AK bubble fold

[Da GOAT]

You can see what I was thinking but is this the right type of spot??

Im 8xBB and wouldnt have much FE here. Even if Big stack is bully and playing any two I really am still not dominating enough to call here(im guessing.

PokerStars Game #4442213299: Tournament #22092091, Hold'em No Limit -
Level VII (100/200) - 2006/03/28 - 12:11:22 (ET)
Table '22092091 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: berg_999 (6970 in chips)
Seat 3: CelticUabhar (1643 in chips)
Seat 4: domin333 (3867 in chips)
Seat 5: grinder55 (1020 in chips)
berg_999: posts the ante 25
CelticUabhar: posts the ante 25
domin333: posts the ante 25
grinder55: posts the ante 25
domin333: posts small blind 100
grinder55: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CelticUabhar [Ks Ad]
berg_999: raises 400 to 600
CelticUabhar: folds
domin333: folds
grinder55: folds
berg_999 collected 600 from pot
berg_999: doesn't show hand

Please provide your reasoning in your answers thanks.

[vqc]

this is horrible.

instead of answers I have questions.
Do you think u have the best hand?
What happens if you fold?
What hand are u waiting for to push here?
What happens if u call? (stack sizes, etc.)
What happens if u push?
Do you even care if u dont have FE?
What would u have done if UTG hadnt raised?

[Da GOAT]

Do you think u have the best hand?

More than likely but if he is raising any 2 then lets say he raises T7o which HU im not enough of a fav to risk the bubble.

What happens if you fold?

Im still in with a good chance ITM which is the priority.

What hand are u waiting for to push here?

Im calling here!! Its not a true push coz of the raise. if folded to me I would push.

What happens if u call? (stack sizes, etc.)

I double up near to 2nd highest stack !! but still not gauranteed better than 3rd(bit pessimistic tho)

What happens if u push?

Same as above. Im not really pushing tho, im calling ( its safe to say he is calling my allin so i just consider it that he pushed first.

I answered the last to questions above.

[taipan168]

This is a horrible fold IMO. If you really believe that opp is pushing with any two, you are 65% favourite to win. If you push (and that is the only option with 8x BB), even assuming that opp never folds here (which is not necessarily the case), you get better than 1:1 on your money when you're a 2:1 favourite to win.

The only situations where it would be correct to fold here would be if you KNEW opp would only raise here with AA or KK. Anything else and pot odds dictate a push even opp calls 100% of the time.

[vqc]

U are under the mentality that making it ITM is ur biggest priority, and this is compeltely wrong.

Being tight on the bubble is the thing that every beginning player makes (and even experienced players who arent eeking out the biggest edge), and the thing that good players exploit.

Ur goal in SNG poker is to make the move that is results in the higest amount of positive money equity. USUALLY (but not always) the best way to do this is to play in a manner that will guarantee u FIRST place. Yes, I realize that the only way to make it to first is to first make it ITM, but people who think this way almost always have a high distributino of thirds and seconds, because they always have a very very short chipstack when they go into the money. You have to realize that the structure of SNGs (50% 30% 20% payout) makes it so that coming in first 25% of the time and busting out every other time, will still make u a winning player. Becuase of this, you want to maximize ur first place finishes, and the only way to do this is to maximize ur chip stack as you go into the money, not after.

FOlding this hand here is a result of being afraid of not making it into the money. What you shoudl realize is that getting all ur chips in in this situation will allow u to amass a fair amouint of chips that will give u a higher chance of making it into first place as opposed to just limping ITM.

To clarify some definitions so that we are on the same page here. Pushing is when u put all of u chips into the middle, what other players do is irrelevant to this action. So when i said Push i meant raise an amount that puts all of ur chips in. Calling is when u just match his bet.

Furthermore, villian in this situaiton has to call about 1k more chips, it is not gtd that he would still call in this situation.

And u still havnt really answered my question as to wat hands u would play in this situation. Regardless, I guarantee you that they are a tad too tight.

[fjuanl]

good points VCQ ^^^

i concur

[ilikeaces86]

I had was playing a 215 speed the other day. Blinds were 600/1200 4 handed. UTG hand 62 chips button had 1000 chips and I had 3200 chips, the BB had 15438. It folded to me in the SB and I open folded QQ. Good, or Bad?

[fjuanl]

I had was playing a 215 speed the other day. Blinds were 600/1200 4 handed. UTG hand 62 chips button had 1000 chips and I had 3200 chips, the BB had 15438. It folded to me in the SB and I open folded QQ. Good, or Bad?

lmao

[Da GOAT]

Thanks VGC for the depth in your replies.

Your right in that I am too tight in these bubble situations. I have a 75%+ in the bubble but as you say my play is reflected in my finish distribution which is even enough over the top 3.

Thanks (I appear to of lost sight of focusing on having a chance at 1st)

As a note though if UTG pushed(allin) and short stack had 1 or 2xBB this is a fold yeah??

[taipan168]

As a note though if UTG pushed(allin) and short stack had 1 or 2xBB this is a fold yeah??

Only if both the big stack and the short stack were both all in in front of you. If the stacks were as per your hand, I would call UTG's push. The only time I might think of folding AK if stacks were 6000 (UTG), 5500 (you), 1500 (SB) and 500 (BB), blinds were 200/400 and UTG pushed.

Problem with trying to fold yourself into the money is that if the shortstack doubles up, the bubble stays alive and you've just passed up a good chance to build a nice stack.

[Da GOAT]

Thanks for that taipan.

Cheers for the example to clarify when it is correct to fold.

[Scuba Chuck]

this is horrible.

instead of answers I have questions.
Do you think u have the best hand?
What happens if you fold?
What hand are u waiting for to push here?
What happens if u call? (stack sizes, etc.)
What happens if u push?
Do you even care if u dont have FE?
What would u have done if UTG hadnt raised?

I'll answer:
1) Yes
2) you're letting a close shorty squeeze ITM
3) AA?
4) Calling sucks balls
5) You double up 60% of the time
6) Emotionally I do, logically I don't
7) I don't see how this is germane to the question, but ...shove?

[Scuba Chuck]

This is a horrible fold IMO. If you really believe that opp is pushing with any two, you are 65% favourite to win. If you push (and that is the only option with 8x BB), even assuming that opp never folds here (which is not necessarily the case), you get better than 1:1 on your money when you're a 2:1 favourite to win.

The only situations where it would be correct to fold here would be if you KNEW opp would only raise here with AA or KK. Anything else and pot odds dictate a push even opp calls 100% of the time.

This is terribly poor thinking. What if shorty had one chip?

[Scuba Chuck]

I had was playing a 215 speed the other day. Blinds were 600/1200 4 handed. UTG hand 62 chips button had 1000 chips and I had 3200 chips, the BB had 15438. It folded to me in the SB and I open folded QQ. Good, or Bad?

Is this a serious question?

[vqc]

I had was playing a 215 speed the other day. Blinds were 600/1200 4 handed. UTG hand 62 chips button had 1000 chips and I had 3200 chips, the BB had 15438. It folded to me in the SB and I open folded QQ. Good, or Bad?

Is this a serious question?

it dpeends on the moon.
aces is just a psychopath.

[taipan168]

This is a horrible fold IMO. If you really believe that opp is pushing with any two, you are 65% favourite to win. If you push (and that is the only option with 8x BB), even assuming that opp never folds here (which is not necessarily the case), you get better than 1:1 on your money when you're a 2:1 favourite to win.

The only situations where it would be correct to fold here would be if you KNEW opp would only raise here with AA or KK. Anything else and pot odds dictate a push even opp calls 100% of the time.

This is terribly poor thinking. What if shorty had one chip?

Sorry, I should have clarified:
- Stack sizes as they were in the OP's hand
- Hero has a ROCK SOLID read that UTG never raises with anything other than AA or KK (don't ask me how you'd ever have such a read).

[Scuba Chuck]

Ur goal in SNG poker is to make the move that is results in the higest amount of positive money equity. USUALLY (but not always) the best way to do this is to play in a manner that will guarantee u FIRST place. Yes, I realize that the only way to make it to first is to first make it ITM, but people who think this way almost always have a high distributino of thirds and seconds, because they always have a very very short chipstack when they go into the money. You have to realize that the structure of SNGs (50% 30% 20% payout) makes it so that coming in first 25% of the time and busting out every other time, will still make u a winning player. Becuase of this, you want to maximize ur first place finishes, and the only way to do this is to maximize ur chip stack as you go into the money, not after.

I have a question. Are you saying that playing for first is the same thing as playing in a manner which "results in the higest amount of positive money equity?" Also, who do you know that has a 25% first place distribution? (assuming large sample size of course).

[fasin8ing]

ITM = Im third place mainly ?

[zenbitz]

I had was playing a 215 speed the other day. Blinds were 600/1200 4 handed. UTG hand 62 chips button had 1000 chips and I had 3200 chips, the BB had 15438. It folded to me in the SB and I open folded QQ. Good, or Bad?

ICM!
I say BB calls with KX, AX, pp, throw in SC 67+, any 2 broadway

Damn, I don't think I could open fold QQ though. I might complete the SB!

[Renton]

Push. Even if you are flipping against a small pair, the humongous blinds make this hugely +EV. Plus chances are good that villain as an A or a K in his hand which would make you a huge favorite. Good big stack players are loose raisers on the bubble because they know players will make weak folds like you did. Any ace or king hand is probably in villain's raising range.

[vqc]

Ur goal in SNG poker is to make the move that is results in the higest amount of positive money equity. USUALLY (but not always) the best way to do this is to play in a manner that will guarantee u FIRST place. Yes, I realize that the only way to make it to first is to first make it ITM, but people who think this way almost always have a high distributino of thirds and seconds, because they always have a very very short chipstack when they go into the money. You have to realize that the structure of SNGs (50% 30% 20% payout) makes it so that coming in first 25% of the time and busting out every other time, will still make u a winning player. Becuase of this, you want to maximize ur first place finishes, and the only way to do this is to maximize ur chip stack as you go into the money, not after.

I have a question. Are you saying that playing for first is the same thing as playing in a manner which "results in the higest amount of positive money equity?" Also, who do you know that has a 25% first place distribution? (assuming large sample size of course).

What I said in my OP was:
USUALLY (but not always) the best way to do this is to play in a manner that will guarantee u FIRST place.

I think its safe to say that playing for first generally has a the byproduct of resulting in plays that are of hte highest +$EV. But not always.

I know of no one that has a 25% first place distritbution over a large sample size. I was just commenting on the fact that it is possible to only be ITM 25% of hte time but still be a winner.

[baudib]

the other day I won an $11 at Pokerstars; I was the big stack and started pushing about every third hand when it got to be four-way, basically because they let me and two opps TOLD ME they were folding hands like 77 and AJ.

[givememyleg]

I posted a nearly the same situation here recently, and you have to push. In my situation, the blinds were 100/200, and the shortstack had 300 chips, I had 1800... The chip leader rasied, same here, and I was on the button with AK. After thinking about this for very long and reading what everyone else has said, you HAVE to push. There is no reason not to. Folding here is sick and you will not have a better spot (most likely) to double up. You need more chips here. Lets say he does call with a hand like 10J, and ends up winning, you can't think what you did was wrong because in the long run, it is +++. One result should not affect your judgement.

[shysti]

ITM = Im third place mainly ?

seriously? ITM = in the money

[Scuba Chuck]

I think its safe to say that playing for first generally has a the byproduct of resulting in plays that are of hte highest +$EV. But not always.

Do you really believe this? Can you explain to me a situation where some think that playing for first is better than playing for third. Yet playing for third is more +$EV than playing for first?

It's been my generally opinion that the concept for playing for first means that we've not always considering expected value. So, saying that they mean the same thing, to me, is a little new/different.

Certainly, the steeper the payout structure, the more playing for first matters. And the flatter the structure, the less is it's significance. While 50/30/20 is a generally steep payout structure, it's not hugely steep like an MTT is. And the old Step 4s, where the payout included top 4.

That being said, I think that some play that is +$EV, DOES mean that sometimes we are playing for third. It doesn't mean we're giving up on first, but we're trying to maximize our long term expected value first.


(I should add that here, in this hand, it's a push, and it's not even close).

[vqc]

I think its safe to say that playing for first generally has a the byproduct of resulting in plays that are of hte highest +$EV. But not always.

Do you really believe this? Can you explain to me a situation where some think that playing for first is better than playing for third. Yet playing for third is more +$EV than playing for first?

It's been my generally opinion that the concept for playing for first means that we've not always considering expected value. So, saying that they mean the same thing, to me, is a little new/different.

That being said, I think that some play that is +$EV, DOES mean that sometimes we are playing for third. It doesn't mean we're giving up on first, but we're trying to maximize our long term expected value first.

Scuba im not sure we disagree on anything.

I remmeber way back when, when ICM wasnt very well developed and it was hard to quantify chip values. Back then the idea of "play for first" was the general sentiment becuase it drove u in a direction where aggression was key and this was what brought home hte bacon.

There have been hands here where peoples advice have been "SHOVE, plAY FOR FIRST GO FOR THE WIN, I ALWAYS GO FOR THE WIN", when folding would have been the correct play. This is a result of people not looking at the numbers. I have ALWAYS hated the phrase "play for first". ALways always always. And I have made that clear many a time.

And again i never said that "play for first" = highest EV. The word GENERALLY carries a lot of weight in my original statement. THe point I was tyring to make is that if beginning players "played for first" instead of "played for 3rd" and then WORKED FROM THERE, they would be much better off than "play for ITM" and then working from there.

[dan]

push AI, play to win not to money, dont be a pussy.

[givememyleg]

lol nice fold lol

[Da GOAT]

legs I hate you now.

Had an ounce of respect there but its vanished, its gone

[KoRnholio]

OP: If the short stack was a bit shorter and/or your stack was a bit bigger I could see a fold here. But as it stands, the short stack isn't guaranteed to go out next and your chip count isn't very high. I'd raise all in here. You might even have some fold equity if the villain is on total trash (quite possible IMO).

I had was playing a 215 speed the other day. Blinds were 600/1200 4 handed. UTG hand 62 chips button had 1000 chips and I had 3200 chips, the BB had 15438. It folded to me in the SB and I open folded QQ. Good, or Bad?

Now this is a doozy. A fold here and you can fold your way into 3rd and likely into 2nd and end up heads up against the big stack at a ~5:1 chip disadvantage. Raise and villain folds, you add over 50% to your stack. Raise+win and you'll more than double your chips.

I don't think there's anything wrong with playing it safe and folding. However if I have a read that the big stack here is tight enough to fold an ace/decent king in this spot, I probably push. I suck at running numbers, but I'd suspect that taking a 70-30 shot (QQ vs one overcard) is -EV when you take into account the payout structure.

[taipan168]

Who bumped the fucking old post in the first place?

(Ummm...that would be givememyleg who is desperately trying to ensure that I don't pass him in post count )

[Da GOAT]

OP: If the short stack was a bit shorter and/or your stack was a bit bigger I could see a fold here. But as it stands, the short stack isn't guaranteed to go out next and your chip count isn't very high. I'd raise all in here. You might even have some fold equity if the villain is on total trash (quite possible IMO).

I had was playing a 215 speed the other day. Blinds were 600/1200 4 handed. UTG hand 62 chips button had 1000 chips and I had 3200 chips, the BB had 15438. It folded to me in the SB and I open folded QQ. Good, or Bad?

Now this is a doozy. A fold here and you can fold your way into 3rd and likely into 2nd and end up heads up against the big stack at a ~5:1 chip disadvantage. Raise and villain folds, you add over 50% to your stack. Raise+win and you'll more than double your chips.

I don't think there's anything wrong with playing it safe and folding. However if I have a read that the big stack here is tight enough to fold an ace/decent king in this spot, I probably push. I suck at running numbers, but I'd suspect that taking a 70-30 shot (QQ vs one overcard) is -EV when you take into account the payout structure.

ok thanks

[Da GOAT]

Who bumped the fucking old post in the first place?

(Ummm...that would be givememyleg who is desperately trying to ensure that I don't pass him in post count )

just stop, it is inevitable that I will pass you both out anyway.

Im giving poker up just so i can post full time

[givememyleg]

ps - i'm kidding goat

[Da GOAT]

ps - i'm kidding goat

4got to add to my reply.

feel sorry for kornholio for actually spending time analysing the hand. , he mustnt of known how old it was.

Plus i shud of had the foresight to figure someone would bump it.

[Xanadu]

I know this is an old post, but I can't help but be dismayed that noone is addressing this question by actually analyzing the situation, but just responding with what they think is right.

First, I'd like to say nice fold! I went through the ICM calcs with a couple of simplifying assumptions. First, if you push, everyone else folds and villain always calls (it would be a big mistake for him to fold here getting 2:1, unless he has say 2 unsuited unpaired cards 5 or lower in which case he probably didn't raise in the first place). Second, if you fold, the SB will fold and the small stack calls 20% of the time and wins half of those (this actually has a negligible effect on the numbers over everyone folding, but that's how I did it).

And the question to be answered, which I am surprised no one has mentioned because it is really the only question that counts here ... How loose must the big stack's range be here for me to call? The answer? Even if he is pushing any 2, you should fold. You need 70% equity here to break even ICM wise. AKo is only a little over 65% against a random hand. What can you call with if he is truly pushing any 2? Only pocket pairs 9s and higher. If he is pushing a more reasonable 70%, you need TT, and if pushing 50%, you need JJ.

Oh, and BTW, on aces QQ fold, if opponent calls with 50% here, the fold is correct as well, giving an EV of .2959 compared with .2859 for pushing.

[taipan168]

Hopefully this is the last post in this thread and that it won't get bumped again in another 8 months, but Xanadu is right - this is actually an easy fold once you put it into SNGPT assuming that UTG will never fold to a push.

If UTG raises 100% and never folds to a push, pushing (calling) here is -1.1% EV. The call range if UTG raises 100% is 99+. This is interesting because I thought this (the AK fold situation) would only happen if Hero was the second stack rather than a short stack, but the numbers are the numbers.

Looks like Goat isn't the only player who has learned a lot in the past 8 months!

[Da GOAT]

If UTG raises 100% and never folds to a push, pushing (calling) here is -1.1% EV. The call range if UTG raises 100% is 99+. This is interesting because I thought this (the AK fold situation) would only happen if Hero was the second stack rather than a short stack, but the numbers are the numbers.

very very unlikely opp is raising 100% here, this is either a $5 or $10 Regular (oh back in the day). I would say opp range is more straightforward and less adapting to the stack situation. ie say 88+, A8o+,A8s+,KQ+. how does AK fair against these. for all other borderline hand like PP55-77 for example they would probably limp PF.

[givememyleg]

I'll still never believe this is a fold.

[taipan168]

If UTG raises 100% and never folds to a push, pushing (calling) here is -1.1% EV. The call range if UTG raises 100% is 99+. This is interesting because I thought this (the AK fold situation) would only happen if Hero was the second stack rather than a short stack, but the numbers are the numbers.

very very unlikely opp is raising 100% here, this is either a $5 or $10 Regular (oh back in the day). I would say opp range is more straightforward and less adapting to the stack situation. ie say 88+, A8o+,A8s+,KQ+. how does AK fair against these. for all other borderline hand like PP55-77 for example they would probably limp PF.

Against that range, assuming they always call your push (which they would if you assume the range is tighter) then pushing over is -2.4% EV.

[givememyleg]

Seat 5: grinder55 (1020 in chips)

Is that why it's calculating -ev? (btw I have no idea how the program works).

I think his range should be much much wider. Even if he is stupid it doesn't take a lot to realize you have the big stack so be an asshole/spew.

How can you seriously fold here?

[Xanadu]

Seat 5: grinder55 (1020 in chips)

Is that why it's calculating -ev? (btw I have no idea how the program works).

I think his range should be much much wider. Even if he is stupid it doesn't take a lot to realize you have the big stack so be an asshole/spew.

How can you seriously fold here?

It's -EV even when he is raising any 2 as long as you have no FE (and you really don't have any FE) By the program, I assume you mean SNGPT? I don't have it, but I believe it just uses the ICM with the hand ranges you put in for opponents. The ICM just assumes each person's chance of finishing in 1st is proportional to their chip stack, and then the calculations are done along the same lines for 2nd and 3rd. So, let's look at how the short stack effects all this with 4 players left.

You have about a 3:2 advantage over shorty in chips. If we were to assume that you and shorty will take 3rd and 4th, your equity here would be your 60% chance of placing 3rd times the 20% prize, or 12% of the prize fund. You have about 11% of total chips, so your chances of first are about 11%, times 50% prize is 5.5% of the prize fund. If you double up, your chance of first goes to 22%, or 11% of the prize fund. Doubling up, with respect to your first place winnings, gainst you 5.5% of the prize fund. But this is small compared to your 12% expected share from 3rd place, which will drop to 0 if you lose this hand. You are risking 12% of the fund to gain 5.5%

It turns out here, that the equity you want to protect comes much more from your chance at 3rd place than your chance at first. Your chance at 3rd is substantial, while your chance at 1st is relatively remote. Most of your equity in this tournament comes from your 3rd place finishes. You need a very favorable situation here to risk that 3rd place equity.

Another problem some of you might have with getting your heads around this is the way hand values change at a short table. You might think AK or AKs are truly great hands, and yes they are very strong, but 99 is better than both of them. Only TT+ and maybe 99 are the real monsters at a short table. The value of the pocket pairs starts to drop off rapidly below 99. 88 is very strong still, and 77 is stong-very strong, but 66 drops below most of the good high card hands, and below that you would much rather be pushing than calling a push.

Another thing going on here is the lack of fold equity. Reverse positions with villain, and AK is a push. It's not that you can't play AK here. It's that you can't play it without fold equity. The numbers say you need about a 70% edge here. AK doesn't have that edge over any range.

[Sprayed]

If you run it in SNGPT as a call since you effectively do not have FE, it is definitely a fold. Nice fold GOAT.

[givememyleg]

Then what is our pushing range here? JJ+? QQ+?

If he is really playing any 2 and calling (I agree I doubt he is folding) you have a 65% edge. Should we even care that we have no FE here? It seems to me that folding is mega weak and we are missing out on a great opportunity that we might not get again. Who is to say shorty is going to bust? All he needs is one double up to pass you in chips.

I do not agree that a chance at first is remote. If we shove here and double up, that puts the big stack at 5327, us at 3636, the med stack at 3742, and the shorty at 795. Assuming we have an edge over the table (which we should at a low buyin sng) this greatly increases your chance of making it not only ITM, but a good shot at 1st-2nd. Maybe my reasoning isn't sound because granted, if you do push and lose you get $0. However, if you fold, how does your chance to make it ITM increase?

[Xanadu]

If you have an edge over the table it is even more important to fold ...

And I already posted the pushing ranges that correspond to opponent's raising ranges earlier in the thread. If he is raising any 2 it's 99+ only.

[givememyleg]

If you have an edge over the table it is even more important to fold ..

I disagree.