TPNK with flush draw, your move? ($27)

[taipan168]

SB is a LAGGtard, 44/28, doubled me up with AK when he called an AI with A8 a few hands earlier.

What's a better line with this TPNK and flush draw? C-R all-in? As played, should I call this push?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button (t1995)
SB (t2010)
Hero (t2700)
UTG (t2465)
MP1 (t1665)
MP2 (t1210)
CO (t1455)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4, T.
1 fold, MP1 calls t100, 2 folds, Button calls t100, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t400) T, 9, 7 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t250, MP1 folds, Button calls t250, SB raises to t1910, Hero ????

[gingerwizard]

wouldnt be surprised if TP is good but flush draw is not. Else he has 2 pair and fd is good. We can do the maths if we give reasonable weightings to what he has.
Say he is 10% on air
30% on better flush draw
40% on two pair or trips
20% on lower pair than tens with over card.

Further lets assume he won't hit anything meaningful if he did this with air.
pot is 2800 and you need to call 1660 so you need odds of 1.69 to call ie about 37.2%.

We still have the button present but lets presume if you push to isolate he'll go away. (to simplify things)

Air = (100X10)% = 10%
Better FD: Assuming you are ahead and he has 7 outs. Roughly (30%x72%) = 21.6%
You are down but your FD is good: You have 9 outs. Roughly(40%x35%)=14%
Tens are good and he needs to improve a lower pair. so assume 2 outs to trips + 2 outs to 2 pair (one is your flush card) Roughly (20%*83.5%)=16.7%
so you have odds of 62.3% assuming the weightings above are reasonable. Making it an easy call if you can rely on button fold.

Play around with the weightings or give me new ones or whatever.

[drmcboy]

call for sure, CR AI is probably best, especially if button happens to have a bigger FD or 89/J9 or even something like T8/T6 he'll play bad and fold to all the action.

[Da GOAT]

Say he is 10% on air
30% on better flush draw
40% on two pair or trips
20% on lower pair than tens with over card.

i dont know where your getting this from.

im thinking WTF is he c/r with?

[taipan168]

Say he is 10% on air
30% on better flush draw
40% on two pair or trips
20% on lower pair than tens with over card.

i dont know where your getting this from.

im thinking WTF is he c/r with?

Ginger is trying to Harringtonise this analysis. I think ICM with appropriate hand ranges is better than Harrington-style analysis though.

My guess with the C-R all-in was an Ax flush draw. That said, the guy wasn't a great player so it could be a slowplayed two pair or set.

[Da GOAT]

Say he is 10% on air
30% on better flush draw
40% on two pair or trips
20% on lower pair than tens with over card.

i dont know where your getting this from.

im thinking WTF is he c/r with?

Ginger is trying to Harringtonise this analysis. I think ICM with appropriate hand ranges is better than Harrington-style analysis though.

My guess with the C-R all-in was an Ax flush draw. That said, the guy wasn't a great player so it could be a slowplayed two pair or set.

ginger i just dont think you can just throw numbers in, only the 10% rule part makes sense.

i fold to the push. just near impossible to kno where we are here, dont think we are ahead often enough.

[TLR]

Tough point, I think I fold here.
You have no real way of knowing if you are ahead or behind, even if he is on a flush draw you are behind any 2 over draws or X8 draw where X>T.

You have an healty stack and will still have one if you fold, no need to risk everything on this borderline situation

[drmcboy]

even if he is on a flush draw you are behind any 2 over draws or X8 draw where X>T.

folding here is really bad. Did you actually bother to run these numbers? yikes. You're a 3/1 fav over 8x!!!

I'm trying not to be harsh, but really guys, you can't fold here. Ever. You are wildly underestimating the combo draw.

Board: Td 9s 7s 

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	70.0000 %  	69.70% 	00.30%      { Ts4s }
Hand  2:	30.0000 %  	29.70% 	00.30%      { Qs8h }

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	56.8687 %  	55.96% 	00.91%      { As8s }
Hand  2:	43.1313 %  	42.22% 	00.91%      { Ts4s }

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	63.5859 %  	63.13% 	00.45%      { KsJs }
Hand  2:	36.4141 %  	35.96% 	00.45%      { Ts4s }


        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	56.0354 %  	54.52% 	01.52%      { ATs, ATo }
Hand  2:	43.9646 %  	42.45% 	01.52%      { Ts4s }


        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	30.7071 %  	29.80% 	00.91%      { Ts4s }
Hand  2:	69.2929 %  	68.38% 	00.91%      { 7c7h }

[taipan168]

I actually ended up folding this, I guess I was a bit taken aback by the C-R by SB and instinctively folded.

I agree with drmcboy that this was a bad fold once I reviewed the hand later and realised how far ahead I was, particularly considering the 1.7 to 1 pot odds. Oh well, live and learn.

[TLR]

folding here is really bad. Did you actually bother to run these numbers? yikes. You're a 3/1 fav over 8x!!!

I'm trying not to be harsh, but really guys, you can't fold here. Ever. You are wildly underestimating the combo draw.

I meant X8 flush draw if it was not clear.

What hand range d you put villian on to make it such a clear call ?

[drmcboy]

anything thing in my stoves above. big over FDs or the set are the least likely since I would assume LAGGtard is raising with most PPs and big sooted. Given price it's a clear call unless you're sure he has one of those since we're flipping most and ahead of some, we are almost getting 2/1.

[TLR]

anything thing in my stoves above. big over FDs or the set are the least likely since I would assume LAGGtard is raising with most PPs and big sooted. Given price it's a clear call unless you're sure he has one of those since we're flipping most and ahead of some, we are almost getting 2/1.

Considering the action on the flop I dont think even a Laggy makes this move without a hand, he either has TPGK, FD with at least one over, probably two, and in your beswt case something like 98, 78, you are either behind or a bit ahead, and its just not worth it at this staeg of the Sng

[drmcboy]

of course it is worth it, we are getting a huge price for a flip and well ahead of the bubble so chip and $ EV are still in line. I highly suggest you (re) read Theory of Poker. Folding here is giving away money.

Don't reply with "I'm better than the field" because taking gambles with the right price is what makes you better than the field.

This is YOUR range, and you want to fold getting almost 2/1. Folding here getting 1/1 is marginal.

Board: Td 9s 7s 
        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	48.8258 %  	47.73% 	01.10%      { As8s, KsQs, KcTh, 8d7h }
Hand  2:	51.1742 %  	50.08% 	01.10%      { Ts4s }

[GatorJH]

I would agree with TLR here that I don't think even a LAGGARD would check/raise here with just air. Maybe I am too tight, but I would have folded here as well with the thought that I am currently behind in the hand and/or my flush draw may not be good.

[drmcboy]

lol. None of those hands are 'air'.

[GatorJH]

lol. None of those hands are 'air'.

I wasn't saying the hands you listed were air, just making a general observation.

I do think, however, that there are several hands that you don't have listed which could also be feasible in this situation. If you add hands like 86, J8, 97, J10, Q10 what does that do the the odds of winning (I can't get pokerstove to let me put in specific hands or I would do the analysis)?

[Xanadu]

Without a read on conservative post flop play from villain, I like a push. The only hands that give us bad odds are a set or a made straight. Enough people push with any pair here or any straight or flush draw. Also consider that his high pfr% reduces the chances of a set, over pair, or 2 overcard flush draws (which we still don't mind seeing). Those who have done some math here show a very clear call/push. Their assumptions can be quite a bit off and it is still a clear call/push. I wouldn't even bother doing the math on this hand, because I would expect the call/push to be so clear that it isn't worth my time. From my experience the hands I would most expect to see would be an 8 with either a 7,9, or T. You are even getting odds against all the 2 pair hands and are actually a favorite against 97! Push every day and twice on Friday.

[drmcboy]

If you add hands like 86, J8, 97, J10, Q10 what does that do the the odds of winning (I can't get pokerstove to let me put in specific hands or I would do the analysis)?

no real change, we lose some equity but it's still an insta call with the price. Also note I added the set back in as well. What we see here is unless we're able to put villian on exactly the set, straight or FD+two overs (which doesn't make sense given Tai's read) our hand is too big to fold. villian does us a favor shoving here because the only problem with our hand is we don't know what a good turn looks like.

Board: Td 9s 7s 
Dead:  

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	54.5174 %  	53.33% 	01.18%      { 7d7h, As8s, KsQs, 8d6d, KcTh, QsTd, JcTh, Jc8s, 9h7d, 8d7h }
Hand  2:	45.4826 %  	44.30% 	01.18%      { Ts4s }

I think your problem with stove is you have to give it an exact hand (8d7h instead of just putting in 87) and make sure you put a comma right after, it is finicky when you give it mutiple hands. the box is red until it 'likes' what you put in.

[TLR]

This is YOUR range, and you want to fold getting almost 2/1. Folding here getting 1/1 is marginal.

Code:

Board: Td 9s 7s
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.8258 % 47.73% 01.10% { As8s, KsQs, KcTh, 8d7h }
Hand 2: 51.1742 % 50.08% 01.10% { Ts4s }

This is a subset of my range as state
A8s, KQs, KJs, K8s, Axs, AT, KT, QT, JT, 87,98, T9, T8 are all possible

[drmcboy]

poker stove is free and will add some EV to your game.

Board: Td 9s 7s 
Dead:  

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	52.7357 %  	50.91% 	01.83%      { As8s, KsQs, KsJs, Qs8s, Js8s, 8s2s, KcTh, QsTd, JcTh, Tc9d, Th8s, 9d8h, 8c7d }
Hand  2:	47.2643 %  	45.44% 	01.83%      { Ts4s }

[GatorJH]

poker stove is free and will add some EV to your game.

Board: Td 9s 7s 
Dead:  

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	52.7357 %  	50.91% 	01.83%      { As8s, KsQs, KsJs, Qs8s, Js8s, 8s2s, KcTh, QsTd, JcTh, Tc9d, Th8s, 9d8h, 8c7d }
Hand  2:	47.2643 %  	45.44% 	01.83%      { Ts4s }

I have Pokerstove but can't figure out how to put in specific hands.

[drmcboy]

I think your problem with stove is you have to give it an exact hand (8d7h instead of just putting in 87) and make sure you put a comma right after, it is finicky when you give it mutiple hands. the box is red until it 'likes' what you put in.

My reply was to TLR, my reply to you with your range is above.

[GatorJH]

man I gotta start reading ALL of the posts. I am starting to look like a donkaposter.

I tried putting in specific hands (with the suit denominators) and yes it did turn red until I put in both cards but just the first hand remains when I hit enter. I'll keep playing around with it now that I know it is possible. It may even be that I need to register it (although I thought I had already done that).

edit: figured it out. Thanks for the help!!!!

[Sprayed]

Monster draw = get my chips in and laugh if I go broke.

[drmcboy]

also, make sure you don't have spaces, unless it puts them in, it hates spaces, even though it puts them in the results.

[GatorJH]

also, make sure you don't have spaces, unless it puts them in, it hates spaces, even though it puts them in the results.

That's what I discovered. Thanks again for the help.