Push, Call or Fold.....?

[kevster]

Bit of a mad hand this. Blinds are 50/100. Someone raises to 300 and three people call. I'm in SB with AQs.

The 3rd and 4th callers are loose. I've seen them show down crap and make some silly plays. No real reads on the raiser or the first caller but the table is generally loose - like this hand!

[Dec 14 08:19:02] : Hand Start.
[Dec 14 08:19:02] : Seat 1 : shapeshift has $4,160
[Dec 14 08:19:02] : Seat 2 : Toby83 has $3,310
[Dec 14 08:19:02] : Seat 3 : GsMoney has $1,490
[Dec 14 08:19:02] : Seat 4 : TRIPS-2WIN has $2,320
[Dec 14 08:19:02] : Seat 5 : kevcastle has $1,220
[Dec 14 08:19:02] : Seat 6 : RawHead Rex has $1,640
[Dec 14 08:19:02] : Seat 8 : T-Mariolles has $1,720
[Dec 14 08:19:02] : Seat 9 : MarChonelo has $2,140
[Dec 14 08:19:02] : TRIPS-2WIN is the dealer.
[Dec 14 08:19:02] : kevcastle posted small blind.
[Dec 14 08:19:02] : RawHead Rex posted big blind.
[Dec 14 08:19:02] : Game [13] started with 8 players.
[Dec 14 08:19:02] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[Dec 14 08:19:02] : Seat 5 : kevcastle has Qs As
[Dec 14 08:19:06] : T-Mariolles called 100 and raised 200
[Dec 14 08:19:13] : MarChonelo called 300
[Dec 14 08:19:22] : shapeshift folded.
[Dec 14 08:19:23] : Toby83 called 300
[Dec 14 08:19:25] : GsMoney folded.
[Dec 14 08:19:26] : TRIPS-2WIN called 300
[Dec 14 08:19:36] : kevcastle ??

My thought process against each option.....

1. Call - I'll be in push/fold territory and OOP so if I'm going for it maybe I should just push.

2. Push - There's surely a big pair out there somewhere (prob. raiser or caller).

3. Fold - Cracking odds on a nice hand.

Help!!!

[TLR]

Lets analyse all alternatives:
Push - EP's raise indicates probably a strong hand TT+, AK/AQ
callers may have anything but mid-low pair is definitly a possibility.
If you push you will probably get 1-2 callers, and you either flip or behind.

Calling: You definitily have the odds to call. You are on borderline push/fold, but you can still call.
I would not be very thrilled about Axx flop, Qxx flop is good, 3 low cards with a flush draw is good.

Folding: I think its too weak given the pot odds you have.

I think I call here and erevaluate postflop

[Da GOAT]

I think I call here and erevaluate postflop

no chance of me calling off 200 of a 1200 to see a flop vs so many. im pushing all sine odds are well there anyway.

folding is way too weak with 6xBB

[TLR]

I am definitly pushing AK here, I am not thrilled about pushing AQ here

[Da GOAT]

I am definitly pushing AK here, I am not thrilled about pushing AQ here

true but i dont think we have a choice

[kevster]

Interesting difference of opinion guys. Anyone else wanna comment?

[taipan168]

I am shoving this. Say all the cold callers fold and the original raiser calls, quite a likely outcome. You push 1170 chips to potentially win 2270 chips. Even if UTG has something like TT or JJ you are getting more than the right price. The only hands we are fearing in this case are QQ-AA and AK.

Plus there is the (admittedly small) possibility that everybody folds and you pick up 1350 in chips.

[kevster]

Thanks for the replies guys.

I ruled out the fold pretty quickly and after some thought, I called. I did this thinking that I could still get away from the hand on the flop and be left with a decent stack that I could still push with.

AQ came on the flop, I got it all in and tripled up. Great result but looking back, I tend to think that a push would have been better here. If AQ hadn't of come I think I'd have been in a tough spot.

[Da GOAT]

Thanks for the replies guys.

I ruled out the fold pretty quickly and after some thought, I called. I did this thinking that I could still get away from the hand on the flop and be left with a decent stack that I could still push with.

AQ came on the flop, I got it all in and tripled up. Great result but looking back, I tend to think that a push would have been better here. If AQ hadn't of come I think I'd have been in a tough spot.

if just an ace or Q came you must go allin.

BTW i dont figure having 5xBB left as a decent stack. granted most stack are quite small and relatively equal to yours but they are just as desparate to push as you.

[kevster]

if just an ace or Q came you must go allin.

BTW i dont figure having 5xBB left as a decent stack. granted most stack are quite small and relatively equal to yours but they are just as desparate to push as you.

Thanks Goat.

BTW, a call and then a fold on the flop would've left me with 9xBB. Still not a decent stack but not completely desperate, hence my original predicament.[/quote]

[Da GOAT]

wow i wasnt correctted till now.

that whole call 100 raise 200 thing put me off.

hmm i still push

push>fold>call

[drmcboy]

clear push. with all the money in there you aren't even that upset to see QQ or KK.

[Xanadu]

Well, what sucks is that if you push, with that much money in the pot, it is likely to be 3 or 4 way and you should be behind opener's range. It's probably at least even to push, but I think it is better to call. I like the call because you have a great multi-way hand, and unless BB pushes, it will be 5 or 6 to the flop. There are a lot of flops you can just fold on, and a lot of flops you will like. I think this is a good spot to just call and play some post-flop poker. If you hit your hand, you will pretty much triple up if only 1 stays with you, and you could get really lucky and come out of this with close to half the chips at the table.

[drmcboy]

my post assumes opps are not functionally retarded and won't cold call twice for half their stack. YMMV.

[Zee Devee]

YMMV.

What's YMMV?

By the way I would think pushing and calling here are pretty much the same EV in the long run, the potential for both scenarios can get you a lot of chips.

[drmcboy]

your mileage may vary.