Starfleet Selections: NFL Week 14

[ensign_lee]

KC -3 (+105)
1 unit at Skybook

Pinny lean is on the Chiefs, where they are not offering the best price out there, and yet are hanging a BAL +3 (-111) bet while everyone else is at best hanging a (-120) on that, if not (-125). Plus, it's the Chiefs at Arrowhead in December. Come on.

MIN Moneyline (+105)
1 unit at Pinnacle

Minnesota, despite burning holes in my pockets with their crappyass play, are still better than the lions. They went from a favorite to an underdog, but the public hasn't taken a side in this game. That means the sharps are liking Detroit, maybe??? But the sportsbooks usually give a big FU to players who bet to the point that favorites turn into dogs, with the original favorites winning (at least in my mind). Therefore, small play on Minnesota.

Houston pk (-110)
1 units at Skybook

Public is all over Vince Young's nuts and Tennessee's nuts. It's disgusting. If Houston turns to a dog tomorrow, this will definitely be a three unit play.

GO TEXANS!!! The Texans are NOT that bad and Tennessee is still a terrible team. So they luckboxed their way into two wins over the Giants (more like the Giants were like 'here; have the game') and the Colts (ok; they actually had a pretty damn good game here).

Absolute Bullshit that 80% or so of the public is on Tennessee. GO TEXANS!!!

JAC +1.5 (-105)
3 units at Skybook

JAC Moneyline (-103.1)
3 units at Matchbook

Jacksonville was built to beat the Colts. Period. End of sentence. Their entire offseasons of the last half decade or so: their drafts, their free agent signings, their coaches philosophies: all geared to beat the Colts.

Jacksonville has been a monster at home this year with the exception of the Texans game. But the Texans and Jags just hate each other so much that all logic gets thrown out the window for those games. They handled the cowboys, shut out the Stellers, laid big ass whoopings on the Jets and the Titans; but for the Texans game, they'd be undefeated.

And to top it all off, the Colts have the public backing at right around 70-75%. The line started at IND -1.5 and has now fallen to pk or -1 at most shops (more the former rather than the latter). Now, I know movement from -1.5 to pk isn't that significant in terms of actual value, but the fact that it moved the opposite direction that you would think is significant.

It slightly hurts to be putting a big play on Jacksonville, since they're our big rivals and all, but they will be facing the Colts, so that makes it a little better. This is my make or break game of the week.

---
Note: haven't yet bet all these yet. Will hit them in the morning. Just wanted to let y'all know where I was at.

[ensign_lee]

So far, my bets have panned out like this:

KC -3 (+105)
1 unit at Pinnacle

MIN Moneyline (+105)
1 unit at Pinnacle

HOU -1.5 (+101.9)
2 units at Matchbook

JAC +1 (+100)
3 units at Bodog

JAC Moneyline (-105.1)
3 units at Matchbook

TB Moneyline (+175)
1 unit at Pinnacle

For the last TB bet, there are just a shit ton of people on Atlanta, a team that is just so inconsistent it's amazing. TB may lose here, but I think they win here enough times to make this profitable. Plus, Tampa Bay has a history of being able to shut down Michael Vick with their defensive schemes.

[ensign_lee]

One game up for the late slate:

Denver +8 (-110)
2 units at Skybook

Denver Moneyline (+294)
1 unit at Matchbook

Denver is not as horrible as everyone is making them out to be. They still have a lights out defense in spite of everything, so giving them 8 points in a divisional rivalry matchup I don't think is the smartest thing ever.

And I think they at least have a 50/50 shot at winning this game, so the +294 means they only have to win this game barely more than once in four tries to make this break even. I'll take that.

[ensign_lee]

About broke even for this week; think I lost like a half unit of juice. Damn.