Nut Flush 310BB Deep vs Good Villain

[Genitruc]

Just for fun : plz no wordy replies. All I want is a kind of poll : 0 is insta-fold and 10 is insta-call. 3 is puke-then-fold, 7 is ball-your-eyes-out-then-call. 4-6 would be crying fold/call and 5 means villains range and pot-odds make the call neutral ev.

If that's too long/complicated : rate the hand on a scale of 0 to 10. 0 is insta-fold and 10 is insta-call (river is action in question obv).

Disclaimer : since villain is very good, raising doesn't enter my mind at any point... I have called him down extremely light a few times and I'm 3/3 so far... He hasn't won a pot vs me yet. This being said, he likes being the aggressor and probably knows I'm the person at the table the least likely to give him (of all people) a big gift...

***** Hand History for Game 5485119082 *****
$200 NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, December 06, 01:21:06 ET 2006
Table Table 126744 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 4: pistolboy236 ( $227.15 )
Seat 5: karelen ( $633.15 )
Seat 1: HERO ( $780.40 )
Seat 3: potato_onion ( $201 )
Seat 6: john88881111 ( $280.50 )
Seat 2: Seszion ( $198 )
Seszion posts small blind [$1].
potato_onion posts big blind [$2].

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Ac 8c ]
pistolboy236 folds.
karelen raises [$8]
john88881111 folds.
HERO calls [$8]
Seszion calls [$7]
potato_onion folds.

** Dealing Flop ** [ 3c, 5h, Jc ]
Seszion checks.
karelen bets [$20]
HERO raises [$55]
Seszion folds.
karelen calls [$35]

** Dealing Turn ** [ Qc ]
karelen checks.
HERO bets [$111]
karelen calls [$111]

** Dealing River ** [ Js ]
>You have options at Table 125446 Table!.
karelen bets [$250]
HERO : lol gross
HERO : XXXXXXXXly gross
>You have options at Jackpot #1305282 (No DP) Table!.
HERO pukes, then cries, then pukes some more, then...?

[bigspenda73]

I vote 3, but more like puke in my mouth than puke in the toilet

[Miffed22001]

with the money behind his call is ok so on that id say maybe a 5, as for apparent suck outs id go for a spew-special 2.

[IowaSkinsFan]

ugh.... 3.5

[johnny_fish]

6..

[gabe]

gotta call, only QJ beats you

[Pelion]

Hmmm I dont know. I was about to say "i think i call but its close". Then I changed my mind. Then I changed it again a few times. In short puke and 5.

[jackvance]

insta fold

[griffey24]

gotta call, only QJ beats you

I agree with Gabe here. As played, I think only QJ beats us here (or queens). If villain is so solid, wouldn't they fold two pair to a pot sized turn bet, when the flush card comes?

On the river, doesn't a worse flush lead into us? Is this never a lower flush betting at us?

its close for sure, gotta go 6.

[Ash256]

In my opinion, the main question here is whether or not, from your knowledge your villain has taken a set line.

[chardrian]

gotta call, only QJ beats you

why are u ruling 33,55, and QQ out? Is it cuz villain woulda/shoulda pushed the flop with those?

[elipsesjeff]

I call. Be lucky he didn't push.

[Genitruc]

FWIW I fold to a push pretty easily... If that's exploitable oh well

[gabe]

gotta call, only QJ beats you

why are u ruling 33,55, and QQ out? Is it cuz villain woulda/shoulda pushed the flop with those?

yea if our read is right (villian is good) and villian has a set, then the he is always reraising flop so deep

[mcatdog]

that doesn't rule out QQ though

[Lukie]

gotta call, only QJ beats you

why are u ruling 33,55, and QQ out? Is it cuz villain woulda/shoulda pushed the flop with those?

yea if our read is right (villian is good) and villian has a set, then the he is always reraising flop so deep

so a post says that a player is good and you automatically assume that they always play a set a certain way (I would agree that a good player would very often 3-bet a set on the flop and rightfully so, but if you have spent much time at 1/2 you would know that flop raises very rarely get 3-bet over.)

Against your average ABC type 1/2 player, I think this is a fold, but probably close.

Raising is obviously terrible here... ugh with a smaller flush I could pitch this and feel great about it, as is, I'd still probably toss it. I think the player is full here too much and my opinion is that your average low-midstakes player will very rarely lead over a full buyin on the river without being full here, especially with the line that he took.

I'd say 3ish..... this would change if the game was shorthanded and playing aggressively, etc...

[Numbr2intheWorld]

at first i thought 4, but since reading these posts i'm thinking more like 7. It actually looks like a little bit of a bluff.

[Genitruc]

at first i thought 4, but since reading these posts i'm thinking more like 7. It actually looks like a little bit of a bluff.

this would be a world-class bluff

[Genitruc]

consensus seems to be about 5 (call and just expect to be beat pretty often)

Lukie hit it right on the head here : villain had 555 on flop and called turn to fill up on river.

If I had Q or K high flush I could find a fold here. But since villain is not terrible, I can see him block-betting K or 10-high flush here (K being more likely obv). Although his river bet makes a KK or AAish hand virtually impossible.

Tough hand

[nutsinho]

consensus seems to be about 5 (call and just expect to be beat pretty often)

Lukie hit it right on the head here : villain had 555 on flop and called turn to fill up on river.

If I had Q or K high flush I could find a fold here. But since villain is not terrible, I can see him block-betting K or 10-high flush here (K being more likely obv). Although his river bet makes a KK or AAish hand virtually impossible.

Tough hand

250 could hardly be viewed as a blocking-sized bet and is clearly representing a full house
the only redeeming value in your hand is that you played it less than straightforward by raising the flop---in that way your final hand is underrepresented
i definitely thought villain was fully capable of having a set-a good villain isnt always going to 3bet sets on flop just because they are deep, b3b out of position on disconnected board lets villain get away from tpgk with liittle money in the pot-bet/call and c/r turn is a line often worth the risk of an action killing card falling
that said, he could (very seldom) have as little as AJ if the game was playing superaggro and your line had him confused
as for my overall opinion, villain looks really strong here, and i never voiced my opinion before results because at first I thought 3, then I thought 6, and I ended up thinking 4-5 which isnt very interesting at all

[Genitruc]

nutsinho :

by "block bet" I mean setting his price... which he could very well do with K high flush. He's obv never folding to a raise (so it's not a "classic" block bet) but if he has 2nd nut flush or strangely played AA/KK then this line forces me to smooth call rather than raise with less than a boat

If he puts me on nut flush then optimal play is to check raise this river as I will bet 100% of time when checked to.

And yeah, I was running at 41/32 at the table so he views me as extremely aggro

Also, I completely agree that it's not all that weird for him to flat call my flop raise. In the heat of the moment, I felt he had a set on turn that missed a check-raise when the flush completed. It was pretty close to a fold... Having a maniacal image makes it tougher to lay down monsters though.

[Lukie]

genitruc,

hypothetically, put yourself in villain's shoes. Also, say you have 33 instead of 55. you're playing against yourself, or a player that you view as comparable in skill to yourself. You bet $250 on the river. Other guy pushes. Your action?

[Miffed22001]

genitruc,

hypothetically, put yourself in villain's shoes. Also, say you have 33 instead of 55. you're playing against yourself, or a player that you view as comparable in skill to yourself. You bet $250 on the river. Other guy pushes. Your action?

would be difficult to fold if the action went like that for the pot odds, but possible depending more on our image at the table and its aggressiveness.

[Renton]

havent read replies, i call this. He only has one pair on the turn with that line.

[Warpe]

havent read replies, i call this. He only has one pair on the turn with that line.

How often are we raising a set here when the flush draw completes?

[Renton]

usually a set is betting out

[Warpe]

usually a set is betting out

Disagree. A lot of opps would c/c here for pot control if they want to give themselves a chance to fill up on the river.

[Genitruc]

Re : Lukie's question

Ummm... disconnect?

When villain pushes and you have bottom boat I seriously think we have to be beat. God I can't imagine folding for like less than a buy-in in a 7 buy-in pot... but we only beat a bluff. Villain is never shipping it with a flush or a lower boat...

Lukie just the thought of that ever happening makes me want to take my winnings and run.

Edit : Ever suddenly have an intense gory vision or image pop into your mind when you're just chilling? Like you're waiting for the bus and you see a mother/baby combo waiting with you. Then you see a dumpster drive by and suddenly you have this image of the dumpster slowly rolling over the baby's skull?

That's how Lukie's question made me feel. He is a very sick, disturbed person...

[gabe]

usually a set is betting out

Disagree. A lot of opps would c/c here for pot control if they want to give themselves a chance to fill up on the river.

i agree with your disagreement. a set is usually playing the flop faster and if they get to the turn this way they aren't betting or raising when that turn card hits.

[Renton]

so you don't think a set is leading this turn for blocking and protection purposes (against the Ac or Kc)?

[Fnord]

Got more information?
How loose of an opener does he figure to be from that position?
How shy is he about playing very big pots?
How many tables is he playing?

HERO : lol gross
HERO : XXXXXXXXly gross

What did you hope to accomplish with that? For the most part, I think this sort of chatter is best applied after showdown so you can be results oriented.

[DaNutsInYoEye]

I call. I'd expect to see AJ/JK here more often than a boat.

[Genitruc]

Fnord :

I'm playing without a Hud these days but he seems like a 20/15ish kind of guy. He's playing at least 2 other tables but I'm not on them.

We have avoided each other thus far

I don't think he'd try to put a big move on me (I've called him down light 3 times already)

Also, the table is filled with donks (hence our stack sizes)