5/10 hand that confused me

[gabe]

UTG is solid, ive been playing with him but we haven't had any big pots except some preflop allins AA v KK and two AK v QQ. button is huge crazy fish so UTG could be value betting KQ or a set or something, but i'm not sure if he would do that with me in the hand. thoughts on river?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($2373)
UTG ($1661.65)
MP ($653)
CO ($1733.95)
Button ($1221)
Hero ($1752.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, T.
UTG raises to $30, 2 folds, Button calls $30, Hero calls $25, 1 fold.

Flop: ($100) 7, 9, K (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $70, Button calls $70, Hero calls $70.

Turn: ($310) 6 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $220, Button calls $220, Hero calls $220.

River: ($970) Q (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $1341.65 (All-In), Button folds, Hero ...

[Warpe]

Would he shove with the b/d flush? If you don't think he would then you have to call, imo. Or would he think you'd think that?

[Galapogos]

AdKd?

[gabe]

Would he shove with the b/d flush? If you don't think he would then you have to call, imo. Or would he think you'd think that?

yea i think he would because that other guy is bad, but im not sure if hes shoving enough hands to make it a call

[drmcboy]

Would he shove with the b/d flush? If you don't think he would then you have to call, imo.

rofl

[Galapogos]

Would he shove with the b/d flush? If you don't think he would then you have to call, imo. Or would he think you'd think that?

yea i think he would because that other guy is bad, but im not sure if hes shoving enough hands to make it a call

I doubt it, he has seen a few draws complete on this board through the hand. He must think someone hit and will most likely not give him credit for the b/d flush. But then again you guys get a lot trickier up there so I'm probably way off.

[Warpe]

Would he shove with the b/d flush? If you don't think he would then you have to call, imo.

rofl

It's a serious question. I'm asking for gabe's opinion of villain.

[Fnord]

I can't imagine folding here. So few hands beat you and it's not too much bigger than a PSB.

KQ and sets are well within his range.

[drmcboy]

sorry, I thought you were leveling. This is what made me laugh:

If you don't think he would then you have to call, imo.

I think Gabe mastered board reading at 2/4.

I call, btw, but I always fall for (slightly) over value bets. Have you seen him raise connectors?

[gabe]

Have you seen him raise connectors?

not UTG, but im playing lots of tables so cant say for certain if he does or not

[Lukie]

Would he shove with the b/d flush? If you don't think he would then you have to call, imo.

rofl

It's a serious question. I'm asking for gabe's opinion of villain.

I think he was laughing because, if gabe knew that the guy wouldn't shove a b/d diamond draw, then he'd effectively have the nuts, making it an insta-call.

[gabe]

what if he bets $500? do i push then?

[drmcboy]

no, you switch to MTTs, my head is exploding.

but I think you should push based on all the hands I see you post where you make those crazy "he can't call without the nuts" pushes. Either he'll pay off with lots of hands you beat because he's seen it too much, or he hasn't seen it yet, calls with the nuts but sees you had a hand and you'll make the money back in an hour moving him off everything except the nuts.

[Irisheyes]

I think you have to call because your hand is so concealed. No way he thinks you are as strong as you actually are.

If he bets $500 I put him on a weaker hand then if he pushes. It means he is scared of your play sonewhat.

[gabe]

Would he shove with the b/d flush? If you don't think he would then you have to call, imo.

rofl

It's a serious question. I'm asking for gabe's opinion of villain.

I think he was laughing because, if gabe knew that the guy wouldn't shove a b/d diamond draw, then he'd effectively have the nuts, making it an insta-call.

so you have no opinion on the hand?

[Galapogos]

I think you have to call because your hand is so concealed. No way he thinks you are as strong as you actually are.

Gabe has been calling OOP this whole hand and now there's draws all over the board. Villian is probably expecting Button to call knowing this makes a huge pot for Gabe to look at when the decision comes to him again.

I really don't see how he can be making this play without a very strong hand.

[gabe]

I really don't see how he can be making this play without a very strong hand.

yea, we know hes not bluffing

[Warpe]

Does anyone lead the river here?

[Galapogos]

I really don't see how he can be making this play without a very strong hand.

yea, we know hes not bluffing

Sorry, I didn't make that too clear. Not saying it's not a bluff, I'm saying he has a flush or at the very least your same hand.

[DaHorror]

I would take a river overbet here to mean
(1) I'm bluffing/have a weak hand + scare card, go away
(2) Standard overbet looks like a bluff but is the nuts line
(3) I have a very strong (possibly concealed) hand that I can't get away from if I bet and am reraised, and a push gives me the most FE against hands that may beat me but don't beat a flush (like his set of 9s vs. a straight)

I would say that #1 is on the very low end of probability, #2 next highest and #3 after...so call it 10%, 50%, 40%.

The sucky thing is that the turn doesn't give a good enough indication of his hand strength as it's easily possible that it improved his hand via an improved draw.

I'm wondering though...I would think he would expect to be reraised on the turn if he was up against a 2-pair or set hand...so the fact that he wasn't may build his confidence that he is not up against one of those...and certainly he could have 99/77/66 here...it's almost as if he's hoping that one of the other 2 players in the hand have KQ and will call his river push with that hand.

Sheez I'm waffling bad on this one...probably due a lot to confusion over the level I play at vs. yours...I wouldn't expect to see much but a flush pushing this river, AKd or somesuch...but I would imagine that doesn't hold true at 5/10.

To add even more confusion, since I've rationalized this into a 50/50 for another $1350 into a $2200 pot...your odds are close enough to make either call or fold acceptable...I just can't frickin decide arrrrggggh! The conservative side of me says 'fold' and the 'I call BS' side says call lol.

Sadly, leading the river doesn't change much as far as helping you figure out whether or not he has a flush since he is still just as capable of reraising with a hand that you beat. It would make an odds-alone call easier I guess.

I am curious...did you not lead the river because you figure that 2-pair/sets always take a value bet line there and you could reraise? Or is it because you wanted to further guage his hand strength based on bet size/hesitation before you decided whether or not you had the best hand?

[Renton]

why did u check the river? I know its "too straight forward for a solid regular" but I think he checks back a lot, so i'd bet.

[Genitruc]

ummm as played it s almost impossible to know what to do

it s unlikely for either of you to have the flush so I can def see him value-betting a set or a split pot with same hand as you. but this is similar to Lukie's situation vs. Lyric (where lyric had runner-runner flush) in that since it's more weird for him to have the flush it's a better overbet...

Have you ever seen him overbet bluff the river before 3-way? After you checking river he's prob not worried at all about you, just hoping fish will call. Through this lens, it appears it's an easier fold since he'll often be hoping that fish made straight/2pair/lower flush?

Btw I like 500 lead on river here

[gabe]

Have you ever seen him overbet bluff the river before 3-way?

i know its standard to ask these type of questions in all hands posted, but i thought it was obvious that i would have said that if i had

[bigred]

Op is called down by two players on two streets. What will op put Gabe and BB on?

Set or draw are my bets. I don't see a player slowplaying two pair on this board. The OE draws on flop, 8T and TJ hit on turn and river. Op has to be cognizant of these. So then we have to decide what op has.

I would say pps, strong aces like AK and AQ . Gabe says he hasn't seen anything loose of op but connectors could be possible. I think the turn strength in a 3 handed pot helps narrow down ops hand to most likely KK 99 77, AK of diamond redraw, or possibly 8T. I wouldn't fire TJ again on turn from UTG but it could be a small possibility.

Now back to what Gabe and other op has. Set or draw imo. If it's a set for op, like KK, he could be hoping to get a set over set call with huge river bet. My gut tells me op doesn't have the straight but if he does I say him and gabe are splitting.

Honestly though, I put op on KK or AK of diamonds. I'm probably way off.

[Alibi]

I don't see why sets overbet here because many better hands are calling.

[yorib]

Would you fold JTd?

I think he has AdKx or AAd, or KKd and figures that noone hit the flush draw.

[aislephive]

God, such a sick spot. I think this is a call, though. I'm leading this river though most likely. Really curious to hear results, though.

[Warpe]

Gabe would never fold this.

[zenbitz]

This is one of those hands that appear in books and famous NL expert author says "The only hand that makes sense is$)*(%$&)(@()#( NO CARRIER

[gabe]

I'm pretty sure gabe folded.

wrong!

[Renton]

lol gabe never folds here

[Warpe]

I'm pretty sure gabe folded.

wrong!

I stand corrected

[Genitruc]

ummm prop bets on results?

I don't know results but I'd be willing to set the following odds :

Split : 4-1

Villain has set : 5-1

Villain has AA with Ad (omaha bluff) : 4-1

Villain has AdKd : 2.5-1

Villain has non-nut flush : 3.5-1

Air/random 2 pair : 8-1

Any takers?

gabe you can't bet!

[gabe]

hm.....someone take some action!

[Alibi]

AdKd?

[Genitruc]

AdKd?

pfft such a boring bet... COMON YOU'RE GETTING 8-1 ON AIR BABY!

[gabe]

haha......

genitruc, ill give you action on any of the lines you posted. just pick one and the amount you want to put on it and ill post results.

[Genitruc]

gimme 15$ on j10

you're gp333 on stars for when I ship the $$$ to you right?

[bdawg56kg]

I think the key is that he shoved AFTER you checked to him on the river, which makes his range a lot wider imo. I can definitely see him value pushing KQ, set, or T8 looking for the fish to pay him off. If he shoves before you act on the river, then I think that changes things a lot.

Also, with the fish in the picture, both of you know that there's little chance either of you will get out of line, so you both should be playing relatively straight-forward poker, and nothing too tricky. Knowing this, I think he assumes you make a move on the turn with a set, and probably assumes you don't check river if you hit bd flush. Given all this, I think it points to a call.

Is pf standard? I know you want to take the fishes money, but I can't imagine this call being anything more than slightly +ev.

[jackvance]

I put UTG squarely on QQ.

[gabe]

i called, he had A5d. genitruc you didnt even include this possibility in your book...ship the $15 !

[Genitruc]

damn no wonder you took my action

[gabe]

yea im a hustler lol