don't know the player so I cant tell you whether it was a good or bad call.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

well,he has to be like 36% of the time total air for this to be good, and i doubt that's the case.

If he out played you here i think you just have to let it go.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

He also has an account on this forum, some maybe he'll come out and just tell us his thinking.

or maybe not...

[Ravageur]

I wouldn't be surprised to see AdXd. I think this is a fold. When you check, it looks like you're intending to check/call, so if he's decent he'll just give up on it if he had a busted draw. Maybe this is 3rd-4th level thinking though and he makes the play knowing that you know that you expect him to bluff his draw etc...

I still think it's a fold though.

[Fnord]

I've made worse calls.

[Lukie]

draws didn't really complete on this river.

BTW, lukie, are you ever really second barrelling on this board?

all day long and twice on sunday

this can't be a great play at my stakes. Are you 2nd barrelling here based on the fact that he'd 3bet most aces?

In my 200 or so hands at .5/1 playing with you, I honestly don't think anybody called (or raised) any of my 2nd barrels, ever. And I was playing like 40/30. Plus, that is a huge sample size so I'm obviously right.

In all seriousness, consider your typical somewhat weak/tight aggro TAgg.. what hands are they going to have on this board that can withstand a lot of pressure that just called pre and called on the flop?

[Lukie]

if hes good i dont think he would ever play a missed draw like this because it looks exactly like a missed draw.

i think this guy is kinda nitty so i would fold.

yeah, I think this is very good reasoning and it was honestly my first impression.

He had QJ diamonds. I'm not being results oriented when I say that I think this is a very poor call on the river for the most part. Meh, whatever. I've also made worse.

[Renton]

draws didn't really complete on this river.

BTW, lukie, are you ever really second barrelling on this board?

all day long and twice on sunday

this can't be a great play at my stakes. Are you 2nd barrelling here based on the fact that he'd 3bet most aces?

In my 200 or so hands at .5/1 playing with you, I honestly don't think anybody called (or raised) any of my 2nd barrels, ever. And I was playing like 40/30. Plus, that is a huge sample size so I'm obviously right.

In all seriousness, consider your typical somewhat weak/tight aggro TAgg.. what hands are they going to have on this board that can withstand a lot of pressure that just called pre and called on the flop?

sad thing is tons of people (including your weak/tight aggro tagg archetype) smooth call with AT, AJ, and even weaker aces, and they aren't going away to your second barrel on said board.

[aislephive]

This is a bad call because a good solid nitty player is not going to be bluffing here really that often at all. As Gabe said, he knows it looks like a bluff, he isn't stupid. Overbet shove bluffs are just in general rare. Fold and feel good about it regardless if he was bluffing or not in the actual hand.

[Ash256]

Lyric's good at pokah.

[gabe]

hes a nit

[Irisheyes]

My incredible hand reading device tells me that Lyric has 2 diamonds.

[Genitruc]

me thinks this is a good bet considerign villain s holdings

it would be an even better bluff considering meta-game stuff (nitty image etc), even though hero would have called him down

[nutsinho]

overbet bluff shove = the nuts

[Genitruc]

which is why it s a good bluff

[gabe]

its not really an overbet, hes not going to bet full pot leaving himself a few extra dollars behind

[|~|ypermegachi]

is it standard for villain to call this flop with 2nd pair GK?

[gabe]

its standard against a PFR with such a wide range

[Genitruc]

yup

[alias2211]

CR allin on turn.

[alias2211]

ok now that i see results, CR all in on turn.

[Genitruc]

haha alias for FTR guru awesome

[Irisheyes]

My incredible hand reading device tells me that Lyric has 2 diamonds.

Just to clarify my brilliance for the world, I actually didn't realise the results were out when I posted this. Please bow down...

[gabe]

but i was first person in thread to say fold!

[Lukie]

My incredible hand reading device tells me that Lyric has 2 diamonds.

Just to clarify my brilliance for the world, I actually didn't realise the results were out when I posted this. Please bow down...

yeah, that's how it kind of came off as (seriously).

if I wasn't a complete fuckup at poker, I would have realized that both the A and the J were black and that he could easily have 2 diamonds on the river. It's also possible, that form his perspective, that I could have 2 diamonds myself! go me.

[Irisheyes]

but i was first person in thread to say fold!

ok gabe you can be my right hand hand reading hand man.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Owned?

[gabe]

but i was first person in thread to say fold!

ok gabe you can be my right hand hand reading hand man.

niiice

[dsaxton]

Looks like a fake bluff sucker play.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

My incredible hand reading device tells me that Lyric has 2 diamonds.

if I wasn't a complete fuckup at poker, I would have realized that both the A and the J were black and that he could easily have 2 diamonds on the river. It's also possible, that form his perspective, that I could have 2 diamonds myself! go me.

I think you bring up a very good hand reading point here. If he does has an Ace here, it's a 50% chance that it's the Adiamond, and if he has a J it's 1/3 that it's a diamond. It's something that i have thought about sometimes, but i feel that it's something that should be considered more often.