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Weird hand.. $3 rebuy

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  1. #1

    Default Weird hand.. $3 rebuy

    Villain is super aggressive. I've seen him play for stacks with top pair, getting all the money in once he makes top pair... so I'm led to assume he doesn't have A8 on this board..

    What do you do and why? Thanks for the help..

    Seat 1: rosco65 (16952 in chips)
    Seat 2: slim999 (47882 in chips)
    Seat 3: buck21663 (25364 in chips)
    Seat 4: SFCKingRARD (22785 in chips)
    Seat 5: alexans (11220 in chips)
    Seat 6: MichaelMay (2325 in chips)
    Seat 7: ChipMover007 (81242 in chips)
    Seat 8: EHartlin (13115 in chips)
    Seat 9: rev93coach (13243 in chips)
    rosco65: posts the ante 50
    slim999: posts the ante 50
    buck21663: posts the ante 50
    SFCKingRARD: posts the ante 50
    alexans: posts the ante 50
    MichaelMay: posts the ante 50
    ChipMover007: posts the ante 50
    EHartlin: posts the ante 50
    rev93coach: posts the ante 50
    ChipMover007: posts small blind 400
    EHartlin: posts big blind 800
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to EHartlin [7h 6c]
    rev93coach: folds
    rosco65: folds
    slim999: folds
    buck21663: folds
    SFCKingRARD: calls 800
    alexans: folds
    MichaelMay: folds
    ChipMover007: calls 400
    EHartlin: checks
    *** FLOP *** [8c 6d 7d]
    ChipMover007: bets 1600
    EHartlin: raises 3600 to 5200
    SFCKingRARD: folds
    ChipMover007: calls 3600
    *** TURN *** [8c 6d 7d] [Td]
    ChipMover007: bets 8000
    EHartlin: folds
    ChipMover007 collected 13250 from pot

    900 left, 600 are paid
  2. #2
    well, it's easy to say shove over on the flop after seeing the turn...

    shove over on the flop. I know it looks like an overbet but there are just so many cards that can kill your hand or the action and you don't know which are which. Also, I ran a couple stoves and really you want him to fold or call a lot if he has anything. 5, 8, 9, T, A, diamond can all make him a better hand. I'm too lazy too count but that's like half the deck I think.

    I know you want to get value out of two pair but the board is so ugly. Again, it's not just that you can be outdrawn, it's that you don't know what he is drawing at.

    As played it's a good fold, Td is a super bad card.


    Code:
    Board: 8c 6d 7d 
    
            	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
    Hand  1:	48.4848 %  	47.27% 	01.21%      { 9c8s }
    Hand  2:	51.5152 %  	50.30% 	01.21%      { 7h6c }
    
    
            	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
    Hand  1:	43.2828 %  	41.92% 	01.36%      { Qd4d }
    Hand  2:	56.7172 %  	55.35% 	01.36%      { 7h6c }
    
    
    
            	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
    Hand  1:	47.9798 %  	43.94% 	04.04%      { 9s7s }
    Hand  2:	52.0202 %  	47.98% 	04.04%      { 7h6c }
    
            	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
    Hand  1:	39.2424 %  	37.88% 	01.36%      { 9s6s }
    Hand  2:	60.7576 %  	59.39% 	01.36%      { 7h6c }
    
    
            	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
    Hand  1:	27.8788 %  	25.45% 	02.42%      { Qs8s }
    Hand  2:	72.1212 %  	69.70% 	02.42%      { 7h6c }
    
    
            	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
    Hand  1:	34.4949 %  	33.13% 	01.36%      { 3d2d }
    Hand  2:	65.5051 %  	64.14% 	01.36%      { 7h6c }
    
    
            	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
    Hand  1:	27.5253 %  	25.96% 	01.57%      { Ts6s }
    Hand  2:	72.4747 %  	70.91% 	01.57%      { 7h6c }
  3. #3
    chardrian's Avatar
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    I like the raise on the flop - u want to double up here and this is a great chance to do it.

    Any non-T on that turn and u push. U just got leed.
    http://chardrian.blogspot.com
    come check out my training videos at pokerpwnage.com
  4. #4
    you're pushing a 9 or 8 or an A on the turn? what hands are calling that we beat?
  5. #5
    also, what hands call a raise on the flop that don't call a push?
  6. #6
    I don't like the flop raise. The flop is just too dangerous...
    There is no need to reduce the field. It's not the number of players that we afraid of, but the number of unwanted cards...
    Raising for value?
    No thanks. If you define all tens, 9-s, 5-s, 4-s and diamonds as unpleasant cards (I'll "forget" the aces ), then you have almost 75% (!) probability to buy at least one of them.
    If you count only really dreadful cards (tens, 9-s, 5-s), than you have "only" 45% chance to see some. Too much for me, even if we have a four full house outs...
    The only acceptable raise to me is all in, hoping that nobody has a made hand. I mean, if you want to put significant part of your stack in pot without seeing the turn - then put it all, before THEY see the turn.
    Only with folding equity provided by all in move, you can be the real favorite in this hand...

    I'd like to see the turn, though. I'd like to see it as cheaply as I can. And then: if I like the turn card, I'd fire - if scary card comes, I'd fold as you did.
    The only difference would be a 50% (!) bigger stack (if you call on flop, SFCKingRARD doesn't raise and you fold on turn)

    P.S. It's possible that I've made some mistake(s) in calculating, but analysis remains the same...
  7. #7
    chardrian's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    5,435
    I don't mind the call flop, push a blank turn move (in fact looking back at this hand, I like that move the best). But u guys are failing to look at chip stacks. Hartlin is getting to about as close to push/fold as you can get preflop here. He really really wants to double up. This flop is giving him the opportunity to do so. Pushing is only going to get called by a hand that has u beat or has a good opportunity to beat u... but good players will/can fold to a push there if they correctly realize oh crap I only have 8 (not 14 like they thought they did). The raise is also going to get bad players with a hand like A5 to call, whereas even bad players can realize that they shouldnt be calling with the butt end draw there. Lastly, the raise leaving u with half ur stack behind will often get good players to push over the top of you with nothing, cuz they think that you are leaving yourself with just enough that you can fold.

    I don't hate a push there - but I think his raise was better.
    http://chardrian.blogspot.com
    come check out my training videos at pokerpwnage.com
  8. #8
    the point is, what is a blank turn? He may have been bluffed out by A5 (esp with the Ad) on the turn. If we were OOP your play makes more sense.

    On chip stacks, villian has so much he calls a push just as often as a raise IMO.

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