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  1. #1

    Default ShortStacked Begineers Picks

    We'll I'm new here, but I've been reading what you have guys have been posting. I'm here to post what I'm doing. I'd also like mention that with the position I have myself in and what I'm doing is EXTREMELY HIGH-RISK. I have a horrible bank roll. I start myself off with $20 and now I've managed to get myself up to $59.

    I understand you should only bet with 0.5% to 5% of your bankroll however I bet with 10%-50% of my bank roll at one time. This is why I'm partly here to learn and post as to what I'm doing.

    I'm also a moneyline type of guy. Currently my money is in sportsbetting.com. I'm looking to change to pinnacle as they seem to have better odds for me. I'm also going to say that I dont want to make gambling a passive income more of a fun thing to do. Thats why when I transfer to pinnacle I will take $30 out of my total with $20 being my initial deposit. Made $10 yeah! As for my begining hobby in this I'm happy. A penny earned is a penny made to me right now. Not into high stakes yet, but I'd love to get there with my profited bankroll.

    I'm also curious to hear what others have to say about what I've done. Maybe some thoughts on why it works/doesnt work. My betting patterns tend to be conservative and I make the occasion risky bet. I would not recommend doing as I do as maybe I've gotten lucky. But if you chose to follow my picks don't get mad if you lose some.

    Ill post my picks later today after my last final.

    Cavaliers(Cleveland) -360
    Nuggets(Denver) -150


    1-1 nuggets didn't pull threw like I thought they would.
  2. #2
    Welcome to the forum!!

    Other than that I don't have much to say other than if you want to get respect for yourself and your picks from the other people in SB forum that you should properly BR yourself and not write contradictory posts as the one above. No pick is conservative if it's for 1/2 your roll. Im assuming that's what you did on last night's games, 10 bucks on each. Haven't seen the results of those games but it's typically a better practice in the NBA to m/l the underdogs not the favorites.

    Good luck and welcome again
    'spenda
  3. #3
    Thanks for the reply. I'm actually using $5s as my standard bet. I won one of the two last night, which is bad, but apparently the nuggets couldnt hold them.

    Pistons(Detroit) -1.5
    Suns(Phoenix) -140
    Mavericks(Dallas) -360


    3-0
  4. #4
    There can be value in playing moneyline favorites, but with such a small roll you won't be making much money. I mean, tonight you're betting $5 on Dallas to win $1.38, right? I'm not saying you don't have an edge on that bet, I have no idea, just that you're risking a large portion of your BR to win a tiny bit of money.

    Have you thought about bonus whoring (casino & poker) to increase your roll so that you can afford to make $5 plays? In any case, BOL to you.

    BTW, I really like the Pistons tonight. I'll be on that too.
  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by zook
    There can be value in playing moneyline favorites, but with such a small roll you won't be making much money. I mean, tonight you're betting $5 on Dallas to win $1.38, right? I'm not saying you don't have an edge on that bet, I have no idea, just that you're risking a large portion of your BR to win a tiny bit of money.

    Have you thought about bonus whoring (casino & poker) to increase your roll so that you can afford to make $5 plays? In any case, BOL to you.

    BTW, I really like the Pistons tonight. I'll be on that too.
    Yes I do realize the value of playing moneyline favorites. Sadly like you see with the dallas game tonight you don't win a lot, but I've found I tend to win more than lose so I'm not stopping that. You are correct I wont be making much money either. I'm not here to strike it rich just here to keep building the BR, safely ( if gambling can even be called that).

    I have heard of bonus whoring I just figured it was a lot easier to do with poker than sports betting, but I'll look into that link. Thank you.

    Edit: on the bonus whoring subject how is that done? Just jump from site to use till I use up the bonus then move to another one? The link you gave me just goes to the poker bonuses?

    I also like the pistons tonight. I've been watching your picks and they seem to be pretty stable. I just don't have as much money as you to put up to six games a night. Thanks for the suggestions.
  6. #6
    Sorry, that link is automatic every time you type "bonus" at this site. If I type it with a zero, then no link: B0nus. Yeah, I meant poker bonus whoring, not sportsbook bonus whoring. Sportsbook bonuses are a lot harder to clear than poker bonuses. You do play online poker, right? Hard to imagine you'd end up at this site if you didn't.
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by zook
    Sorry, that link is automatic every time you type "bonus" at this site. If I type it with a zero, then no link: B0nus. Yeah, I meant poker bonus whoring, not sportsbook bonus whoring. Sportsbook bonuses are a lot harder to clear than poker bonuses. You do play online poker, right? Hard to imagine you'd end up at this site if you didn't.
    So Id deposit my money into a site and the move it all over to my cash account using poker? Then I withdraw and do it over again?
  8. #8
    You'd stop betting sports for awhile and play poker or blackjack instead until you build your roll up enough to bet sports comfortably (risking 1-2%). You'd deposit as much $ as you're comfortable gambling with at a poker/casino site, play until you clear the bonus, then cash out, deposit at a different site, rinse, repeat. I'm not up on on the best bonuses at the moment, but casino bonuses usually clear faster. If you're a decent poker player though, you can make money in addition to the bonus by grinding away at the microlimit tables. FTR has some good info on poker bonuses (I think Prima might be best right now?) and casinobonuswhores.com and beatingbonuses.com are decent sites but always read the Terms & Conditions at the websites before you deposit and make sure they match what the sites tell you. euphoricism has a thread in the Poker Etcetera forum in which he talks about some casino whoring. And I think bigspenda's done some recently too.
  9. #9
    Parlay (2 Teams)
    Broncos(Denver) -150
    Chargers(SanDiego) -400

    Lakers(LA) -235


    well 1-1 for the night. Lakers couldn't stop the momentum that WASH. threw down that night, but they did try hard.
  10. #10
    Mavericks(Dallas) -175
    Wizards(Washington) -175


    1-1 apparently the wizards couldn't handle nuggets team without there better players even after the destruction over LA. Shows the inconsistency in the team.
  11. #11
    ensign_lee's Avatar
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    If you're going to bet on NFL favorites, just lay the points. The points matter so few times, it's ridiculous. Rather than get your measly payout tha tyou got on DEN and SD, you could have gotten +275 at reduced juice with BetTrojan or +260 with any other book.
  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by ensign_lee
    If you're going to bet on NFL favorites, just lay the points. The points matter so few times, it's ridiculous. Rather than get your measly payout tha tyou got on DEN and SD, you could have gotten +275 at reduced juice with BetTrojan or +260 with any other book.
    Thanks for pointing that out. I'm starting to notice that more and more the teams either win big or not at all especially with the favorites.

    also right now my current goal is to hit $250 and then move to pinnacle as sportsbetting is a crappy bookie.
  13. #13
    $250, what's your roll at? That could be a long grind if you're gonna be m/l favorites forever.
  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    $250, what's your roll at? That could be a long grind if you're gonna be m/l favorites forever.
    my roll is at 60 right now. I've tripled it in two months. Hopefully it keeps going up. Luckily I'm also a patient man.

    This is for 12/21
    Pistons(Detroit) +3
    Kings(Sacramento) -180
  15. #15
    Blazers(Portland) -165
    Lakers(LA) +130

    5.00/9.77
    Jazz(Utah) -280
    Pacers(Indiana) -135
    Spurs(SanAntonio) -400

    Wizards(Washington) +10.5 (-105)


    note to self to never do parlays esp. not three team ones.
  16. #16

    Hawks(Atlanta) +10.5
    Warriors(GoldenState) +6


    agreed with zook

    Warriors(GoldenState) +200 hopefully this ill be covered by the line if they lose by 6 or less
    Pacers(Indiana) -190
  17. #17
    Colts(Indianapolis) -440
    Bengals(Cincinnati) +145


    0-4 this night wasn't good.
  18. #18
    running BR total would be nice Short
  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    running BR total would be nice Short
    alright will do. I'll start that in '07 with my spreadsheet that I plan on doing too.


    Lakers(LA) +1 (-115)


    If the laker's don't win I'm going back to poker to get some more winnings.
  20. #20
    Well guys. The lakers didn't pull out today as I thought they would. This left my BR at $21.57. I cashed out. I realize I'm probably not very respected here, but I still like this as it allows me to talk to myself.

    I have some bonus whoring I did at bodog, I just need to play some more poker to get my poker points up. Hopefully I can move some money around and get back into this.

    At one point my BR hit $72.45. The lowest it went was $21.57 where I cashed out a dollar ahead.

    I think I have $40 that I can put back into this soon. At least I hope so. I realize that my BR isn't too big but I can't say I've ever lost in my streaks. Sadly I don't last seasons as I refuse to go negative.

    With my next run I'll also post my YTD record which this time around I didn't.

    Happy Holidays!
  21. #21
    Short, I really do not know what to tell you. It's hard to build a bankroll betting m/l favorites. First of all, you played that Lakers line way too soon. You picked it over a day in advance. So much can change. Had you waited you might have come across Lee's post on the wicked line movement in the game. Tell you this, when Lee goes "WTF" I listen.

    I'll admit I do not know much about sportsbetting but I have properly bankrolled myself and am up about 25 units overall. I would suggest next time you start back up that you analyze these games better, look at public money, line moves, public perception, etc...

    By putting in the time and effort and not just looking at a game and going "hey, that looks good to me" you earn the respect it seems you would like.
  22. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    Short, I really do not know what to tell you. It's hard to build a bankroll betting m/l favorites. First of all, you played that Lakers line way too soon. You picked it over a day in advance. So much can change. Had you waited you might have come across Lee's post on the wicked line movement in the game. Tell you this, when Lee goes "WTF" I listen.

    I'll admit I do not know much about sportsbetting but I have properly bankrolled myself and am up about 25 units overall. I would suggest next time you start back up that you analyze these games better, look at public money, line moves, public perception, etc...

    By putting in the time and effort and not just looking at a game and going "hey, that looks good to me" you earn the respect it seems you would like.
    I'm not here to earn respect so much as earn money. But obviously if your earning money your probably respected. I have been looking at covers.com and now I'm try to familiarize myself with all the new stuff to this. I just need to learn how to understand the information.

    I always bet early because I figured that the public doesn't know whats best. They just bet on whatever they want. The bookie then changes there odds if one gets too much. IE the public favors one side. That doesn't mean that the team will win or lose anymore than before so I just assumed the public movement doesn't mean much. I'm still unsure how it should? Are you saying you rely and trust the publics decisions?

    right now I'm working with "play money'. I'm just writing down my bets and seeing the results. Trying to learn more and figure out the whole statistical side to all of this.
  23. #23
    ensign_lee's Avatar
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    Hey shortstacked. Sorry I haven't had a chance to reply too much in your threads. Don't get too down; we all run into rough patches. And if it's better for your pysche to cash out, then by all means do so. Better to keep the money you earned than lose money, right?

    As far as learning, DON'T GO TO COVERS!!! That is one of the worst places I know of to learn. They feed you blatant misinformation and their articles are (to say the least) pieces of crap. Honestly, I sometimes think that they post things to encourage their users to lose (as they work off of affiliate fees). DO NOT LEARN SPORTSBETTING AT COVERS!!!

    As for betting early, that's up to everyone's discretion. Personally, I find I get completely owned on all my 'first impulses', picking like a sorry 20-30% (indeed it would probably be better to fade my 'early leans' ). However, maybe picking early works for you. I know at least a few handicappers who do so. Just find what works.

    I factor in where the public is on a certain game a lot into my bets now (whereas I used to basically ignore it). I feel that it gives a lot of insight, and so that's why I usually wait until later to bet.

    Doing what you're doing with 'play money' is very smart of you. I know of very few handicappers who are disciplined enough to do that. By doing so, you can see whether or not you really want to pursue this (and just how expensive or inexpensive it will be). Kudos to you for doing so.

    If you ever have any questions, just ask. I (and I'm sure everyone else here at FTR) am more than happy to help.
  24. #24
    Good post lee. To clarify one point though, lee is talking about the FORUMS on covers.com. NOT the statistical info, public betting numbers, trends, etc. Covers is a great site for all that stuff.
  25. #25
    ensign_lee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zook
    Good post lee. To clarify one point though, lee is talking about the FORUMS on covers.com. NOT the statistical info, public betting numbers, trends, etc. Covers is a great site for all that stuff.
    whoops. Probably should have made that more clear. Yeah; Don't go to the FORUMS at covers!

    The raw data? Much different story.
  26. #26
    Just so I can learn now with my fake money. So where do you guys get your information on the "public" then. So lee you watch what the public does(at covers.com) and if team A starts out as the favored but then changes to the underdog you will bet for team A because the public did? I made this mistake on Christmas with going with the laker's and I guess it's time now to learn how this public part is done. Are you making most of your bets on whatever the publics movement is?
  27. #27
    I'll try to explain this as well as I can.

    Say team A is a favored by 5 pts. That means the line will look like this

    Team A -5 (-110)
    Team B +5(-110)

    Say 80% of the money is bet on team A. THEORETICALLY, the spread should INCREASE (say to -5.5 or -6) to even out the money. However, sometimes, the spreads decreases (say to -4.5 or -4). This makes people like me believe the sportsbook wants even MORE money on Team A because they feel Team B has a chance to either win or cover their spread. Therefore we would want to bet TEAM B.

    I look at 3 sights: wagerline.com, sportsbook.com, and sportsinsights.com
    Look at my thread "Operation don't be a sucker" for the reverse line moves.
  28. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    I'll try to explain this as well as I can.

    Say team A is a favored by 5 pts. That means the line will look like this

    Team A -5 (-110)
    Team B +5(-110)

    Say 80% of the money is bet on team A. THEORETICALLY, the spread should INCREASE (say to -5.5 or -6) to even out the money. However, sometimes, the spreads decreases (say to -4.5 or -4). This makes people like me believe the sportsbook wants even MORE money on Team A because they feel Team B has a chance to either win or cover their spread. Therefore we would want to bet TEAM B.

    I look at 3 sights: wagerline.com, sportsbook.com, and sportsinsights.com
    Look at my thread "Operation don't be a sucker" for the reverse line moves.
    in reality when this happens it's called a reverse line movement and we should bet on the team A still even though the books are trying to make us go for team b?
  29. #29
    In my example you should bet team B. You should bet opposite of the team the books are trying to entice the public to bet on.
  30. #30
    ensign_lee's Avatar
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    In bigspenda's example, you should bet Team B because the books want you to bet Team A.

    Now, I'd like to make one correction to bigspenda's illustration (although it was very good. Good job!). It's not that 80% of the MONEY is going on Team A. It's that 80% of the BETS are going on Team A.

    Bets do not necessarily = money.

    For those that don't believe in 'trap games', what is happening in reverse line movement examples is that more MONEY is on Team B, but more BETS are on Team A. Because 'sharper' players would tend to bet more, it would stand to reason that 'sharp money' is on Team B and THAT'S why the line moves the way it does (to balance the money).

    That make sense?
  31. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by ensign_lee
    In bigspenda's example, you should bet Team B because the books want you to bet Team A.

    Now, I'd like to make one correction to bigspenda's illustration (although it was very good. Good job!). It's not that 80% of the MONEY is going on Team A. It's that 80% of the BETS are going on Team A.

    Bets do not necessarily = money.

    For those that don't believe in 'trap games', what is happening in reverse line movement examples is that more MONEY is on Team B, but more BETS are on Team A. Because 'sharper' players would tend to bet more, it would stand to reason that 'sharp money' is on Team B and THAT'S why the line moves the way it does (to balance the money).

    That make sense?
    slightly, but once I see more examples of it by watching the lines using sites like wagerline and what not it will probably click completely. Also are there any sites that I can gamble with using play money other than wagerline? I don't really like there setup.
  32. #32
    I think I used to mess around on a site called pickspal. Not really sure what it's all about but I still get spam from them all the time.
  33. #33
    ensign_lee's Avatar
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    Shortstacked. Just keep an active record on this forum and everything will be ok. Excel is also your friend.
  34. #34
    well I guess I'll throw my fake money ones on here too;

    FAKE MONEY starting now.

    Started with $21.57 and bet
    10/9.09 on jets +2.5

    Total 30.66

    for tonights BBall I have
    5/4.55 Pick CHI to win
    5/4.35 Clip Vs Jazz under 198
    5/4.55 GS -6
    5/4.55 DEN -6
    5/2.00 GS to win


    YTD
    NFL
    1-0
    NBA
    Spread ?-?
    ML ?-?
  35. #35
    Cool. But you should start with a bigger fake bankroll

    Seriously though, if you're going to simulate picks, you might as well simulate proper BR management too. Also, if you have the time you should post why you're making the picks. That will give us a way to critique them and let you look back at what kinds of reasoning work and don't work for you.
  36. #36
    ensign_lee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zook
    Cool. But you should start with a bigger fake bankroll

    Seriously though, if you're going to simulate picks, you might as well simulate proper BR management too. Also, if you have the time you should post why you're making the picks. That will give us a way to critique them and let you look back at what kinds of reasoning work and don't work for you.
    What he said. The easiest way to do it I think would be to give yourself a fake bankroll of $1000. That would mean that 1 unit = 1 % = $10. And then you can either flat bet it at 2 units the entire way or try to vary your bet sizes (if you're just starting, I advocate the first one).

    Then see where you go from there.
  37. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by zook
    Cool. But you should start with a bigger fake bankroll

    Seriously though, if you're going to simulate picks, you might as well simulate proper BR management too. Also, if you have the time you should post why you're making the picks. That will give us a way to critique them and let you look back at what kinds of reasoning work and don't work for you.

    Could not agree more...

    Make it a good even number, say $1k with a unit being $10. I also think you need to start stating your reasons. This is the only way people may ever listen to your picks and gives these guys some material to critque your picks. Anyone can come in here and type some teams and lines, you need to back the picks up.
  38. #38
    ensign_lee's Avatar
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    Haha. I like how bigspenda and I thought the exact same thing. Have I corrupted the rest of y'all so thoroughly?
  39. #39
    alright thanks guys. I'm ready to start this off. I started with a bankroll of 1,000. I really appreciate the help you guys are giving me thank you very much. I'd also like to thank lee , zook, and bigspenda for the picks. I sometimes take yours and use them for my own thank you very much.

    YTD
    5-1
    +2.9 units

    and I'm still looking for tonights picks. If I picked right now

    wash -4.5 and the over 206.5 / Arenas is just on fire along with his team
    detroit -5.5 / new york kincks arent doing to well and pistons want to take the east by force
    sac -6.5 / 76ers flat out are pathetic. Even though they will want a win, I saw how they play tonight with GS and there aren't even playing andre miller a lot.

    Hopefully I'll see how the public does tom. with these and see what you guys think too.
  40. #40
    I like all three of your plays. I'm on the first two myself actually. Don't mind the third one, but I think the Sixers have a chance in Sacramento after getting thoroughly embarrassed last night. Probably not though.
  41. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by zook
    I like all three of your plays. I'm on the first two myself actually. Don't mind the third one, but I think the Sixers have a chance in Sacramento after getting thoroughly embarrassed last night. Probably not though.
    the sixer line now moved from 6.5 to 8 and I was already iffy about it with the kings. I'm not going to touch that one anymore. Sixers too inconsistent to know if they will want the win hard enough to grab it or not.


    1 unit Pistons - 5.5 / 9.52
    1 unit Wizards -5.5 / 9.09


    YTD
    6-2
    +2.9 units

    as for tomorrow I'm looking at these
    suns/Dallas over is really looking great. Hopefully the books wont change it too much by tom otherwise ill skip it. Otherwise the spread for suns is hot to me. But I'm emotionally attached to the suns so unless someone else agrees I wont bet that.

    Otherwise I'm looking at the nuggets to take it by 8 but the sonics make a lot of shots. Either way I got my lovely suns to watch tom and see them beat Dallas who they lost to last year in the playoffs. Then I get to see AI play with his new team.

    12/28
    Phoenix Suns +2 @ 1 unit
    Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Over 215 (-105)
  42. #42
    well I was gone on a trip and I'm about to leave again for disneyland. Hopefully I can get full swing and get really into this once the quarter starts. Remember I'm still with funny money.

    1/2/07

    1 unit Nuggets -7.5
    1 unit GS -3


    I like this, but wont bet it just saying it to see what others think:

    GS vs Hornets OVER 199.5

    I was also thinking about putting $1000 into some bookie and I was curious as to what bookie you guys would recommend I start with. I was assuming Pinnacle, but I'm curious what you guys have to say.
  43. #43
    Pinny's good b/c they typically charge less juice. There are many threads in the forum about this topic bud but I think Pinny is the overall consesnsus.
  44. #44
    ensign_lee's Avatar
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    I'd go with either Pinnacle or Matchbook if you're going to go with one book. Actually, this topic will probably come up a lot. I think I'm going to go and make a sticky.
  45. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by ShortStacked
    1/2/07

    1 unit Nuggets + 7.5
    1 unit GS -3


    I like this, but wont bet it just saying it to see what others think:

    GS vs Hornets OVER 199.5
    I like these sides, no opinion on the total. Wanted to point out that the Nuggets line is - 7.5 not +7.5. I'll probably put a unit on that one too... Nugs at home vs. a terrible Philly team and it's a revenge game for AI.
  46. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by zook
    Quote Originally Posted by ShortStacked
    1/2/07

    1 unit Nuggets + 7.5
    1 unit GS -3


    I like this, but wont bet it just saying it to see what others think:

    GS vs Hornets OVER 199.5
    I like these sides, no opinion on the total. Wanted to point out that the Nuggets line is - 7.5 not +7.5. I'll probably put a unit on that one too... Nugs at home vs. a terrible Philly team and it's a revenge game for AI.
    Thanks for your input. I also made a mistake on this site and not my spreadsheet, but thanks for catching that.

    Quote Originally Posted by ensign_lee
    I'd go with either Pinnacle or Matchbook if you're going to go with one book. Actually, this topic will probably come up a lot. I think I'm going to go and make a sticky.
    Yes if you did I'd greatly appreciate that. Right now I wanna get into one bookie and when I make some profit later grab another one for odds searching.
  47. #47
    01/02/2007
    1 unit Denver Nuggets -7½ / 8.70
    1 unit Golden State Warriors -3 / 8.70
    1 unit GS vs Hornets OVER 197 / 9.1
    01/05/2007
    1 unit Lakers +4 / 9.1
    1 unit Mavs -8.5 / 9.1

    YTD(with free money):
    Spreads 3-1
    Over/Under 0-1
    Units +3.7

    Tomorrows bets:

    I'm doing something different in that I'm learning how betting trends work with my fake money. So yes this is WAY TOO MANY bets for one night, but just testing the market and seeing how it works out.

    1 unit Timberwolves -7.5 /9.1
    1 unit under 76ers v Wolves 186.5 / 9.1
    1 unit Mavs v. Spurs under 185.5 / 9.1
    1 unit bucks -4 / 9.1
    1 unit bucks v. cavs over 205.5 / 9.1
    1 unit lakers -5.5 / 9.1
    1 unit lakers v nuggets over 213.5 / 9.1


    YTD(with free money):
    Spreads 5-3
    Over/Under 2-3
    Units +4.4
  48. #48
    for tomorrow
    1 unit Kings -8.5
    1 unit LAC -4
    1 unit Pistons vs Bulls under 191
    1 unit Colts -7 *
    1 unit Sonics vs Warriors under 217


    YTD(with free money):
    Spreads 5-5
    Over/Under 3-4
    Units +3.2

    *thank you FTR for the pick
  49. #49
    1 unit Phoenix Suns -12 the last few spreads I've watched the suns tear up when the numbers are double digits so I'm gonna try my chances tom with this one.
    1 unit Spurs vs Wolves under 211 SA is very defensive and solid. They arent there to make magic just there to win so theres no need for them to go putting points everywhere.
    1 unit Spurs -7.5 SA will be ready to get back into a run after losing to dallas and I think it will show tom.
    1 unit Mavs vs Lakers over 204.5 with Kobe and Nowitzki going to head to head I think this one should be fast paced and high scoring.
    1 unit wizards +2 WAS always seems to be an underdog and they end up winning a lot at it. Hopefully tom. night will be more of the same.

    YTD(with free money):
    Spreads 7-6
    Over/Under 5-4
    Units +5.6
  50. #50
    The bucks vs nugets line opened with bucks +3 which I thought was very weird. Now it's moved to the nuggets -2.5. Does this mean I should bet on the bucks spread?
  51. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by ShortStacked
    The bucks vs nugets line opened with bucks +3 which I thought was very weird. Now it's moved to the nuggets -2.5. Does this mean I should bet on the bucks spread?
    I think you meant it opened at Nuggets +3. That was only at Pinny it looks like (BetCris opened at -2.5), and they increased the juice really high in a hurry. And then they moved it right to -2.5. Something weird is going on at Pinny with that line, but I'm not sure what it is. Can't draw any betting conclusions from it I don't think...
  52. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by zook
    Quote Originally Posted by ShortStacked
    The bucks vs nugets line opened with bucks +3 which I thought was very weird. Now it's moved to the nuggets -2.5. Does this mean I should bet on the bucks spread?
    I think you meant it opened at Nuggets +3. That was only at Pinny it looks like (BetCris opened at -2.5), and they increased the juice really high in a hurry. And then they moved it right to -2.5. Something weird is going on at Pinny with that line, but I'm not sure what it is. Can't draw any betting conclusions from it I don't think...
    ya your right on what I meant. I thought I might've found something about moving lines I could learn from. Guess not.
  53. #53

    1 unit SA -11
    1 unit PHO -14.5
    1 unit DAL -1
    1 unit LAL -2.5
    1 unit DET -2
    1 unit LAL vs MEM U 224.5


    YTD(with free money):
    Spreads 10-8
    Over/Under 5-5
    Units +5.3


    no idea why the DET line is so small.
  54. #54
    1 unit NOH vs ATL O 177.5
    1 unit LAL -5
    1 unit WAS -3
    1 unit LAL vs HOU O 194.5
    1 unit NOH M/L
    1 unit TOR M/L


    YTD(with free money):
    Spreads 11-9
    Over/Under 5-7
    Line Dogs 1-0
    Line Favs 1-0
    Units +6.4
  55. #55
    2 unit DAL - 4
    1 unit HOU - 2.5
    1 unit TOR -5
    1 unit MIN vs MEM U 217
    1 unit TOR v BOS O 190
    1 unit DAL v IND O 187

    YTD(with free money):
    Spreads 13-10
    Over/Under 6-9
    Line Dogs 1-0
    Line Favs 1-0
    Units +5.5
  56. #56
    Hey thought I'd drop by and give ya some props. You're doing well man. Here's my question: when you start using real money again are you going to be placing this many bets each day or will you be lookng for just the most exploitable lines?
  57. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    Hey thought I'd drop by and give ya some props. You're doing well man. Here's my question: when you start using real money again are you going to be placing this many bets each day or will you be lookng for just the most exploitable lines?
    I'll probably tighten up. I'm playing a lot with over unders and trying to see if I can grasp them. Not working so well but thats why its fake money. Yes I will tighten down with real money. Not sure when that will be as right now I'm kind of scared to put my grand anywhere.

    watching the pistons line and hoping to grab and over under to try to get better at those.

    3 unit HOU +2
    1 unit PHI -1
    1 unit LAC -3
    1 unit NOH +5
    1 unit NOH vs MIL U 184
    1 unit MEM v CHI O 223

    if the HOU loses im done with 1+ unit plays for a while.

    YTD(with free money):
    Spreads 14-12
    Over/Under 6-10
    Line Dogs 1-0
    Line Favs 1-0
    Units +5.2
  58. #58
    2 units Dallas Mavericks -230
    2 units Seattle Seahawks +9
    2 units NE vs.SD Over 47

    made a unit today from my bets. Sadly the game didnt go over as expected. This was real money.
  59. #59
    Yesterday I made a pick for TOR to win and that won. I'm now up 1.8 units of real money. I've started using my bodog real money again. As for today I'm liking the dallas moneyline, but well see what I pick later.
  60. #60
    5 units Dallas Mavericks -360
    1 unit New Orleans Hornets +6½

    *NTS* never bet fav dogs again it's lame and risky

    Real Money
    Spread 2-0
    +5.4 units

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